(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Tulowitzki, Grandal, C. Johnson, Papelbon, Haren
Mar 26 2015
Health the only question for Tulowitzki ... Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) is clearly one of the game's top hitters when healthy, but therein lies the problem. A torn labrum in his left hip ended his 2014 season in July, adding to the long list of injuries that have knocked him out. Is it worth the risk to invest in him in 2015? Let's take a look.
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2010 470 27/11 .315 .309 9 83 45/15/40 33 137 158 142 17% 2011 537 30/9 .302 .307 10 85 42/20/39 31 131 150 126 17% 2012 181 8/2 .287 .286 10 90 46/17/37 29 106 107 98 13% 2013 446 25/1 .312 .288 11 81 42/21/38 34 123 148 147 18% 2014 315 21/1 .340 .310 14 82 38/23/39 36 150 170 164 21%
Tulowitzki's skills are elite, but the AB column shows that his F Health Grade is well-deserved:
- He doesn't strike out that often, and outside of a small sample 2012 season, all of his power metrics are well above average. Factor in Coors Field and his position, and it's easy to see why owners pay top dollar for him on an annual basis.
- Speaking of his home park, it obviously inflates offensive numbers across the board, but his success there in 2014 likely isn't repeatable. He hit .417/.497/.748 at home with a 43 percent hit rate, and 25 percent of his fly balls there left the park.
- He has a history of above average hit rates, but his 36 percent mark from 2014 was a career high. He'll certainly be an asset in the batting average category, but it's doubtful he'll hit .340 again.
Tulowitzki has earned the injury-prone label by averaging 363 plate appearances over the past three seasons, making everyone forget he averaged 573 the previous five seasons. It's not going to get any easier to stay healthy as he progresses through his thirties, but it's clear that his skills are as strong as ever, and he's a virtual lock to return first round value if he stays on the field. Maintaining his pace from a season ago is probably unrealistic, but .300/30/100 would be very attainable. In shallower formats, where replacement value is pretty high, it's pretty tempting to gamble on the upside. If you take a chance on Tulowitzki in deeper leagues, it's probably wise to invest in a solid backup plan early on.
Is Grandal ready to bust out? ... A 50-game PED suspension and torn ACL ruined the 2013 season of Yasmani Grandal (C, LA). Upon his return in 2014, he got off to a painfully slow start before righting the ship in the second half. Can he build off of that success?
Year AB HR BA xBA OPSvL bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== ===== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2012* 386 12 .281 .248 .971 13 79 53/17/30 33 116 102 87 17% 2013* 124 1 .221 .255 .752 13 77 48/24/28 28 117 94 112 5% 2014 377 15 .225 .242 .512 13 69 43/19/38 28 108 139 132 15% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 14 1H 161 6 .193 .227 .484 11 69 44/18/38 24 107 124 146 14% 14 2H 216 9 .250 .250 .524 15 70 42/21/38 32 109 150 122 15% *Includes MLEs
Last year's 1H/2H splits were mainly the product of a difference in hit rate, and the power Grandal displayed hints at breakout potential:
- He's always hit the ball hard, but he increased his fly balls, and the power metrics surged. His home run per fly ball rate may be difficult to maintain, but escaping PETCO Park is typically a good thing for a hitter.
- He struggled badly against left-handers, and may find himself on the bench quite often against them, in favor of right-handed hitting A.J. Ellis. He will be in the lineup regularly against right-handers, though, and he hit them well in 2014, batting .241 with 15 home runs and a 162 PX.
- The jump in power was probably related to the increase in strikeouts, which puts his batting average at risk going forward. But his second half numbers and xBA history provide some optimism, and his high walk rate increases his value in OBP leagues.
Grandal, who peaked as the 39th ranked prospect in the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst, is intriguing for a variety of reasons heading into 2015. He's at a peak age, is another year removed from ACL surgery, displayed impressive power throughout last season, and is moving to a slightly more favorable park for hitters. It wouldn't be at all surprising for him to take a step forward, and return a significant profit on a modest draft day price.
Johnson a boring option at the hot corner ... After hitting .321 in 2013, Chris Johnson (3B, ATL) predictably saw his batting average drop off significantly in 2014. Is any sort of rebound in store?
Year AB HR BA xBA OPSvR bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== ===== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2010* 490 17 .297 .274 .848 4 76 41/24/35 36 102 127 117 13% 2011* 459 10 .246 .248 .681 5 72 46/23/31 32 106 108 110 8% 2012 488 15 .281 .254 .819 6 73 39/26/35 36 98 120 112 12% 2013 514 12 .321 .268 .772 5 77 46/27/28 40 97 104 101 11% 2014 582 10 .263 .244 .570 4 73 48/27/25 35 83 83 74 9% *Includes MLEs
Nothing in the chart above suggests that Johnson will put up much better numbers in 2015:
- He has a history of beating his xBA, as his line drive stroke has consistently kept his hit rate well above average. However, the odds are against him getting it back to the 40 percent level that fueled his 2013 batting average.
- The low, and still dropping, fly ball rate leaves him with a fairly low power ceiling. All of his power metrics have fallen considerably over the past two seasons, and there's no reason to expect much improvement in that department.
- He was a mess against right-handers last year, posting a .231/.256/.314 line in 468 at-bats. The three-year extension he signed last year will give him a fairly long leash, but if he doesn't bounce back, his playing time could be at risk, especially if the Braves go into rebuild mode.
Johnson has been a serviceable option at third base in recent years, but he's not going to rebound to his 2013, or even 2012, level of production. He'll hit for a decent average thanks to a high line drive rate, but given how few fly balls he's been hitting, he's no guarantee to reach double digits in home runs. He'll get the lion's share of playing time at third base, but with little power, and in a weak lineup, he makes for a rather unattractive option.
Signs of decline hiding behind Papelbon's low ERA ... Jonathan Papelbon (RHP, PHI) continues to get the job done, as he's never landed on the disabled list, and has saved at least 29 games in every season since 2006. Sounds pretty reliable, right? Let's investigate.
Year Sv IP ERA xERA WHIP Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f Vel BPV ==== == == ==== ==== ==== === ==== === === === ======== == == ==== ==== === 2010 37 67 3.90 3.63 1.27 3.8 10.2 2.7 63% 13% 38/18/44 31 72 9% 94.9 98 2011 31 64 2.94 2.47 0.93 1.4 12.2 8.7 68% 18% 38/21/41 33 68 5% 95.0 197 2012 38 70 2.44 2.84 1.06 2.3 11.8 5.1 62% 13% 41/18/40 31 83 12% 93.8 169 2013 29 62 2.92 3.58 1.14 1.6 8.3 5.2 64% 11% 40/17/43 31 78 8% 92.0 124 2014 39 66 2.04 3.25 0.90 2.0 8.5 4.2 64% 13% 42/16/42 26 78 3% 91.3 119 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 1H 18 32 1.39 3.72 0.93 2.5 7.8 3.1 70% 13% 35/16/49 25 83 0% 91.4 86 14 2H 21 34 2.65 2.81 0.88 1.6 9.3 5.8 58% 12% 49/15/36 27 71 6% 91.1 151
Papelbon isn't as dominant as he used to be, but his BPIs are still solid:
- He had posted a Dom of 10.0 or better each year between 2007-12, but it's been a little under a batter an inning in each of the past two seasons. The drop in velocity looks to be the most alarming trend, and could soon lead to fewer swings and misses, and in turn, further Dom erosion.
- He has a history of inducing a high amount of infield fly balls, and for keeping his home run per fly ball rate below the usual 10 percent threshold. Last year was a little extreme, though, and he got some hit rate fortune as well. ERA regression is pretty much guaranteed, possibly by a lot.
- His Ctl has been outstanding over the past few seasons, but in the second half, it wasn't supported by first pitch strike rate, which dropped significantly. He'll need to get ahead in the count more going forward, or he'll likely surrender more free passes.
Papelbon has been one of the most consistent and reliable closers in recent memory, and has a firm grip on the closer role heading into the 2015 season. However, though it's not showing up in the ERA column, he's showing some signs of decline. The most notable blemishes in his skill set are the drops in his fastball velocity and his Dom. He carries increased risk at this point in his career, and even more so for NL-only owners that would lose him if he's traded to the American League when the Phillies are out of contention.
Haren a risky investment ... Dan Haren (RHP, MIA) had an ERA above 4.00 for the third consecutive year, though his 2014 mark was a dramatic improvement from his 4.67 ERA in 2013. What should we expect going forward?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f Vel BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== ==== === 2010 235 3.91 3.66 2.1 8.3 4.0 64% 11% 40/19/41 32 74 11% 90.6 111 2011 238 3.17 3.39 1.2 7.3 5.8 64% 10% 43/20/38 28 71 8% 90.0 118 2012 177 4.33 4.08 1.9 7.2 3.7 64% 9% 40/21/40 31 72 13% 88.5 96 2013 170 4.67 3.75 1.6 8.0 4.9 65% 10% 36/22/42 32 67 13% 88.9 114 2014 186 4.02 3.81 1.7 7.0 4.0 62% 8% 41/20/39 29 71 12% 87.7 98
Haren's Cmd remains excellent, but there are plenty of red flags:
- He's consistently been very stingy with the walks, and that's not likely to change much. However, last year's Ctl wasn't backed up by his first pitch strike rate, which dipped to it's lowest point since 2007.
- His velocity continues to slide, and it led to fewer swings and misses in 2014. There's further downside looming in the Dom department.
- His cutter is his most frequently used pitch, and batters have had a great deal of success against it the past few seasons. In 2014, he got just a nine percent swinging strike rate on the pitch. In the previous six years, it had been at 14 percent or above.
Haren toyed with the idea of retiring once he was traded to the East Coast, but he's set to be part of the Miami rotation in 2015. He actually finished strong in 2014, with a 2.43 ERA, and 6.3 Cmd (and 22 percent H%) over his final 10 starts. His recent ERA history, along with the decline in both his velocity and swinging strike rate, show that he carries plenty of risk. There are plenty of more attractive options when looking to fill out your staff.
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