(*) BATTERS: Bench targets 2016
Apr 4 2016
As is the case with starting pitchers, owners often overvalue Opening Day starting lineups. Guys who start the season on the bench often can be rostered at a nice discount. Especially those with hidden or emerging skills, since they are likely to carve out a full-time role once an opportunity arises.
Last season at this time, guys like Billy Burns (CF, OAK) and Randal Grichuk (LF, STL) started the season on their team's bench before making a splash early in the season.
Here are a bunch of bench bats whose value could increase as the season moves along.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Dustin Ackley (LF, NYY) will start the season on the NYY bench, and given the fact that he has never lived up to his top-prospect billing, many bidders will ignore him. Don't follow suit. He started to put things together late in 2015 (128 BPV in second half), including an elite 180 xPX and sneaky good 123 Spd. With Beltran, Ellsbury, Rodriguez, and Gardner all with injury histories of their own, Ackley will have an opportunity to show if those late 2015 gains were for real.
Oswaldo Arcia (LF, MIN) showed some top-flight power a couple of years ago. A hip issue derailed his 2015 season. At age 25, he's still young enough to blossom. Keep him on your radar.
Chris Coghlan (LF, OAK) posted career highs in speed (128 Spd), hard contact (114 HctX), and expected power (126 xPX) in 2015 during his age-30 season. And he did so without sacrificing plate discipline (12% bb%, 79% ct%, 0.62 Eye). He's a premium bench stash whose ability to play all over the IF and OF will help him carve out a regular role in the OAK lineup.
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Aaron Hicks (CF, NYY) is another reserve OF on the NYY roster who warrants attention. He finally started to show his multi-category upside in the second half of 2015 (9 HR, 7 SB). Behind those marks were solid plate control (10% bb%, 80% ct%, 0.55 Eye). His ability to play all three OF spots make him one of the best fourth OF targets in the game, and one that carries some sneaky breakout potential when an opportunity arises.
José Ramírez (2B/SS, CLE) has followed up a huge second half of 2015 (101 BPV) with a big spring training. And included in that skill surge in the second half were elite plate control (10% bb%, 91% ct%) and emerging speed skills (127 Spd). Playing behind Lindor and Kipnis blocks his obvious path to playing time, but his ability to play 3B and OF as well makes him a super-utility type with more upside than you might realize.
Justin Smoak (1B, TOR) is another post-hype bat who had a big spring. We've seen that before with him. That said, something did appear to click with him in September 2015 (.893 OPS, 89 BPV), and he posted an elite 150+ xPX in June, July, and August of that season. If Colabello falters, Smoak could carve out a full-time role in the TOR lineup.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Derek Dietrich (3B/LF, MIA) is another multi-skilled bench bat worth stashing on your reserve roster. He showed blossoming power in 2015 (134 PX, 111 HctX, 158 xPX) as well as potentially good legs (118 Spd). His ability to play both in the IF and OF will also provide multiple paths to playing time.
Wilmer Flores (SS/2B, NYM) is another post-hype young bat who could break out in 2016. While his spring results weren't overwhelming (.760 OPS), he did flash an impressive 8/8 BB/K in 56 AB, an early indication that he could get his walk rate to a level that could help him break out. And his 118 HctX and 111 xPX from the first half of 2015 gives a glimpse at his 20-HR power upside. An injury to Cabrera, Wright, or Walker would give Flores a crack at steady work.
Phil Gosselin (2B, ARI) had one of the biggest springs of any bat in the Cactus League (3 HR, 14 RBI, 1.105 OPS in 58 AB). And his plate control was excellent too: 7/8 BB/K in 58 AB. He also was one of the most skilled hitters in MLB during the 2H of 2015 (108 BPV), showing a solid foundation of plate control (10% bb%, 83% ct%, 0.64 Eye) and speed (118 Spd). He's yet another bat whose versatility to play both IF and OF spots give him multiple avenues to get playing time.
Mark Reynolds (1B/3B, COL) didn't get a lot of attention in most drafts (426 ADP), since he's a known commodity who hasn't produced double-digit value since 2011. That said, he was excellent this spring (1.020 OPS, 6/5 BB/K in 49 AB) and is only blocked by Ben Paulsen (1B, COL) as COL's everyday 1B.
Darin Ruf (1B/LF, PHI) showed signs of eradicating his RH demons this spring. He was fantastic against them, both in terms of production (1.115 OPS) and plate control (5/8 BB/K in 39 AB). With PHI in rebuild mold, Ruf should get an opportunity early in the season to prove that those gains are for real, which would help him rediscover the top-tier power skills he showed earlier in his career.
Jorge Soler (RF, CHC) is a top prospect whose time in the CHC lineup will come soon. In spite of flashing some of his tools in 2015 with CHC, he remains a work-in-progress. He struggled quite a bit this spring (.145 BA, .527 OPS). He's an excellent bench stash; just don't rely on him to be a cornerstone of your OF this season.
Scott Van Slyke (1B/LF, LA) is another 1B/OF qualifier with some excellent power upside who could provide sneaky value in 2016. His 2015 season was sabotaged by injuries. He has looked both healthy and productive this spring (.933 OPS, 7/9 BB/K in 55 AB). And those numbers weren't the result of feasting on lefties again. He was really good against RHers in a small sample size (.889 OPS, 5/5 BB/K in 35 AB). An injury to Crawford or continuation of Pederson's poor second half would give Van Slyke a shot at regular work.
Michael Taylor (CF, WAS) carries one of the most enticing power/speed combos in MLB. Reference his production this spring: 5 HR, 16 RBI, 3 SB, 1.340 OPS in 53 AB. His problem has been strikeouts (67% ct% in 2015), and it's one that continued to plague him this spring (4/15 BB/K in 53 AB). He's likely the first option if someone gets injured or underperforms in the WAS OF.
Trayce Thompson (RF, LA) received more AB this spring than any other bat in LA camp, and it wasn't even close. Perhaps it was a test to see if his strong finish to 2015 was for real: .896 OPS, 91 BPV in 122 AB. The early returns weren't very good (.644 OPS, 2/16 BB/K in 75 AB this spring), but his power/speed tools still give him the upside to be a multi-category contributor.
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