(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Posey, Harrison, Broxton, Velasquez, Maurer
Aug 25 2016
Posey as reliable as they come ... Buster Posey (C, SF) has been the top catcher over the past several seasons, combining durability, power, and a consistently high batting average. He's in the midst of another fine season, but hasn't homered in his last 122 plate appearances. Is there any reason to adjust expectations?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === 2012 530 24/1 .336 .301 12 82 47/25/29 38 113 137 104 19% 84 2013 520 15/2 .294 .279 10 87 47/20/33 32 116 103 116 10% 82 2014 547 22/0 .311 .298 8 87 42/24/34 32 131 113 121 13% 81 2015 557 19/2 .318 .288 9 91 44/22/34 33 138 87 113 11% 58 2016 406 12/6 .291 .294 11 87 48/21/30 31 130 93 110 11% 86
Posey's skills remain rock solid:
- He hasn't been able to match last year's elite contact rate, but he still doesn't strike out often, and is a lock to keep hitting for a high average.
- He continues to make a lot of hard contact, and xPX has been pretty stable. On the flip side, he is hitting more ground balls than he has the past couple seasons, and his PX is below average for the second straight year.
- He entered the season with eight career stolen bases, but has been a surprising contributor on the base paths this season, with six steals in as many attempts. Given his below average speed, along with his track record in the category, owners shouldn't count on many more.
- Posey's at-bat totals are always high, as he handles a heavy workload behind the plate, plus sometimes mans first base when he's not catching.
As always, Posey is producing a high batting average along with solid power numbers, and he's even been active on the bases this year. His power metrics have fallen off slightly, so he'll have a hard time getting back to 20 home runs, and he can't really be expected to keep running. But with consistent, across the board production and lofty counting stats, Posey continues to be money in the bank at the one true scarce position.
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Leadoff spot boosts Harrison's value ... Josh Harrison (2B, PIT) seemed to be putting last year's disappointing season in the rearview mirror, as he was batting .327 on June 9, albeit with a 37 percent hit rate. Then came a two month long slump in which he hit .181/.212/.292 over 151 plate appearances, at which point Manager Clint Hurdle decided he'd be a good fit for the leadoff spot. Harrison's numbers have stabilized over the past few weeks, but can owners count on him to produce down the stretch?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === === === 2013* 356 6/16 .261 .276 4 85 47/19/35 29 122 103 122 99 34% 2014 520 13/18 .315 .284 4 84 37/24/39 35 116 121 117 122 20% 2015 418 4/10 .287 .263 4 83 42/25/34 34 105 77 97 106 17% 2016 415 4/16 .272 .252 3 85 44/20/36 31 98 63 103 142 19% *Includes MLEs
Harrison can probably help out a few different ways:
- He doesn't strike out very often, which provides a relatively high batting average floor. His xBA is on a downward trend, but this is the third straight year he's outperformed it by a pretty significant margin, so he's a good bet to keep his average around his current level.
- His success rate on the bases dipped to 56 percent last year, but is back up to 84 percent this season. His Spd score sits at a career best, and given his current spot in the lineup, Harrison should continue to be active on the bases.
- His lack of patience at the plate has resulted in a .300 on-base-percentage on the year, and puts a cap on his stolen base upside.
- He's not hitting for much power, and 2014 looks like a clear outlier in that facet of his game.
Harrison has had an up and down season, and did plenty of harm to owners who stuck with him over the course of his prolonged slump. Overall, though, he's been pretty valuable, hitting for a decent average, and rebounding in the stolen base category. Harrison's low on-base-percentage is a little concerning for his future outlook, but given that he appears to have locked down the leadoff spot, he should be a strong source of both runs and steals down the stretch.
Cutting down on the Ks key for Broxton ... Keon Broxton (OF, MIL) opened the season as the team's starting center fielder, but after starting 0 for 16 with 11 strikeouts, he was sent down to Triple-A. He's since been up and down a couple times, but in his most recent stint, he's batting .329/.436/.608 in 95 plate appearances. Can he sustain his recent success?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ====== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== === ==== === === ==== === === 2014* 407 10/18 .227 N/A 9 67 N/A N/A N/A 119 N/A N/A 133 N/A 2015* 491 7/31 .234 N/A 9 65 N/A N/A N/A 101 N/A N/A 158 N/A 16 AAA 178 8/18 .287 N/A 10 66 N/A 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 MLB 143 6/17 .238 .217 15 57 43/25/32 37 97 145 141 24% 114 38% *MLEs
The whiffs are still a major concern for Broxton:
- He strikes out at an extremely high rate, and despite the recent hot streak, the Ks will likely be a batting average drag.
- He's shown improved power this year, but with a low fly ball rate, he's had to depend on a high percentage of them clearing the fence. Even with a home park that increases right-handed home runs by 23 percent, he'll be hard-pressed to maintain his current pace.
- He's been running at every opportunity, and has been caught only once in the majors. He should remain a strong source of steals, but not elite, given his Spd score, and modest 72 percent success rate in his minor league career.
Broxton offers an enticing blend of power and speed, and has been hot since being called back up in late July. However, even during that stretch, he boasts an ugly 63 percent contact rate, and has benefited from a 47 percent hit rate. Broxton is likely to receive pretty consistent playing time the rest of the way, and could contribute quite a few home runs and steals. Just beware that his current pace in both categories is probably a little over his head, and that all the swings and misses could yield a very low batting average.
Velasquez making strides ... Vincent Velasquez (RHP, PHI) was turning heads with his early season performance, which included a 2.42 ERA and 11.0 Dom through his first eight starts. Since then, he's still recorded a lot of strikeouts, but has a 5.60 ERA across 14 starts. He's been especially shaky lately, with 19 earned runs allowed over 16 1/3 innings in his last three outings. What's the outlook going forward?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK Vel G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === ==== === === === ==== ======== == == ==== === 2015* 89 3.55 3.02 3.4 9.9 2.9 61% 11% 94.6 31/22/47 30 72 7% 108 2016 119 4.31 3.87 3.3 10.4 3.1 60% 12% 93.7 35/24/41 33 74 15% 110 *Includes MLEs
Velasquez isn't there yet, but offers a ton of upside:
- He's generating a lot of swings and misses, and should keep piling up the strikeouts.
- He issues his fair share of free passes, but not an alarming number for a high strikeout pitcher. With a FpK hovering around league average, walks aren't likely to be a huge problem for him.
- He was an extreme fly ball pitcher in 2015, but has improved slightly in that area this year. Unfortunately, a high percentage of the fly balls have resulted in home runs, but going forward, his 1.4 hr/9 should come down.
The surface numbers for Velasquez aren't great, but the 24-year-old has shown some promising signs in his first full season as a major league starter. His filthy stuff is undeniable, as he has a 16 strikeout performance on his resume, and has notched double digit swinging strikes in eight of 10 starts since coming off the disabled list in late June. Given that he's thrown 35 more innings than he did in 2015, and will surpass his career high in his next start, Velasquez doesn't have a lot of innings left in his arm this year. But while his fly ball tendencies mean that home runs will likely remain an issue, his swing-and-miss stuff sets the stage for a potential breakout in 2017.
Maurer back on track ... Since making the transition to a relief role in 2014, Brandon Maurer (RHP, SD) has had mixed results. He got off to a rough start this season, as he sported a 7.39 ERA through his first 30 appearances. He's turned things around, and is now serving as closer, but does he have the skills to succeed in the role?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK Vel G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ===== === ==== ==== === === === === === ==== ======== == == ==== === 2012* 138 3.71 3.88 3.2 6.9 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 34 73 N/A 80 2013# 137 5.95 5.38 3.3 7.3 2.2 59% 10% 92.8 44/19/37 35 63 15% 50 2014# 89 4.23 4.06 2.6 7.6 2.9 63% 10% 94.4 39/18/43 33 69 6% 84 2015 51 3.00 3.83 2.6 6.9 2.6 61% 13% 95.1 48/22/30 26 73 7% 78 2016 56 4.66 4.16 3.5 9.6 2.7 58% 12% 95.4 38/21/41 30 66 11% 94 *MLEs #Includes MLEs
The increase in strikeouts is a positive sign:
- Maurer's velocity continues to rise, and he's getting a lot of swings and misses for the second straight year. It didn't translate to a high Dom in 2015, but he's striking out more than a batter per inning this year.
- He had some major control issues early on, but since the beginning of June, has walked only six batters in 31 2/3 innings (1.7 Ctl). He's also had an above average FpK for three straight months, another indicator that his Ctl will continue to improve.
- He hasn't been able to repeat the ground ball tendencies he showed a season ago, nor the low home run per fly ball rate. With PETCO Park no longer playing as a pitcher's haven, he's likely to be bitten by the long ball from time to time.
Maurer's BPIs aren't overly impressive, but he's really turned things around after an awful start, posting a 1.93 ERA and 27/5 K/BB ratio over his last 27 appearances (28 innings). His early season control issues don't appear to be too much of a concern, and given his healthy SwK, the improved Dom looks sustainable. Maurer doesn't look like he'll be an elite closer, but he's better than his year-to-date numbers would indicate, and has a legitimate chance of proving himself worthy of handling ninth inning duties.
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