SPECULATOR: Recency bias rebounds, 2020 hitters
Feb 26 2020
We focus on last year wayyy too much.
Sure, it's important to look at 2019 when evaluating 2020 outlooks—it's the most recent data point we have—but doing so in a vacuum can lead to a ton of blind spots. In times like these, we can't repeat these BaseballHQ axioms enough (though we try):
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Once you display a skill, you own it.
Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias, as last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are often discounted, and previous track records are often forgotten.
So this week, we're striking...
Almost!
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