(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Hamels, J. Upton, S. Miller, B. Crawford, Burnett

Hamels still going strong … Cole Hamels (LHP, PHI) put a scare into folks last spring as he battled some shoulder soreness, but he returned in late April and went on to post his fifth consecutive 200+ IP season. Are there any reasons to doubt Hamels in 2015?

Year    IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  SwK  FpK  hr/f    G/L/F   H%/S%  BPV  DOM%/DIS%
=====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ====  ========  =====  ===  =========
2010   209  3.06  3.29  2.6  9.1  3.5  13%  59%   12%  45/17/38  30/80  116    61%/12%
2011   216  2.79  3.02  1.8  8.1  4.4  12%  62%   10%  52/15/33  27/75  126    77%/10%
2012   215  3.05  3.32  2.2  9.0  4.2  14%  63%   12%  43/22/35  30/78  125    77%/ 0%
2013   221  3.59  3.45  2.0  8.2  4.0  13%  63%    9%  42/21/36  30/71  113    76%/ 3%
2014   205  2.46  3.20  2.6  8.7  3.4  13%  61%    8%  46/22/31  30/81  111    83%/ 3%

The 31-year-old’s skills are showing no signs of decline.

• Hamels walked more batters (2.6 Ctl) in 2014, but it’s safe to assume that’s largely due to shoulder soreness that forced him to begin the season on the disabled list. FpK% (63%) and Ctl (2.3) returned to his normal marks in 2H.
• Though his Dom remained above average, a dazzling 13% SwK% shows that there could be even more strikeouts coming.
• He was aided by a fortunate 81% S%, as evidenced by xERA. However, even in today’s climate, there is absolutely nothing wrong with a 3.20 xERA.
• He has been amazingly consistent throughout his career, never posting a BPV below 100 or an xERA above 3.76.
• DOM/DIS% over the past three years has been outstanding.

Hamels has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game over the past several years. The only real negative that can be said about him is that he has failed to win 10 games in either of the past two seasons. Of course, the Phillies offense has ranked 27th and 23^rd in scoring in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Barring a trade, Hamels figures to have poor run support again in 2015, but don’t let that prevent you from rostering him. He is clearly one of the best starting pitchers in the game today.

 

The move to PETCO shouldn’t have much impact on Upton … Justin Upton (OF, SD) was just a homer away from the 30-HR plateau in 2014. A trade to the Padres means he’ll now play half of his games in a pitcher's haven. Should fantasy owners be concerned about Upton’s value taking a hit?

Year    AB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX   h%    G/L/F    PX  xPX  hr/f  Spd  SBO  HR/SB 
====   ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ========  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  =====
2011   592  .289  .280   9%   79   130   32  37/18/45  160  142   15%  124  19%  31/21
2012   554  .280  .250  10%   78   105   33  44/21/36   96  107   11%  127  15%  17/18
2013   558  .263  .254  12%   71    88   32  41/22/38  145  110   18%  109   5%  27/ 8
2014   566  .270  .262  10%   70   116   34  40/20/40  173  159   18%   95   8%  29/ 8

Upton’s power came with full skill support, but there is some reason for concern in other areas.

• His xPX took a huge leap from the previous two seasons and was his best since 2011. It’s no surprise when you consider that, according to BaseballHeatMaps.com, his batted ball distance (299.82 which was 14th in MLB) jumped about 14 feet from the previous two seasons and was his highest since 2011 (300.19, also 14th in MLB).
• Once a threat to swipe 20 bases in a given season, Upton’s speed isn’t quite what it once was. In fact, it was just a tick below average in 2014. However, if given the opportunity, he could potentially reach double-digit steals again.
• The decline in ct% since 2012 puts his batting average at risk. His xBA hints at the downside. Upton swung at a career high 31.1% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2014 in route to 171 strikeouts (career high). An adjustment there could help and go a long way toward alleviating that concern.

The move to PETCO Park figures to have only a minimal influence on Upton’s homer output. The bigger question is whether or not he can reduce the number of strikeouts and avoid seeing his batting average migrate closer to .250. If others in your league are afraid of PETCO, there could be some room for profit.

 

Late-season changes give Miller a boost … A strong start to his major league career served to raise expectations for Shelby Miller (RHP, ATL) as the 2014 season approached. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to live up to the rather immense hype. What should we expect from the 24-year-old in 2015?

Year    IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  SwK  FpK  hr/f    G/L/F   H%/S%  BPV  DOM%/DIS%
=====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ====  ========  =====  ===  =========
2012*  150  4.58  4.54  3.1  9.1  3.0  13%  57%    0%  42/15/42  33/70   81   100%/ 0%
2013   173  3.06  3.73  3.0  8.8  3.0  10%  62%   10%  38/20/41  29/79   94    55%/13%
2014   183  3.74  4.44  3.6  6.2  1.7   7%  60%   10%  40/19/41  26/74   33    42%/13%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14 1H   99  4.10  4.67  4.5  6.4  1.4   7%  59%   11%  41/21/38  28/74   13    35%/18%
14 2H   84  3.31  4.20  2.6  6.1  2.4   8%  62%    9%  39/17/44  24/74   57    50%/ 7%
* Includes MLE

There are some negatives in his BPIs, but if you look closely, there is reason to be optimistic.

• Overall, Miller’s Ctl was worse than 2013, but 2H gains, which were supported by FpK%, give reason for hope.
• The dip in SwK% is a bit worrisome. However, he rallied with a strong September (7.7 Dom, 1.5 Ctl, 3.37 xERA, 66% FpK%, 9% SwK%, and 114 BPV in 30 IP). Miller, incidentally, began using a new grip on his sinker on August 23. Prior to that day, he had only thrown the sinker a grand total of 14 times during the 2014 season. From then on, 13% of the pitches he threw were sinkers and his overall performance improved (2.08 ERA, 6.7 Dom, and 1.9 Ctl in 43 IP).
• Miller showed improvement against left-handed batters (2013: .761 oOPS vs. LHB; 2014: .707 oOPS vs. LHB). Perhaps most encouraging is that he held lefties to a miniscule .179/.256/.205 slash line with 0 HR while posting a 30% K% against them during the month of September. Obviously, that’s a small sample size, but it’s interesting given the adaptations he made in late August.

In addition to the tweak Miller made on August 23 with regard to his sinker, he also started throwing his four-seam fastball less and began utilizing his curve ball more (four-seam fastball usage down 15%, curve up 10% and sinker up 13%). Those changes seemed to pay pretty significant dividends down the stretch. He had previously relied on what was essentially a two-pitch arsenal when you consider he threw his fastball 71% of the time and his curve around 18% of the time. Now armed with a sinker to go with a 94 mph four-seam fastball, curve and cutter, Miller may be ready to take the next step. Pay for something similar to 2014, but there is reason to believe he could provide an ERA closer to 3.50.

 

Crawford shows some promise … Brandon Crawford (SS, SF) produced his first $10 season in 2014 as he posted career bests in HR, RBI, SB, and OPS. Is this as good as it is going to get for Crawford in terms of fantasy value or might there be additional upside?

Year    AB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX   h%    G/L/F    PX  xPX  hr/f  Spd  SBO  HR/SB 
====   ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ========  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  =====
2011*  303  .197  .224   9%   82    75   23  51/14/35   55   79    5%  109  13%   4/ 4
2012   435  .248  .246   7%   78    98   31  47/23/30   77   85    4%   88   5%   4/ 1
2013   499  .248  .246   8%   81    83   29  49/19/32   80   78    7%  105   2%   9/ 1
2014   491  .246  .229  11%   74    91   32  38/20/42  103  126    6%  127   6%  10/ 5
*Includes MLE

A closer look at his BPIs suggests some hidden potential.

• His batted ball profile changed pretty drastically, shifting from GB heavy to a FB hitter.
• He hit the ball with much more authority, as shown in xPX. That blends well with his new penchant for hitting flyballs. An unlucky 6% hr/f helped mask those gains.
• Though Crawford struck out more, he also walked more. Can he maintain that bb% while improving his ct% to previous levels?
• Crawford has very good speed (127 Spd), but rarely gets the green light (6% SBO%). A move up in the batting order could lead to more opportunities to run. He has spent most of his career batting either seventh or eighth.

Though it was only one month, Crawford was able to combine most of his new approach with his old ct% last September (82% ct%, 134 xPX, 42% FB%, .279 xBA, 2 HR, 16 RBI in 74 AB). Owners in need of a cheap shortstop could do a lot worse than Crawford. The 28-year-old is a good bet to duplicate last year’s numbers and if things break right, he could do even better...possibly a 15 HR/5-10 SB season.

 

Can Burnett rebound? … One wonders how much of A.J. Burnett’s (RHP, PIT) 2014 struggles stemmed from the fact that he pitched from mid-April on with a hernia. His 2014 performance bore a pretty striking resemblance to his 2011 season. Now presumably healthy and moving from a hitter’s park in Philadelphia to a pitcher’s park in Pittsburgh, can Burnett get things turned around?

Year    IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  SwK  FpK  hr/f    G/L/F   H%/S%  BPV  DOM%/DIS%
=====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ====  ========  =====  ===  =========
2011   190  5.15  3.84  3.9  8.2  2.1  10%  57%   17%  49/18/32  30/68   68    47%/16%
2012   202  3.51  3.38  2.8  8.0  2.9  10%  61%   13%  57/19/24  30/74  105    55%/ 6%
2013   191  3.30  2.92  3.2  9.8  3.1  11%  62%    9%  57/19/24  32/73  127    70%/10%
2014   214  4.59  3.81  4.0  8.0  2.0   9%  56%   11%  51/21/29  31/68   64    59%/ 9%

Burnett’s skills took quite a dive last year:

• FpK% and Ctl worsened considerably. In order to have success, that’s something he’ll have to correct in 2015.
• Can he regain the SwK% and Dom he flashed in 2013? His 2014 Dom and SwK% were merely slightly above average. It’s also worth pointing out that his velocity fell 1 mph from the previous year. 
• The drop in GB% and an unlucky S% didn’t help matters. After posting a strong xERA in both 2012 and 2013, it plummeted to just below average in 2014.

It’s tough to know exactly how much the hernia impacted Burnett’s performance in 2014, but it’s fair to assume it played some role in his struggles. The change of address figures to help him as he thrived pitching at PNC Park in 2012 and 2013 (3.10 ERA in 2012; 2.37 ERA in 2013). However, it’s reasonable to question whether or not the 38-year-old can regain his prior form. Don’t expect a return to 2012-13, but he should bounce back a bit.

 

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