(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Bumgarner, T. Anderson, Contreras, Rosario, N. Williams
Jul 27 2018
Bumgarner's skills slipping? ... Madison Bumgarner (LHP, SF) has missed significant time for the second straight year, this time because of a broken hand sustained when he was hit by a line drive during spring training. His 3.19 ERA in nine starts is still strong, but what do the skills have to say about his performance to date?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK Vel G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === ==== === === === ==== ======== == == ==== === 2014 217 2.98 3.08 1.8 9.1 5.1 66% 12% 92.1 44/20/36 31 76 10% 137 2015 218 2.93 3.10 1.6 9.6 6.0 64% 13% 92.1 42/23/36 30 75 10% 150 2016 227 2.74 3.48 2.1 10.0 4.6 65% 12% 90.9 40/19/41 28 79 11% 140 2017 111 3.32 3.99 1.6 8.2 5.1 67% 11% 91.0 41/18/41 28 77 13% 123 2018 54 3.19 4.53 3.9 7.7 2.0 62% 9% 91.0 43/21/36 27 77 9% 56
Bumgarner isn't looking like an ace right now:
- He isn't missing nearly as many bats as usual, as he's getting an awful four percent SwK on his four-seam fastball, and 14 percent on his curve, both down from his normal levels.
- He's surrendering an unusually high number of walks, while getting fewer first pitch strikes than usual, throwing less pitches in the zone than ever before (40 percent), and not getting batters to chase as much as he usually does (32 percent).
- He is allowing fewer fly balls than he has the past two seasons, and according to Statcast, is doing a good job of avoiding hard contact. But even pitching half his games in a home park that reduces RHB HR by 26 percent, he's likely to see a few more fly balls leave the park.
- The Giants are slightly below average this season in turning balls in play into outs, but have provided plenty of support behind Bumgarner. Odds are, his hit rate will go up as the season progresses.
Though Bumgarner owns a solid ERA nine starts into his 2018 campaign, he simply hasn't been the same dominant pitcher he's been throughout his career. He's not generating many swings and misses, and is walking far batters than usual. Bumgarner deserves some credit for limiting the amount of hard contact against him, but he's no doubt benefited from some good luck as well. It doesn't appear that he'll be an upper tier starter for the remainder of the season, so if other owners are valuing him as such, now may be a good time to sell.
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Anderson exceeding expectations ... Tyler Anderson (LHP, COL) was described as having sub-4.00 ERA upside in the Baseball Forecaster, and he has delivered on that promise so far in 2018, posting a 3.57 ERA through 21 starts. Do his skills support this level of success?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2016* 141 3.48 4.08 2.4 7.4 3.1 64% 11% 51/20/29 32 76 12% 84 2017 86 4.81 4.07 2.7 8.5 3.1 65% 12% 44/23/33 31 69 20% 101 2018 121 3.57 4.12 3.0 8.3 2.7 63% 12% 39/22/39 27 75 13% 85 *Includes MLEs
Not quite—he's been a little lucky:
- Anderson continues to induce a healthy amount of swinging strikes, and should remain a viable strikeout source.
- There has been minor slippage in both his FpK and Ctl, but nothing to be too concerned about, especially when considering he's recorded a 2.3 Ctl over his past nine starts.
- His ground ball rate is trending in the wrong direction, which could pose a problem with Coors Field as his home park. He has kept the ball on the ground at a 53 percent clip in four July starts, but unless he's able to sustain the gains, home runs could be more of an issue for him.
Anderson continues to display some pretty intriguing skills, and his home park doesn't seem to phase him, as he owns a 3.65 ERA at home this season, and 3.48 in 31 career appearances (30 starts). The one area of concern is dip in his ground ball rate, which will likely bite him eventually, if he doesn't get back to keeping the ball on the ground. Anderson's ability to generate whiffs and avoid disaster should help him continue to be a solid option in deeper formats, but expectations should probably be set in line with his consistent xERA history, rather than his current ERA.
Contreras not hitting for as much power ... After hitting 21 home runs in 2017, and batting .309 in the second half, Willson Contreras (C, CHC) certainly looked like a rock solid option behind the plate heading into 2018. While he's been good, he hasn't quite lived up to his NFBC ADP of 51, batting .277 with eight home runs in 310 at-bats. Should owners expect another big second half?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX hr/f Spd ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== ======= ==== === 2016* 456 19/5 .290 .276 9 77 54/18/28 34 101 121/105 24% 109 2017 377 21/5 .276 .268 11 74 53/17/29 32 106 131/101 26% 77 2018 310 8/4 .277 .250 10 75 48/17/35 35 92 106/86 10% 125 *Includes MLEs
The power is lagging behind this year:
- Contreras is hitting more fly balls, but isn't hitting the ball as hard, as he's fallen from 20th in exit velocity on fly balls and line drives a year ago to outside the top 150 this year. His home run per fly ball rate looked prime for regression prior to the season, but not quite to this extent.
- His contact rate is staying pretty consistent, but he has struggled with strikeouts lately, whiffing in 31 of his last 89 at-bats (103 plate appearances). He's been pretty lucky on balls in play, and only an elevated hit rate has prevented his batting average from dropping off.
- He's a very patient hitter, which has helped him to a .369 on-base-percentage in 2018, and .360 for his career. In OBP leagues, his value obviously gets an additional boost.
- He possesses more speed than most catchers, and has four steals in five attempts so far this season. However, he was successful on just 20 of 39 tries (51 percent) the previous four years, so expectations should be tempered.
Contreras has been good this year, providing solid production across the board, but hasn't quite lived up to expectations. He's not hitting the ball as hard as he did last year, which has obviously had a negative impact on his power numbers. He's also showing that he may have a little more downside than expected in the batting average category, though, all things considered, his track record should give owners confidence that he'll continue to provide a solid average. Another monster second half may not be in the cards, but Contreras should still be considered one of the top catcher options in the league.
Rosario showing signs of life ... When we last checked in on Amed Rosario (SS, NYM) in early May, he had yet to steal a base, and was sporting a sub-.600 OPS. He has run hot and cold since then, but has really shown some life lately. Is Rosario becoming someone owners can count on to produce down the stretch, and in the future?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX Spd/SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== ====== ======= 2016* 214 2/5 .307 N/A 8 72 N/A 42 N/A 83/NA 114/11% 2017# 558 10/21 .267 .246 4 77 51/20/29 33 75 65/73 169/23% 2018 301 4/8 .249 .243 5 77 48/17/34 31 82 81/71 166/20% *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Rosario's wheels are well ahead of his bat at this point:
- His fly ball rate is right around league average, but most of his power metrics are well below average. Statcast data shows he has bumped up his exit velocity by 3 MPH and Hard Hit % by seven percent from 2017, but he still can't be counted on for more than a couple homers the rest of the way.
- For a player lacking in power, he strikes out quit a bit, and hits the ball in the air too much. There's still time for him to improve in those areas, but for now, he's not going to help in the batting average category.
- He's not a patient hitter, and is getting on base at just a .293 clip, but he's made some minor gains in that part of his game. After drawing just three walks and swinging at the 4th highest percentage of balls out of the zone in 2017 (Min. 170 PA), he's bumped his walk rate up, and is now outside of the top 20 (at 40.5 percent) in the latter category.
- Rosario offers exciting speed, and while he's a mediocre 8 for 13 on steal attempts for the season, he's been caught only once in his last eight tries. He's been getting a green light lately, and has hit leadoff the past three games, setting himself up for the potential for quite a few steals the rest of the way.
Rosario clearly has his flaws, as his plate approach is still a work in progress, and he would be better off cutting down on his fly ball rate to better take advantage of his speed. He's making minor gains with the bat, though, and looks like he could make a pretty significant impact on the bases for the stretch run. Rosario has been running often, and with a high success rate, over the past couple of months, and given the fact the Mets are likely to deal a couple veterans by next week, he may find himself at or near the top of the order for the foreseeable future, despite the ugly on-base-percentage. Double digit homers and a solid batting average may not come in a year or two, but owners in need of an immediate speed boost may want to deal for Rosario now.
Williams cuts down on strikeouts ... Nick Williams (OF, PHI) had a productive 2017 season with the Phillies, and has cemented himself as a starter with a solid, yet unspectacular 2018 campaign to date. How are his skills holding up?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA OPSvL bb% ct% FB% h% HctX PX/xPX hr/f Spd/SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== ===== === === === == ==== ======= ==== ======= 2015* 475 15/10 .270 N/A N/A 6 77 N/A 32 N/A 106/NA N/A 114/17% 2016* 497 13/6 .239 N/A N/A 3 69 N/A 32 N/A 113/NA N/A 106/11% 2017# 595 26/5 .270 .251 .738 5 66 27% 37 90 127/87 20% 131/9% 2018 256 12/2 .250 .258 .643 8 73 30% 30 89 107/87 21% 105/6% *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Williams owns decent skills across the board:
- Last year's .288 batting average in 313 major league at-bats was aided by good fortune on balls in play. He has significantly cut down on the whiffs this season, but his hit rate has normalized, resulting in a batting average more in line with his skills.
- Williams chased 45 percent of pitches out of the zone in 2017, the 4th most among batters with 300 or more plate appearances. This year, he's down to 34 percent, and is walking at a much higher clip.
- He hasn't shown a lot of power, and doesn't hit the ball in the air a great deal, though the latter number is trending upward. Statcast shows he ranks 156th of 238 batters in exit velocity on FB/LD, so even playing half his games in a park that increases LHB HR by 20 percent, maintaining such a lofty home run per fly ball rate will be tough.
- Williams possesses plus speed, but has been successful on just three of seven steal attempts in the majors, and 41 of 74 (55 percent) overall since the start of the 2013 season. He shouldn't be counted on to see an increase in SBO or steals.
- The sample for both seasons is pretty small, but Williams hasn't yet proven he can hit lefties enough to solidify himself as an every day player going forward. He has 152 career plate appearances vs southpaws, and even with a 36 percent hit rate, owns a .263/.329/.372 line, with a 69 percent contact rate and 64 PX.
When looking at the skills of Williams, nothing really jumps out, but he provides decent power, and his significantly improved plate discipline is encouraging. There's not a huge short-term ceiling, as his speed isn't likely to translate into many stolen bases, he's not going to hit for a high average, and his ability to hit lefties is still an open question. Though not the most exciting option, the 24-year-old could provide some nice late-season power for owners.
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