(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Papelbon, Polanco, K. Davis, Peavy, Prado
Aug 19 2015
Papelbon still effective … Jonathan Papelbon (RHP, WAS) was a dominant closer for several years before his velocity began to fade from 95 mph in his peak years to 92 mph in 2013 to 91 mph in 2014 and 2015. He carried a 1.81 ERA—a mark that would be his best since 2006—into play on August 19.
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H%/S% hr/f BPV ==== == ==== ==== === ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === 2010 67 3.90 3.63 3.8 10.2 2.7 63% 13% 38/18/44 31/72 9% 98 2011 64 2.94 2.47 1.4 12.2 8.7 68% 18% 38/21/41 33/68 5% 197 2012 70 2.44 2.84 2.3 11.8 5.1 62% 13% 41/18/40 31/83 12% 169 2013 62 2.92 3.58 1.6 8.3 5.2 64% 11% 40/17/43 31/78 8% 124 2014 66 2.04 3.25 2.0 8.5 4.2 64% 13% 42/16/42 26/78 3% 119 2015 45 1.81 3.06 1.6 8.7 5.4 67% 15% 50/18/33 28/88 10% 140
The underlying metrics are good, but not quite what they once were:
- After six consecutive years with a 10.0+ Dom, he appears to have settled in at just under 9.0. It’s encouraging to see that his SwK% has risen in each of the past two years.
- Papelbon has displayed good Ctl for most of his career and that has continued to be the case. It’s even more important that he pitch ahead in the count and limit free passes now that he has a smaller margin for error. His FpK% is about as good as it’s ever been.
- He has boosted his GB% significantly this year. Prior to 2015, he had a GB% better than 42% just once (49% GB% in 2008).
- An extremely fortunate S% has been a boon to his ERA, as evidenced by xERA.
It’s clear that Papelbon has made some necessary adjustments to try to compensate for the lost velocity. In the 34-year-old’s previous Facts/Flukes treatment, his history of inducing a large number of infield fly balls and its effect on stifling his hr/f was noted. Interestingly, his IFFB% has fallen 10% from 2014 (15%) and is 9% shy of his career mark. Sure enough, his hr/f has surged back to league average after residing at a very auspicious level in 2014. Papelbon still carries some risk, but he can mitigate that, at least somewhat, if he can maintain a strong GB% and continue to curb walks.
Polanco surging … Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) got off to a fast start on the basepaths, but the rest of his game didn’t exactly follow suit. Though his SB output has waned in the second half, he has stepped up his production in other areas. What’s going on here?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX Spd/SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== ======= ======= 2013* 252 4/11 .233 --- 10 85 --- 26 --- 74/-- 100/27% 2014# 551 12/26 .259 .253 8 80 50/19/31 31 84 86/87 105/25% 2015 418 7/20 .261 .254 10 80 46/19/35 31 105 89/97 122/24% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15-1H 257 3/17 .233 .245 9 78 50/20/31 29 93 74/80 113/35% 15-2H 161 4/3 .304 .266 12 83 40/19/41 35 125 110/122 129/11%
Polanco has made some notable strides from a skills perspective:
- Polanco’s ct% and HctX have both climbed in the second half. His BA has soared as a result of that and some good fortune with h%. His xBA warns that there is BA downside.
- His Spd remains above average, but his SBO% has dropped considerably in the 2H. One must wonder if his lack of success since April has caused him to get the greenlight less often (April: 100% SB% in 7 attempts; Since: 59% SB% in 22 attempts). His overall SB% so far this year is 69% (2014: 73%).
- Prior to June, Polanco had not shown much in the way of power. However, he posted a 112 xPX that month and has followed it with a 110 xPX in July and 140 xPX so far this month. This didn’t result in increased HR output in June or July due to poor hr/f luck (June: 0% hr/f; July: 4% hr/f). However, it’s a promising sign, especially when combined the 2H change in batted ball mix and slightly enhanced bb%.
Polanco has rebounded from a shaky, aside from SB, beginning to 2015. The 23-year-old still has work to do in order to reach his full potential, but the growth he has shown so far in the second half is certainly a step in the right direction. If Polanco can hold on to those 2H gains while improving his SB% and productivity vs. LHP, 2016 could be the year he takes that next step forward.
Davis providing power, little else … Power potential created a fair amount of hype around Khris Davis (OF, MIL) heading into the 2015 season. When healthy, he has delivered that aspect of his game, but it has come with a bad batting average. Is there any hope that Davis will become a more well-rounded player?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== ===== 2013 136 .279 .314 7 75 147 30 43/20/37 216 162 29% 11/ 3 2014 501 .244 .278 6 76 132 28 39/21/40 161 158 14% 22/ 4 2015 247 .239 .246 11 68 103 30 40/18/42 157 165 17% 12/ 2
The power is legit, but the BPIs raise serious concern about his BA:
- His xPX and PX is right in line with past performance. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, his average flyball and HR distance is 291 feet (same as 2014), which ranks 64th in MLB.
- A plunge in ct% and xBA is worrisome. However, it’s worth noting that he sported a 72% ct% in 148 first half AB. His 63% ct% in the 2H raises a red flag, but it’s also in a relatively small sample size (99 AB). Can he get back to his 2014 ct% or, better yet, his 2014 2H ct% (78%)?
- Davis has roughly average speed, but is capable of contributing a handful of SB per year. He doesn’t often try to steal, but he has been quite efficient when doing so (9 SB in 11 career attempts).
There is no denying the power that Davis possesses. The question is whether or not he can post a decent batting average. In order to do that, he’ll need to do a better job of making contact. Even if he can’t get all the way back to the 78% ct% he owned in the 2H of 2014, just recapturing his 2013-14 level would be a boon to his overall value. Interestingly, he has chased fewer pitches outside the zone this year than in the past (30% in 2013-14; 26% in 2015), so that’s at least a positive sign that maybe he can turn things around. Until he does, expect more of the same… 30 HR upside with a .240-ish BA.
Can Peavy right the ship? … Jake Peavy (RHP, SF) made two starts in April before hitting the disabled list with a back strain that kept him out of action until July 3. Can the veteran improve upon his 4.18 ERA over the final weeks of the season?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd SwK FpK hr/f G/L/F H%/S% BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ==== ======== ===== === 2011 112 4.92 3.68 1.9 7.7 4.0 10% 63% 8% 39/23/39 33/61 103 2012 219 3.37 3.82 2.0 8.0 4.0 10% 63% 10% 37/19/45 28/74 104 2013 145 4.17 4.00 2.2 7.5 3.4 9% 66% 10% 33/21/47 28/68 86 2014 203 3.73 4.12 2.8 7.0 2.5 10% 64% 9% 38/20/42 30/74 67 2015 56 4.18 4.34 2.6 6.6 2.6 8% 65% 8% 39/19/42 30/70 66
The underlying metrics give little reason for optimism:
- His FpK% suggests that his already slightly above average Ctl could receive a modest uptick.
- The strikeouts continue to dwindle. His Dom is now well below average and SwK% doesn’t hint at any enhancement on the horizon.
- His xERA continues to head down a negative track.
It’s clear that Peavy’s best days are behind him. As things stand now, this would be his third consecutive 4.00+ xERA, and it has risen in each of those years. Peavy’s 2014 2H (2.57 ERA, 3.80 xERA, 66% FpK% and 11% SwK% in 98 IP) gave a glimmer of hope that he might be able to put together a league average type campaign in 2015, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards.
Is Prado fading? … Martín Prado (2B/3B, MIA) has been a reliable performer for the past several years, but he has had a disappointing 2015. He has yet to sport an OPS above .696 in a given month this year. Is there reason for concern?
Year AB BA xBA ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX/xPX hr/f Spd/SBO HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === ==== == ======== ====== ==== ======= ===== 2011 551 .260 .263 91 87 27 51/15/35 77/71 8% 119/ 9% 13/ 4 2012 617 .301 .291 89 110 33 48/23/29 86/76 6% 125/11% 10/17 2013 609 .282 .290 91 111 29 48/22/30 85/89 8% 90/ 5% 14/ 3 2014 536 .282 .277 85 102 31 49/22/29 88/78 9% 123/ 3% 12/ 3 2015 360 .272 .257 86 95 31 47/24/29 55/65 4% 91/ 0% 4/ 0
Prado’s skills have declined a bit:
- After three straight years of elite ct%, Prado’s ct% slipped in 2014 and hasn’t recovered. That said, his 2015 ct% is still good.
- His previously mediocre power has diminished to well below average. His current xPX and PX would be career worsts. His hr/f seems out of place, but not terribly so, as his lifetime hr/f is 7% and his home stadium suppresses HR (-22% RHB HR). It’s also worth noting that his average FB and HR distance has been in a downturn (2013: 279 feet; 2014: 271 feet; 2015: 265 feet).
- He posted a BPV in the 73-83 range from 2008-13, but it has plummetted in 2014-15.
- His struggles vs. RHP have continued. He owns a career .735 OPS in 2,870 AB vs. RHP, but he mustered a .668 OPS vs. RHP in 424 AB a year ago and owns pitiful .641 OPS vs. RHP in 279 AB this year. If he can’t turn this around, it’s possible that it could eventually cost him playing time.
Prado was out of action from mid-June to mid-July due to a right shoulder sprain. Prior to the injury, he had a .272 xBA, 4 HR, 87 ct%, 101 HctX, 76 xPX and 37 BPV in 254 AB. He has a .206 xBA, 0 HR, 83% ct%, 80 HctX, 37 xPX and 2 BPV in 106 AB since. It’s certainly possible that the shoulder is still bothering him. If that’s the case, it’s doubtful that he’ll get markedly better over the final several weeks of 2015. At any rate, the underlying metrics are a bit worrisome.
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