(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Papelbon, Polanco, K. Davis, Peavy, Prado

Papelbon still effective … Jonathan Papelbon (RHP, WAS) was a dominant closer for several years before his velocity began to fade from 95 mph in his peak years to 92 mph in 2013 to 91 mph in 2014 and 2015. He carried a 1.81 ERA—a mark that would be his best since 2006—into play on August 19.

Year  IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%/S%  hr/f  BPV
​====  ==  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  === 
2010  67  3.90  3.63  3.8  10.2  2.7  63%  13%  38/18/44  31/72    9%   98 
2011  64  2.94  2.47  1.4  12.2  8.7  68%  18%  38/21/41  33/68    5%  197 
2012  70  2.44  2.84  2.3  11.8  5.1  62%  13%  41/18/40  31/83   12%  169 
2013  62  2.92  3.58  1.6   8.3  5.2  64%  11%  40/17/43  31/78    8%  124 
2014  66  2.04  3.25  2.0   8.5  4.2  64%  13%  42/16/42  26/78    3%  119 
2015  45  1.81  3.06  1.6   8.7  5.4  67%  15%  50/18/33  28/88   10%  140   

The underlying metrics are good, but not quite what they once were:

• After six consecutive years with a 10.0+ Dom, he appears to have settled in at just under 9.0. It’s encouraging to see that his SwK% has risen in each of the past two years.
• Papelbon has displayed good Ctl for most of his career and that has continued to be the case. It’s even more important that he pitch ahead in the count and limit free passes now that he has a smaller margin for error.  His FpK% is about as good as it’s ever been.
• He has boosted his GB% significantly this year. Prior to 2015, he had a GB% better than 42% just once (49% GB% in 2008).
• An extremely fortunate S% has been a boon to his ERA, as evidenced by xERA.

It’s clear that Papelbon has made some necessary adjustments to try to compensate for the lost velocity. In the 34-year-old’s previous Facts/Flukes treatment, his history of inducing a large number of infield fly balls and its effect on stifling his hr/f was noted. Interestingly, his IFFB% has fallen 10% from 2014 (15%) and is 9% shy of his career mark. Sure enough, his hr/f has surged back to league average after residing at a very auspicious level in 2014. Papelbon still carries some risk, but he can mitigate that, at least somewhat, if he can maintain a strong GB% and continue to curb walks.

 

Polanco surging … Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) got off to a fast start on the basepaths, but the rest of his game didn’t exactly follow suit. Though his SB output has waned in the second half, he has stepped up his production in other areas. What’s going on here?

Year   AB  HR/SB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX  PX/xPX   Spd/SBO
====  ===  =====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  =======
2013* 252   4/11  .233   ---   10   85     ---    26   ---   74/--   100/27%
2014# 551  12/26  .259  .253    8   80  50/19/31  31    84   86/87   105/25%
2015  418   7/20  .261  .254   10   80  46/19/35  31   105   89/97   122/24%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
15-1H 257   3/17  .233  .245    9   78  50/20/31  29    93   74/80   113/35%
15-2H 161   4/3   .304  .266   12   83  40/19/41  35   125  110/122  129/11%

Polanco has made some notable strides from a skills perspective:

• Polanco’s ct% and HctX have both climbed in the second half. His BA has soared as a result of that and some good fortune with h%. His xBA warns that there is BA downside.
• His Spd remains above average, but his SBO% has dropped considerably in the 2H. One must wonder if his lack of success since April has caused him to get the greenlight less often (April: 100% SB% in 7 attempts; Since: 59% SB% in 22 attempts). His overall SB% so far this year is 69% (2014: 73%).
• Prior to June, Polanco had not shown much in the way of power. However, he posted a 112 xPX that month and has followed it with a 110 xPX in July and 140 xPX so far this month. This didn’t result in increased HR output in June or July due to poor hr/f luck (June: 0% hr/f; July: 4% hr/f). However, it’s a promising sign, especially when combined the 2H change in batted ball mix and slightly enhanced bb%.

Polanco has rebounded from a shaky, aside from SB, beginning to 2015. The 23-year-old still has work to do in order to reach his full potential, but the growth he has shown so far in the second half is certainly a step in the right direction. If Polanco can hold on to those 2H gains while improving his SB% and productivity vs. LHP, 2016 could be the year he takes that next step forward.

 

Davis providing power, little else … Power potential created a fair amount of hype around Khris Davis (OF, MIL) heading into the 2015 season. When healthy, he has delivered that aspect of his game, but it has come with a bad batting average. Is there any hope that Davis will become a more well-rounded player?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB   PX  xPX  hr/f  HR/SB
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ==  ========  ===  ===  ====  =====
2013  136  .279  .314    7   75   147  30  43/20/37  216  162   29%  11/ 3
2014  501  .244  .278    6   76   132  28  39/21/40  161  158   14%  22/ 4
2015  247  .239  .246   11   68   103  30  40/18/42  157  165   17%  12/ 2

The power is legit, but the BPIs raise serious concern about his BA:

• His xPX and PX is right in line with past performance. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, his average flyball and HR distance is 291 feet (same as 2014), which ranks 64th in MLB.
• A plunge in ct% and xBA is worrisome. However, it’s worth noting that he sported a 72% ct% in 148 first half AB. His 63% ct% in the 2H raises a red flag, but it’s also in a relatively small sample size (99 AB). Can he get back to his 2014 ct% or, better yet, his 2014 2H ct% (78%)?
• Davis has roughly average speed, but is capable of contributing a handful of SB per year. He doesn’t often try to steal, but he has been quite efficient when doing so (9 SB in 11 career attempts).

There is no denying the power that Davis possesses. The question is whether or not he can post a decent batting average. In order to do that, he’ll need to do a better job of making contact. Even if he can’t get all the way back to the 78% ct% he owned in the 2H of 2014, just recapturing his 2013-14 level would be a boon to his overall value. Interestingly, he has chased fewer pitches outside the zone this year than in the past (30% in 2013-14; 26% in 2015), so that’s at least a positive sign that maybe he can turn things around. Until he does, expect more of the same… 30 HR upside with a .240-ish BA.

 

Can Peavy right the ship? … Jake Peavy (RHP, SF) made two starts in April before hitting the disabled list with a back strain that kept him out of action until July 3. Can the veteran improve upon his 4.18 ERA over the final weeks of the season?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  SwK  FpK  hr/f    G/L/F   H%/S%  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ====  ========  =====  ===
2011  112  4.92  3.68  1.9  7.7  4.0  10%  63%    8%  39/23/39  33/61  103
2012  219  3.37  3.82  2.0  8.0  4.0  10%  63%   10%  37/19/45  28/74  104
2013  145  4.17  4.00  2.2  7.5  3.4   9%  66%   10%  33/21/47  28/68   86
2014  203  3.73  4.12  2.8  7.0  2.5  10%  64%    9%  38/20/42  30/74   67
2015   56  4.18  4.34  2.6  6.6  2.6   8%  65%    8%  39/19/42  30/70   66

The underlying metrics give little reason for optimism:

• His FpK% suggests that his already slightly above average Ctl could receive a modest uptick.
• The strikeouts continue to dwindle. His Dom is now well below average and SwK% doesn’t hint at any enhancement on the horizon.
• His xERA continues to head down a negative track.

It’s clear that Peavy’s best days are behind him. As things stand now, this would be his third consecutive 4.00+ xERA, and it has risen in each of those years. Peavy’s 2014 2H (2.57 ERA, 3.80 xERA, 66% FpK% and 11% SwK% in 98 IP) gave a glimmer of hope that he might be able to put together a league average type campaign in 2015, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

 

Is Prado fading? … Martín Prado (2B/3B, MIA) has been a reliable performer for the past several years, but he has had a disappointing 2015. He has yet to sport an OPS above .696 in a given month this year. Is there reason for concern?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB  PX/xPX  hr/f  Spd/SBO  HR/SB
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ====  ==  ========  ======  ====  =======  =====
2011  551  .260  .263   91    87  27  51/15/35   77/71    8%  119/ 9%  13/ 4
2012  617  .301  .291   89   110  33  48/23/29   86/76    6%  125/11%  10/17
2013  609  .282  .290   91   111  29  48/22/30   85/89    8%   90/ 5%  14/ 3
2014  536  .282  .277   85   102  31  49/22/29   88/78    9%  123/ 3%  12/ 3
2015  360  .272  .257   86    95  31  47/24/29   55/65    4%   91/ 0%   4/ 0

Prado’s skills have declined a bit:

• After three straight years of elite ct%, Prado’s ct% slipped in 2014 and hasn’t recovered. That said, his 2015 ct% is still good.
• His previously mediocre power has diminished to well below average. His current xPX and PX would be career worsts. His hr/f seems out of place, but not terribly so, as his lifetime hr/f is 7% and his home stadium suppresses HR (-22% RHB HR). It’s also worth noting that his average FB and HR distance has been in a downturn (2013: 279 feet; 2014: 271 feet; 2015: 265 feet).
• He posted a BPV in the 73-83 range from 2008-13, but it has plummetted in 2014-15.
• His struggles vs. RHP have continued. He owns a career .735 OPS in 2,870 AB vs. RHP, but he mustered a .668 OPS vs. RHP in 424 AB a year ago and owns pitiful .641 OPS vs. RHP in 279 AB this year. If he can’t turn this around, it’s possible that it could eventually cost him playing time.

Prado was out of action from mid-June to mid-July due to a right shoulder sprain. Prior to the injury, he had a .272 xBA, 4 HR, 87 ct%, 101 HctX, 76 xPX and 37 BPV in 254 AB. He has a .206 xBA, 0 HR, 83% ct%, 80 HctX, 37 xPX and 2 BPV in 106 AB since. It’s certainly possible that the shoulder is still bothering him. If that’s the case, it’s doubtful that he’ll get markedly better over the final several weeks of 2015. At any rate, the underlying metrics are a bit worrisome.

 

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