Bumgarner's skills slipping? ... Madison Bumgarner (LHP, SF) has missed significant time for the second straight year, this time because of a broken hand sustained when he was hit by a line drive during spring training. His 3.19 ERA in nine starts is still strong, but what do the skills have to say about his performance to date?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK Vel G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === ==== === === === ==== ======== == == ==== === 2014 217 2.98 3.08 1.8 9.1 5.1 66% 12% 92.1 44/20/36 31 76 10% 137 2015 218 2.93 3.10 1.6 9.6 6.0 64% 13% 92.1 42/23/36 30 75 10% 150 2016 227 2.74 3.48 2.1 10.0 4.6 65% 12% 90.9 40/19/41 28 79 11% 140 2017 111 3.32 3.99 1.6 8.2 5.1 67% 11% 91.0 41/18/41 28 77 13% 123 2018 54 3.19 4.53 3.9 7.7 2.0 62% 9% 91.0 43/21/36 27 77 9% 56
Bumgarner isn't looking like an ace right now:
Though Bumgarner owns a solid ERA nine starts into his 2018 campaign, he simply hasn't been the same dominant pitcher he's been throughout his career. He's not generating many swings and misses, and is walking far batters than usual. Bumgarner deserves some credit for limiting the amount of hard contact against him, but he's no doubt benefited from some good luck as well. It doesn't appear that he'll be an upper tier starter for the remainder of the season, so if other owners are valuing him as such, now may be a good time to sell.
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Anderson exceeding expectations ... Tyler Anderson (LHP, COL) was described as having sub-4.00 ERA upside in the Baseball Forecaster, and he has delivered on that promise so far in 2018, posting a 3.57 ERA through 21 starts. Do his skills support this level of success?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2016* 141 3.48 4.08 2.4 7.4 3.1 64% 11% 51/20/29 32 76 12% 84 2017 86 4.81 4.07 2.7 8.5 3.1 65% 12% 44/23/33 31 69 20% 101 2018 121 3.57 4.12 3.0 8.3 2.7 63% 12% 39/22/39 27 75 13% 85 *Includes MLEs
Not quite—he's been a little lucky:
Anderson continues to display some pretty intriguing skills, and his home park doesn't seem to phase him, as he owns a 3.65 ERA at home this season, and 3.48 in 31 career appearances (30 starts). The one area of concern is dip in his ground ball rate, which will likely bite him eventually, if he doesn't get back to keeping the ball on the ground. Anderson's ability to generate whiffs and avoid disaster should help him continue to be a solid option in deeper formats, but expectations should probably be set in line with his consistent xERA history, rather than his current ERA.
Contreras not hitting for as much power ... After hitting 21 home runs in 2017, and batting .309 in the second half, Willson Contreras (C, CHC) certainly looked like a rock solid option behind the plate heading into 2018. While he's been good, he hasn't quite lived up to his NFBC ADP of 51, batting .277 with eight home runs in 310 at-bats. Should owners expect another big second half?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX hr/f Spd ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== ======= ==== === 2016* 456 19/5 .290 .276 9 77 54/18/28 34 101 121/105 24% 109 2017 377 21/5 .276 .268 11 74 53/17/29 32 106 131/101 26% 77 2018 310 8/4 .277 .250 10 75 48/17/35 35 92 106/86 10% 125 *Includes MLEs
The power is lagging behind this year:
Contreras has been good this year, providing solid production across the board, but hasn't quite lived up to expectations. He's not hitting the ball as hard as he did last year, which has obviously had a negative impact on his power numbers. He's also showing that he may have a little more downside than expected in the batting average category, though, all things considered, his track record should give owners confidence that he'll continue to provide a solid average. Another monster second half may not be in the cards, but Contreras should still be considered one of the top catcher options in the league.
Rosario showing signs of life ... When we last checked in on Amed Rosario (SS, NYM) in early May, he had yet to steal a base, and was sporting a sub-.600 OPS. He has run hot and cold since then, but has really shown some life lately. Is Rosario becoming someone owners can count on to produce down the stretch, and in the future?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX Spd/SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== ====== ======= 2016* 214 2/5 .307 N/A 8 72 N/A 42 N/A 83/NA 114/11% 2017# 558 10/21 .267 .246 4 77 51/20/29 33 75 65/73 169/23% 2018 301 4/8 .249 .243 5 77 48/17/34 31 82 81/71 166/20% *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Rosario's wheels are well ahead of his bat at this point:
Rosario clearly has his flaws, as his plate approach is still a work in progress, and he would be better off cutting down on his fly ball rate to better take advantage of his speed. He's making minor gains with the bat, though, and looks like he could make a pretty significant impact on the bases for the stretch run. Rosario has been running often, and with a high success rate, over the past couple of months, and given the fact the Mets are likely to deal a couple veterans by next week, he may find himself at or near the top of the order for the foreseeable future, despite the ugly on-base-percentage. Double digit homers and a solid batting average may not come in a year or two, but owners in need of an immediate speed boost may want to deal for Rosario now.
Williams cuts down on strikeouts ... Nick Williams (OF, PHI) had a productive 2017 season with the Phillies, and has cemented himself as a starter with a solid, yet unspectacular 2018 campaign to date. How are his skills holding up?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA OPSvL bb% ct% FB% h% HctX PX/xPX hr/f Spd/SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== ===== === === === == ==== ======= ==== ======= 2015* 475 15/10 .270 N/A N/A 6 77 N/A 32 N/A 106/NA N/A 114/17% 2016* 497 13/6 .239 N/A N/A 3 69 N/A 32 N/A 113/NA N/A 106/11% 2017# 595 26/5 .270 .251 .738 5 66 27% 37 90 127/87 20% 131/9% 2018 256 12/2 .250 .258 .643 8 73 30% 30 89 107/87 21% 105/6% *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Williams owns decent skills across the board:
When looking at the skills of Williams, nothing really jumps out, but he provides decent power, and his significantly improved plate discipline is encouraging. There's not a huge short-term ceiling, as his speed isn't likely to translate into many stolen bases, he's not going to hit for a high average, and his ability to hit lefties is still an open question. Though not the most exciting option, the 24-year-old could provide some nice late-season power for owners.