Recency Bias Rebounds, 2025

We say it every year, but the market focuses wayyy too much on last season. 

Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias, as last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are discounted, and previous track records are forgotten.

So this week, we're granting mulligans for certain 2024 performances. Perhaps the players we're about to list played through a hidden injury, tried a new approach that didn't work, or just simply had a bad year… it happens. To help build our list, we'll compare Average Draft Positions (ADPs) from 2024 to 2025 as follows:

  • Hitters...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Speculator

A look at who switched things up the most last season, and what that means for their 2025 outlook.
Feb 12 2025 3:05am
Using some of our new playing time component metrics to look at potentially higher PA ceilings for Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and others
Feb 5 2025 8:34am
We continue our "UP"side updates on the pitching side, plus a look at all players with "DN"-side boxes in the 2025 Baseball Forecaster
Jan 29 2025 3:05am
The Speculator returns with our annual update on Baseball Forecaster "UP:" siders whose outlooks may have changed since the book went to press.
Jan 22 2025 3:02am
We follow up on some early (and mid) season speculations to find out what went right, what went wrong, and what actually happened.
Sep 10 2024 3:03am

Tools