(*) BATTERS: BA and power anomalies 2016
Jul 25 2016
In the hunt? BaseballHQ.com can help you snag the title. Unlock all of our insights like these for the rest of the season: Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com.
Our expected batting average (xBA) and expected power (xPX) indicators can serve as useful mid-season barometers for the BA and power produced by bats so far in 2016. Extreme outliers from these expected levels can represent good buy-low or sell-high targets at this point in the season.
These batters have the widest BA-xBA variances so far in 2016:
-
Batting Average Outliers, 2016 YTD* Name League Position BA xBA Diff ================== ====== ============= ==== ==== ===== Crawford, Carl FA LF .185 .275 +.090 Adames, Cristhian NL SS .192 .269 +.077 Mesoraco, Devin NL C .140 .214 +.074 Weeks, Jemile NL 2B .140 .210 +.070 Howard, Ryan NL 1B .159 .229 +.070 Tucker, Preston AL LF/DH .178 .247 +.069 Tejada, Ruben NL SS/3B .167 .234 +.067 Coghlan, Chris NL LF/2B/3B .155 .221 +.066 Moustakas, Mike AL 3B .240 .302 +.062 Schimpf, Ryan NL 2B .229 .283 +.054 Revere, Ben NL LF .216 .270 +.054 Lobaton, Jose NL C .194 .247 +.053 Chirinos, Robinson AL C .205 .258 +.053 Kiermaier, Kevin AL CF .215 .268 +.053 Goins, Ryan AL 2B/SS .176 .228 +.052 Gomes, Yan AL C .165 .217 +.052 Hanigan, Ryan AL C .183 .231 +.048 Asche, Cody NL LF/3B .226 .274 +.048 Peralta, Jhonny NL SS/3B .221 .266 +.045 Shuck, J.B. AL CF .234 .279 +.045 Pacheco, Jordan NL C .157 .201 +.044 Dickerson, Alex AL LF .227 .271 +.044 Torreyes, Ronald AL 3B .236 .279 +.043 Frazier, Todd AL 3B .212 .255 +.043 Thole, Josh AL C .151 .193 +.042 Bautista, Jose AL RF/DH .230 .272 +.042 Teixeira, Mark AL 1B .186 .228 +.042 Crisp, Coco AL LF/DH .233 .275 +.042 Vazquez, Christian AL C .226 .266 +.040 ------------------------------------------------------------ Name League Position BA xBA Diff ================== ====== ============= ==== ==== ===== Sands, Jerry AL RF/DH .236 .108 -.128 Leon, Sandy AL C .395 .314 -.081 Orlando, Paulo AL RF .323 .243 -.080 Fryer, Eric NL C .349 .271 -.078 Pena, Ramiro NL 2B/3B .320 .251 -.069 Realmuto, Jacob NL C .312 .253 -.059 Maybin, Cameron AL CF .327 .270 -.057 Bogaerts, Xander AL SS .329 .273 -.056 Stubbs, Drew AL CF .245 .190 -.055 Cuthbert, Cheslor AL 3B .302 .250 -.052 Kim, Hyun-Soo AL LF .329 .278 -.051 Descalso, Daniel NL SS .326 .275 -.051 Smolinski, Jacob AL LF .324 .274 -.050 Pennington, Cliff AL 2B/SS .276 .229 -.047 Swihart, Blake AL C/LF .258 .212 -.046 Martinez, Michael AL 2B/RF .273 .229 -.044 Escobar, Yunel AL 3B .318 .275 -.043 Herrmann, Chris NL C .290 .247 -.043 Prado, Martin NL 3B .317 .276 -.041 Altuve, Jose AL 2B .357 .317 -.040 Villar, Jonathan AL SS .295 .255 -.040 Gillespie, Cole NL CF .240 .200 -.040 *min 50 AB
The following hitters have shown an extreme variance between their power and expected power:
-
Power Outliers, 2016 YTD* Name League Position PX xPX Diff ================== ====== ============= === === ==== De Aza, Alejandro NL LF 66 154 +88 Herrmann, Chris NL C 129 199 +70 Weeks, Jemile NL 2B 37 104 +67 O'Brien, Peter NL LF 148 213 +65 Mathis, Jeff NL C 53 118 +65 Wright, David NL 3B 167 231 +64 Barnes, Brandon NL LF 77 141 +64 Kratz, Erik NL FA 48 111 +63 Robinson, Shane AL LF 36 99 +63 Campbell, Eric NL 3B/1B 46 107 +61 Ruf, Darin NL 1B/LF 36 97 +61 Ackley, Dustin AL LF/1B 0 59 +59 Gordon, Alex AL LF 97 156 +59 Nava, Daniel AL RF 49 108 +59 Howard, Ryan NL 1B 137 195 +58 Martinez, Victor AL DH 103 158 +55 Gillaspie, Conor NL 3B 75 128 +53 Gillespie, Cole NL CF 94 147 +53 Swihart, Blake AL C/LF 45 98 +53 Weeks, Rickie NL LF 133 185 +52 Walker, Neil NL 2B 94 145 +51 Joseph, Caleb AL C 18 68 +50 McCann, James AL C 68 117 +49 Van Slyke, Scott NL LF/1B 83 131 +48 Nimmo, Brandon NL LF 31 77 +46 Peraza, Jose NL 2B 0 46 +46 Blackmon, Charlie NL CF 96 141 +45 Thole, Josh AL C 29 73 +44 Presley, Alex AL RF 54 98 +44 Ahmed, Nick NL SS 51 95 +44 Martin, Russell AL C 78 122 +44 Ellis, A.J. NL C 45 88 +43 Infante, Omar NL 2B 61 103 +42 Gimenez, Chris AL C 44 84 +40 Hill, Aaron AL 3B/2B 74 114 +40 --------------------------------------------------------- Name League Position PX xPX Diff ================== ====== ============= === === ==== Butera, Drew AL C 172 98 -74 Pham, Tommy NL CF 202 136 -66 Leon, Sandy AL C 174 110 -64 Hazelbaker, Jeremy NL LF 153 90 -63 Williamson, Johnathan NL RF 157 95 -62 Eibner, Brett AL LF 158 98 -60 Reyes, Jose NL SS/3B 154 101 -53 Schoop, Jonathan AL 2B 131 80 -51 Buxton, Byron AL CF 119 71 -48 Rua, Ryan AL LF/1B 108 62 -46 Blanco, Andres NL 3B/2B/1B 105 59 -46 Lee, Dae-ho AL 1B 118 73 -45 Burns, Billy AL CF 41 -3 -44 Santana, Domingo NL RF 133 91 -42 Naquin, Tyler AL CF 197 157 -40 Rizzo, Anthony NL 1B 172 132 -40 *min 50 AB
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) is on his way to a $35 season thanks to a combination of batting average (.329 BA), power (11 HR), and speed (11 SB). But keep in mind that his .273 xBA suggests that he's not a .300 hitter quite yet, and his subpar 89 PX and even worse 72 xPX put a damper on his power ceiling, at least for now. His production level in July might be what to expect on a monthly basis over the last two months (.788 OPS, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB).
Alex Gordon (LF, KC) hasn't produced very good stats so far in 2016 (.203 BA, 7 HR, 16 RBI in 222 AB). The culprit has been poor contact (67% ct%). At first glance, his power skills wouldn't seem to offer hope of a power spike (97 PX). But his 156 xPX suggests otherwise, and it's a mark that is the highest of his career. In addition, after posting a 130+ PX against lefties in '13 and '14, it has nosedived to a 32 PX in '16, limiting him to a .509 OPS vs. LH. Closing down the holes in his swing and hitting the ball with more authority against lefties would help Gordon tap into the latent power upside he carries heading into the final two months, assuming he has full strength back in his hand after fracturing it earlier in the season.
Sandy León (C, BOS) has been one of the game's elite power sources over the last month (1.023 OPS in 55 AB). While his hot streak has been a huge boost to his owners, his 174 PX for the season hasn't been supported by his 110 xPX. And he has never posted even average power skills in his prior MLB stints. He's another candidate for a big dropoff.
Russell Martin (C, TOR) started the season as a huge drag, putting up a horrible .150 BA and .391 OPS in April. But his production climbed in both May and June, and he has posted a strong 120+ xPX in three of four months. If his knee problem doesn't linger, Martin could be in line for a big second half.
Cameron Maybin (CF, DET) has generated a .300+ BA since taking over as DET's regular CF for underperforming Anthony Gose. But it's a mark that has been generated by a 38% h%. Maybin's prior career-best hit rate was 33% in 2011. Continue to use him for his wheels, as the spikes in his walk and contact rates support his value on the basepaths. But his lack of hard contact (76 HctX) continues to profile him as a .270 hitter.
James McCann (C, DET) is a defensive specialist behind the plate who hasn't produced much on offense (.548 OPS), mostly due to some big holes in his swing (67% ct%). But he's another hitter who carries some latent power potential (117 xPX vs. 68 PX). And his low 26% h% is significantly lower than the 33% h% he posted in '15, so there's hope that his sub-.200 BA will rise too.
Paulo Orlando (RF, KC) carries a nifty .323 BA after 235 AB with KC, leading many of his owners to continue to ride him as their fourth or fifth OF. Problem is, that mark comes with no underlying support (.243 xBA), as his plate control leaves a lot to be desired (0.10 Eye) and he doesn't hit the ball with any authority (53 PX, 55 xPX). And his lack of walks (2% bb%) will help to dry up his SB opportunities, since his current .341 OBP has been entirely driven by an unsustainable 40% h%.
Preston Tucker (LF/DH, HOU) still hasn't stuck as an MLB regular yet, but there remains reasons to invest in him. His .247 xBA is significantly higher than his terrible .178 BA, suggesting that his 23% h% is the reason for his sub-.200 BA. And his high rate of hard contact (122 HctX) has helped to produce a very good 130 xPX. There remains seeds of something good here.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Charlie Blackmon (CF, COL) is on his way to another multi-category impact season (.300 BA, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 12 SB in 343 AB). And his power (96 PX) has even more upside than you might realize (141 xPX), as his rate of hard contact (120 HctX) is on a three-year upswing. In fact, check out his xPX trend from 2013 to 2016: 67, 94, 120, 140.
Tommy Pham (CF, STL) was one of the game's most productive and skilled bats in September 2015 (1.020 OPS, 100 BPV in 59 AB). While that magic didn't carry over to the start of 2016, his production has spiked since July 1: .891 OPS in 48 AB. And his power has been backed by an elite 175 xPX. He also carries a strong 93 BPV in the second half. He'll need to make much better contact (58% ct% since July 1) to sustain this flash, but if you play in a deep league, Pham has value if you view him as OF depth.
Ryan Schimpf (2B, SD) has been a revelation since getting steady AB recently. Few batters have been better than Schimpf in July: 1.293 OPS, 248 xPX, 211 BPV in 59 AB. He also has shown an ability to recognize balls from strikes (14% bb%), although he doesn't make contact regularly (66% ct%). Still, with an extreme flyball tilt and elite power skills, Schimpf has a lot of intrigue as a 2B or MI.
Scott Van Slyke (LF/1B, LA) began the season with a lot of promise, since he had a big spring and even appeared to make gains against righties. Then he went out early with another injury and has struggled to get steady playing time since. That said, his 185 xPX in the first half confirms that his raw power is still legit, and his eligibility at both OF and 1B gives you a couple of ways to use him in very deep leagues.
Neil Walker (2B, NYM) is on his way to a new career high in HR (16 HR in 318 AB), even though he has struggled so far in July (2 HR, 8 RBI, .512 OPS in 58 AB). It's a jump that has been supported by a 145 xPX, the best mark of his career. And he's a good candidate to experience a rise in his BA if his 26% h% starts to rise to its prior near-30% norm.
Rickie Weeks (LF, ARI) could be a sneaky add in very deep leagues in the second half. He carries an elite 185 xPX after 111 AB, as he's making far more hard contact (140 HctX) than at any point in his career. Just keep in mind that all of his production has come against lefties (1.028 OPS vs. LH), so he's not someone you want to make part of your everyday lineup. But he has value in deep leagues with daily transactions.
More From Batters
In our last installment this season, a look at the lineup spots for James Wood, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Junior Caminero.
Sep 6 2024 3:03am
Sep 6 2024 3:03am
Jackson Merrill's huge multi-category contributions in August came with strong underlying support.
Sep 2 2024 3:07am
Sep 2 2024 3:07am
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seemed destined for greatness from the time he was a teenager, but he has had an up-and-down journey in the Major Leagues. We dig into how he has bounced back in 2024.
Aug 27 2024 3:08am
Aug 27 2024 3:08am
The exciting early returns from James Wood would accelerate quickly if he could figure out a way to loft the ball against lefties.
Aug 26 2024 3:06am
Aug 26 2024 3:06am
This week we focus on three hitters who moved into new lineup spots in the second half, fueling improved production.
Aug 23 2024 3:03am
Aug 23 2024 3:03am
