SPECULATOR: Fighting recency bias—2019 pitchers
Mar 6 2019
Last week in this space, we looked at several "recency bias" hitters whose draft costs may be overly influenced by last year's stats. History says they have at least a 60/40 chance to regress toward the mean the following year—those odds grow even more for pitchers.
Since 2015, 92 starting pitchers have seen their ADP rise by 50+ picks in consecutive seasons (to reduce injury bias, we're limiting this to pitchers with 100+ IP in both seasons).
- 64 of those pitchers (70%) saw a decrease in 5x5 earnings per inning the following season.
And on the flip side, 76 starters have seen their ADP fall by 50+ picks in consecutive seasons.
- 44 of them (58%) saw an increase in 5x5 earnings per inning the following season.
While the odds are far...
Almost!
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