(*) BATTERS: LIMA targets 2015
Feb 24 2015
The Low Investment Mound Aces (LIMA) Plan is a way for you to target consistent, affordable hitters who offer both solid plate discipline and power/speed upside.
Our latest iteration of the LIMA model suggests that we should target hitters who are projected to meet many of the following thresholds:
- ct% + bb% of 90% or greater
- PX or Spd level of 100 or greater
- Regular playing time
- Projected R$ between $10 and $30
LIMA values can vary based on your league context. We encourage you to use our Custom Draft Guides to see customized LIMA values for your league.
Here are the top 2015 projected LIMA hitting targets in a 5x5 mixed league...
-----------Projected 2015----------
Name League Position ADP BB% CT% Eye PX Spd BPV LIMA
=================== ====== ======== === === === ==== === === === ====
Soler, Jorge NL RF 126 9% 76% 0.42 154 109 80 A+
Bautista, Jose AL RF 11 15% 82% 0.98 149 84 104 A
Encarnacion, Edwin AL 1B/DH 12 12% 85% 0.88 150 68 104 A
Rizzo, Anthony NL 1B 16 11% 78% 0.53 150 68 74 A
Rendon, Anthony NL 3B/2B 13 9% 82% 0.56 116 108 35 A
Puig, Yasiel NL CF 31 10% 77% 0.47 134 131 76 A
Dickerson, Corey NL LF 47 7% 79% 0.34 151 129 91 A
Reyes, Jose AL SS 51 7% 89% 0.65 78 126 71 A
Pujols, Albert AL 1B/DH 53 8% 88% 0.74 117 65 83 A
Cespedes, Yoenis AL LF/DH 65 6% 79% 0.33 125 130 71 A
Dozier, Brian AL 2B 67 10% 79% 0.53 123 110 70 A
Zimmerman, Ryan NL 3B 119 9% 82% 0.57 128 94 79 A
Ortiz, David AL DH 95 12% 81% 0.73 150 62 89 A
Harrison, Josh NL OF/3B 93 4% 85% 0.29 110 118 74 A
Arenado, Nolan NL 3B 57 5% 86% 0.39 121 95 83 A
Gardner, Brett AL LF 152 10% 77% 0.47 100 141 52 A
Murphy, Daniel NL 2B 158 5% 86% 0.39 83 92 49 A
Lucroy, Jonathan NL C 67 9% 86% 0.69 108 96 80 A
Pedroia, Dustin AL 2B 100 9% 87% 0.76 78 106 64 A
Harper, Bryce NL CF 32 10% 75% 0.45 124 113 55 A
Aybar, Erick AL SS 203 5% 89% 0.47 64 104 50 A
Machado, Manny AL 3B 149 5% 80% 0.28 115 118 61 A
Santana, Carlos AL 1B/3B/DH 76 16% 78% 0.89 127 72 71 A
Walker, Neil NL 2B 130 9% 82% 0.52 114 86 63 A
Davis, Khris NL LF 204 8% 75% 0.32 158 83 66 A
Molina, Yadier NL C 130 6% 88% 0.56 83 64 51 A
Utley, Chase NL 2B 221 9% 85% 0.69 90 102 64 A
Crisp, Coco AL CF 265 11% 86% 0.89 82 111 67 A
Jennings, Desmond AL CF 238 9% 78% 0.42 102 135 52 A
Prado, Martin NL 3B/2B 204 6% 87% 0.48 85 121 67 A
Rollins, Jimmy NL SS 163 9% 83% 0.59 87 104 53 A
Infante, Omar AL 2B 335 5% 88% 0.44 73 114 57 A
Hill, Aaron NL 2B 292 7% 84% 0.44 96 90 54 A
Granderson, Curtis AL RF 252 11% 72% 0.46 124 107 45 A
Lowrie, Jed AL 3B 313 9% 83% 0.55 102 101 63 A
Simmons, Andrelton NL SS 286 6% 89% 0.63 68 122 63 ALet's take a closer look at a bunch of intriguing LIMA targets with current ADPs of 100+, some of whom just missed being included in the above data table.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Brett Gardner (LF, NYY) seemingly morphed into a power threat in 2014, nearly posting a 20/20 season after never reaching double-digits in HR in any prior season. It wasn't a product of Yankee Stadium either. He had more HR on the road (9) than at home (8). The key was nearly doubling his HR/F from 6% to 11%. But it's a mark we can't expect him to sustain, given that his batted ball distances in 2013 and 2014 were nearly identical. However, what he gives back in HR should be offset by a return to 30+ SB; he was on pace for that level of steals before an abdominal issue limited his chances in the second half.
Desmond Jennings (CF, TAM) makes for an excellent LIMA target due to his solid plate control and nice mix of power and speed. Like Gardner, he's someone you want to target more for speed than power. Jennings was on pace for a 25-SB season before a knee issue plagued him late in the year. With a GB% on a two-year increase and about to go over 50%, 30 SB is more likely than 10 HR.
Brandon Moss (1B/LF, CLE) has a lot of things going for him headed into the 2015 season. One, he'll qualify at both 1B and OF in most leagues. Two, his bb% has risen during the past two seasons, growth that could help him smooth out the streakiness that has plagued him in the past. If he has a quick recovery from hip surgery, this is a better source of power than you might realize.
Mike Moustakas (3B, KC) is a premium breakout candidate after some of his post-season heroics. Truth be told, he's a legit breakout candidate because he established career-best marks in bb%, HctX, and xPX in '14. A tiny 22% h% kept some of those gains hidden. This is a good place to speculate on an age-26 breakout.
Marcus Semien (3B/2B, OAK) enters 2015 with some intriguing upside. He flashed a 110 PX and 143 Spd with CHW in 2014, his contact rate soared from 65% in the first half to 80% in the second half, and he made those gains while markedly increasing his power skills. He wasn't able to use his speed skills due to a tiny 5% SBO%. He'll qualify at both 3B and 2B in most leagues and has a pretty clear path to playing time in the OAK infield. Invest.
Dayan Viciedo (RF, FA) is looking for a home after being designated for assignment by CHW in the off-season. While his '14 stats weren't great (.231-21-58), his flyball rate has increased over three straight seasons and his 119 xPX was the second-highest of his career. Furthermore, he's still just 26 years old and has some of the best raw power skills in the game. There's a lot of profit potential here now since you'll probably be able to get him for close to nothing.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Norichika Aoki (RF, SF) will be viewed as a fourth of fifth OF in some leagues when owners notice his yearly SB trend: 30, 20, 17. Don't follow suit. A groin issue led to the '14 portion of that dip. With a 130+ Spd in three consecutive seasons, excellent plate control, and a rock-solid .350 OBP, it's pretty safe to use a .290 BA and 25 SB as your baseline.
Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) has the ingredients of an intriguing LIMA target given his excellent pitch recognition and historically above-average power and speed skills. His dip in value from '13 to '14 was due to a decline in h% from 36% to 32%, as well as a steep drop in power. However, he was able to sustain a high level of hard contact, so we can't rule out a return to double-digit HR. There's some hidden BA and HR profit here.
Khris Davis (LF, MIL) wore down late in '14 after a 14-HR first half. Digging deeper, he actually was at his best in August: 10% bb%, 84% ct%, 0.73 Eye. In aggregate, his ct% increased from 74% in the 1H to 78% in the 2H, and he posted an elite 150+ xPX in four of six months. It's a skill set that could drive him towards a 30-HR season in 2015.
Juan Lagares (CF, NYM) quietly saw his contact rate increase from 74% to 82% between the 1H and 2H of '14, and a more friendly green light in the 2H helped him produce double-digit SB that half. If those contact gains stick, 20 SB will be within reach.
Daniel Murphy (2B, NYM) does not put up any stats that wow you, but middle infielders that are locks to post .280-BA, 10-HR and 10-SB seasons are worth a pretty penny in today's pitching-heavy landscape. He's a legit $20 investment and an excellent LIMA target.
David Peralta (RF, ARI) is another young bat with an intriguing collection of tools: above-average HctX, good contact ability, and very good wheels. If he can add some loft to his swing, he has the ability to post a 15-HR, 30-SB season. A $10 investment could net you $10 of profit.
Andrelton Simmons (SS, ATL) oozes physical tools, but nagging injuries drove the big power dip that he experienced in '14. When healthy, he still has a 20+ HR ceiling, and a 125+ Spd in three consecutive seasons gives hope that he can develop into a double-digit SB guy if given more of a green light.
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