(*) BATTERS: Plate and power surgers, 2015 1H-2H
Jan 21 2016
Let's take a look at the batters who showed the biggest gains in their plate control and power skills before and after the 2015 All-Star break.
First, these guys increased their walk rates the most in 2015 from the 1H to the 2H:
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Walk rate (BB%) 2015 - 2H vs. 1H* Name Position League BB% 1H BB% 2H Diff ====================== ======== ====== ====== ====== ==== Votto, Joey 1B NL 15% 27% +11% Swisher, Nick LF/DH NL 7% 18% +11% De Aza, Alejandro LF NL 6% 13% +7% Goins, Ryan 2B/SS AL 6% 12% +7% Morse, Michael 1B NL 6% 13% +7% Young, Chris LF AL 6% 13% +7% Correa, Carlos SS AL 5% 11% +6% Donaldson, Josh 3B AL 8% 14% +6% Freeman, Freddie 1B NL 9% 15% +6% Perez, Carlos C AL 3% 9% +6% Fowler, Dexter CF NL 10% 15% +6% Chisenhall, Lonnie RF/3B AL 4% 9% +6% Sizemore, Grady RF/DH AL 4% 9% +5% Choo, Shin-Soo RF AL 9% 14% +5% Gose, Anthony CF AL 6% 11% +5% Escobar, Eduardo SS/LF AL 4% 9% +5% Valencia, Danny 3B/LF AL 5% 10% +5% Beltran, Carlos RF AL 6% 11% +5% Desmond, Ian SS NL 5% 10% +5% Heyward, Jason RF NL 7% 12% +5% *min 100 PA each half
These hitters had the biggest increase in their contact rates from 2015 1H-2H:
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Contact rate (ct%) 2015 - 2H vs. 1H* Name Position League Ct% 1H Ct% 2H Diff ====================== ======== ====== ====== ====== ==== Saltalamacchia, Jarrod C AL 59% 71% +12% Springer, George RF AL 68% 80% +12% Marte, Starling CF NL 74% 85% +11% Reynolds, Mark 1B/3B NL 64% 75% +11% Yelich, Christian CF NL 74% 84% +9% Cuddyer, Michael LF FA 75% 83% +9% Zunino, Mike C AL 60% 68% +8% Cabrera, Asdrubal SS NL 76% 83% +7% Ramirez, Jose SS/2B AL 84% 91% +6% LaRoche, Adam 1B AL 67% 73% +6% Rupp, Cameron C NL 70% 77% +6% Gordon, Dee 2B NL 83% 89% +6% Encarnacion, Edwin DH/1B AL 79% 85% +6% Russell, Addison 2B NL 66% 72% +6% Gattis, Evan DH AL 77% 82% +6% Escobar, Eduardo SS/LF AL 76% 82% +6% Carter, Chris 1B NL 60% 65% +5% Pollock, A.J. CF NL 83% 88% +5% Holt, Brock 2B/3B/RF AL 76% 82% +5% Perez, Hernan 3B NL 74% 80% +5% Andrus, Elvin SS AL 84% 90% +5% Pillar, Kevin CF AL 83% 88% +5% Duffy, Matt 3B NL 80% 86% +5% Blanco, Gregor CF NL 80% 85% +5% Sizemore, Grady RF/DH AL 76% 81% +5% Beltran, Carlos RF AL 80% 85% +5% Lawrie, Brett 3B/2B AL 72% 77% +5% Kinsler, Ian 2B AL 85% 90% +5% Rasmus, Colby LF AL 62% 67% +5% Heyward, Jason RF NL 81% 86% +5% Souza, Steven RF AL 60% 65% +5% *min 100 PA each half
The following batters experienced the biggest jumps in their isolated power (ISO) in 2015 between the 1H and 2H:
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Isolated power (ISO) 2015 - 2H vs. 1H* Name Position League ISO 1H ISO 2H Diff ====================== ======== ====== ======= ======= ===== Zimmerman, Ryan 3B NL .137 .341 +.204 Ortiz, David DH AL .204 .376 +.172 Gonzalez, Carlos RF NL .194 .354 +.160 Duda, Lucas 1B NL .189 .341 +.152 Carpenter, Matt 3B NL .164 .312 +.148 Encarnacion, Edwin DH/1B AL .220 .363 +.143 Davis, Chris 1B/RF/DH AL .235 .376 +.141 Saltalamacchia, Jarrod C AL .133 .273 +.140 Moustakas, Mike 3B AL .130 .253 +.123 Kang, Jung-ho 3B/SS NL .116 .239 +.123 Carter, Chris 1B NL .195 .317 +.122 Werth, Jayson LF NL .079 .200 +.121 Ramirez, Jose SS/2B AL .059 .179 +.120 Sizemore, Grady RF/DH AL .072 .187 +.115 Lindor, Francisco SS AL .087 .199 +.112 Kemp, Matt RF NL .132 .242 +.110 Cespedes, Yoenis RF NL .202 .311 +.109 Odor, Rougned 2B AL .141 .246 +.105 Rupp, Cameron C NL .083 .188 +.105 Ozuna, Marcell CF NL .088 .191 +.103 Pennington, Cliff SS/2B AL .019 .121 +.102 Rosario, Eddie LF AL .134 .236 +.102 Brantley, Michael RF AL .128 .228 +.100 *min 100 PA each half
And these hitters saw the greatest increase in their flyball rates in 2015 from the 1H to the 2H:
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Flyball rate (FB%) 2015 - 2H vs. 1H* Name Position League FB% 1H FB% 2H Diff ====================== ======== ====== ====== ====== ==== Davis, Rajai CF AL 26% 43% +17% Alonso, Yonder 1B NL 22% 37% +16% Duda, Lucas 1B NL 45% 60% +15% Iannetta, Chris C AL 43% 57% +15% Moustakas, Mike 3B AL 35% 49% +14% Urshela, Giovanny 3B AL 26% 39% +13% Robinson, Clint 1B/LF NL 28% 41% +13% Guyer, Brandon LF AL 29% 42% +13% Flaherty, Ryan 2B AL 31% 44% +13% Uribe, Juan 3B NL 32% 44% +13% Pearce, Steve LF/1B FA 41% 54% +13% Suzuki, Ichiro RF NL 17% 29% +12% Tucker, Preston LF AL 31% 43% +12% Asche, Cody LF/3B NL 34% 46% +12% Aoki, Nori LF NL 17% 29% +12% Belt, Brandon 1B NL 33% 45% +12% Ahmed, Nick SS NL 33% 44% +11% Pagan, Angel CF NL 30% 41% +11% Rollins, Jimmy SS NL 38% 49% +11% Kemp, Matt RF NL 31% 42% +11% Ortiz, David DH AL 36% 47% +11% Rosario, Eddie LF AL 35% 45% +11% Gonzalez, Carlos RF NL 32% 42% +10% Lindor, Francisco SS AL 21% 31% +10% Zimmerman, Ryan 3B NL 31% 42% +10% Puig, Yasiel RF NL 34% 45% +10% Teixeira, Mark 1B AL 40% 50% +10% Iglesias, Jose SS AL 20% 29% +10% *min 100 PA each half
Here are several guys in each league whose improved plate and power skills after the 2015 All-Star break bode well for them in 2016.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Eduardo Escobar (SS/LF, MIN) will be viewed as an end-game utility guy in many 2016 drafts. But there's plenty of profit here if you can get him under $5. His stats (.810 OPS) and skills (9% BB%, 81% CT%, 86 BPV) both spiked in the second half. And you'll be able to plug him in at both SS and OF to start the season.
Anthony Gose (CF, DET) continues to be a player with 50-SB upside. Consistency is the next step. He had a 6% BB% and 74% CT% in the first half of 2015. Both his walks and strikeouts soared in the second half: 11% BB%, 67% CT%. Pairing a solid BB% and CT% at the same time will help him take advantage of his elite 160 Spd.
Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) is on the verge of a breakout at age 22. After starting slow in 2015 during his MLB debut with CLE (.203 BA, .497 OPS, -17 BPV in 74 AB), he looked like an All-Star in the second half: 11-45-.339 with 11 SB in 316 AB. And that production was backed by a sterling 88 BPV. He's already on the verge of becoming a cornerstone SS.
Mike Moustakas (3B, KC) looked like a top-tier 3B after the 2015 All-Star break: 15 HR, 51 RBI, .863 OPS in 249 AB. His ISO soared from .130 to .253, and his FB% jumped from 35% to 49%, so we can't dismiss his power gains. Now's the season to bet on a 30-HR breakout.
José Ramírez (SS/2B, CLE) is another utility type with more profit potential than it may seem, especially considering that Lindor will get all the attention in the CLE infield. His horrible production over 150 AB in the first half with CLE explains the likely lack of interest: .180 BA, .487 OPS, 23 BPV. But those marks overshadow the significant gains he made in the second half: .255 BA, .762 OPS, 101 BPV. His plate control soared to elite levels: 10% BB%, 91% CT%, 1.27 Eye. With a 127 Spd in the 2H and the raw ability to get on base, Ramirez has the seeds of a 30-SB source.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C, DET) will enter 2016 in a backup catcher role for DET behind promising young backstop James McCann (C, DET). While McCann will get the focus in fantasy drafts, don't overlook Saltalamacchia. His power surged in the second half: .869 OPS, 225 xPX, 52% FB% in 115 AB. Playing in ARI's hitter-friendly park certainly helped, but as a former first-round pick with proven elite power skills who is at an age when many bats of catchers emerge, he's another guy with some latent profit potential that many owners will ignore.
Danny Valencia (3B/LF, OAK) will go undrafted in some 2016 drafts. After all, he's a veteran who has never reached 20 HR or 80 RBI during a season. But he's a hitter who is aging well, posting the best skills of his career in two of the last three years. And he drew more walks in 2015 (8% BB%) than he has at any point during his career. He also hit RH with authority after feasting on lefties for years. As a guy who qualifies at both the IF and OF, there's some nice value here in deep leagues.
Mike Zunino (C, SEA) endured a miserable 2015 season due to chronic holes in his swing (62% CT%). That said, there were seeds in his second half with SEA that suggest we shouldn't write him off yet: 68% CT%, 150 xPX. And his plate control wasn't a lost cause during his rookie season with SEA in 2013 (8% BB%, 72% CT%). At age 25, it's way too soon to write off Zunino.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Brandon Belt (1B, SF) entered the 2015 season with the hope of a 30-HR breakout. While he posted a career-high in HR (18), many owners wanted more. If he can stay healthy, they may get it in 2016. His expected power index surged to an elite 156 xPX in 2015. In addition, his FB% went from 33% before the All-Star break to 43% after it. He also hit more line drives and generated more hard contact than at any point in his career. He hasn't peaked yet.
Dexter Fowler (CF, FA) has developed into a low-risk $15 OF. In fact, he has produced between $14 and $20 in each of the last four seasons. While he isn't likely to become a cornerstone OF, his second half surge from 2015 does give hope that his first 20 HR, 20 SB season could be around the corner. Both his stats (.272 BA, 9 HR, 9 SB in 294) and skills (15% BB%, 0.67 Eye, 119 xPX, 166 Spd, 74 BPV) after the ASB suggest he hasn't peaked yet.
Starling Marte (LF, PIT) has struggled to put together consistent plate control skills over the last two seasons. In 2015, he made contact at a marginal rate in the first half (74% CT%) before making steady contact in the second half (84% CT%). In aggregate, his yearly contact rate trend suggests he hasn't reached his ceiling yet: 70%, 73%, 74%, 79% CT%. There's $40 upside here.
Cameron Rupp (C, PHI) quietly developed into an intriguing second catcher due to his strong second half with PHI in 2015: 8 HR, 22 RBI in 159 AB. Both his plate control and power skills surged after the All-Star break too. He makes for a good second-catcher stash in very deep leagues.
Christian Yelich (LF, MIA) hasn't blossomed into an upper-tier SB threat yet, but it might be coming. He has made better contact in each of the last two seasons: 73%, 76%, 79% CT%. It's a mark that soared in the second half of 2015 (84% CT%). His speed skills have been very strong over those three years (132, 133, 119 Spd). At age 24, Yelich remains firmly on a growth curve.
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