Recency Bias Rebounds, 2025

We say it every year, but the market focuses wayyy too much on last season. 

Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias, as last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are discounted, and previous track records are forgotten.

So this week, we're granting mulligans for certain 2024 performances. Perhaps the players we're about to list played through a hidden injury, tried a new approach that didn't work, or just simply had a bad year… it happens. To help build our list, we'll compare Average Draft Positions (ADPs) from 2024 to 2025 as follows:

  • Hitters...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Speculator

They come from all stages of the draft. We'll use history as our guide to speculate on this season's Top 15 players.
Mar 19 2025 3:10am
Applying some of Flaherty's pre-breakout traits to this year's player pool.
Mar 12 2025 3:05am
We'll apply some lessons learned from last year's pool to speculate on this year's breakouts.
Mar 5 2025 3:09am
Landmines are littered throughout the draft pool, even in the early rounds. We'll take a speculative look at which are most likely to bust.
Feb 26 2025 3:08am
A look at who switched things up the most last season, and what that means for their 2025 outlook.
Feb 12 2025 3:05am

Tools