2024's End of Season First Round

So much blood, sweat, and ink goes into dissecting every season's first round. We all see the same 15-20 names atop overall ranking lists for months, and it seems like a foregone conclusion that they'll finish near the top by season's end.

Truth is, we have little clue how the end-of-season first round will turn out. And if history is any indication, it'll look drastically different than it does in March.

Ron Shandler’s research in the Baseball Forecaster tells us that on average, just one-third of the market's Top 15 players will return first-round value at the end of the year. Here’s the total breakdown of first-round earners—defined as the Top 15 overall players in standard 5x5 mixed leagues—grouped by their preseason Average Draft Position (ADP) from 2014-23, excluding 2020:

ADP Bucket	# Players (Total)	# Players (Average)
1-15	41	5
16-45	44	5
46-105	27	3
106-180	13	1
180+	10	1
--	--	--
Starting Pitchers	34	4

 

 

Summary: They come from all stages of the draft.

So this week, we'll take a stab at a speculative first round. We'll pick the average number of players from each of the five ADP buckets above, keeping in mind that we'll need to choose at least four SP along the way. All ADP info taken from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship's (NFBC) Main Event leagues in March.

* * *

Picks 1-15 (5 players)

It's hard to stare at the seemingly bulletproof Top-15 class and think two-thirds of these guys won't return first-round value, but the numbers don't lie. Let's pick nits and use the process of elimination to whittle down our crew:

Injury risks: We already presented our case against Aaron Judge in our early-round Dodgeball column, so we won't re-hash it here. Corbin Carroll had a pretty major shoulder scare last June, and while his .281 BA-8 HR-30 SB second-half finish certainly plays, a potential recurrence at least introduces a shrivel of doubt in the first few picks. Yordan Alvarez has a "D" health grade and has yet to reach 600 MLB plate appearances in a season. Alvarez's complete lack of running game means he needs those lofty PA totals to have a shot at first-round value in 5x5 formats. And speaking of the admittedly arbitrary 600-PA threshold, Bryce Harper hasn't reached it since 2019. It's also been a full decade since his last $30 season.

And do we… gasp… even think of Ronald Acuña Jr. as a non-first-rounder? The near-unanimous top pick put a scare into fantasy leaguers everywhere with a knee issue this spring. The resulting meniscus irritation diagnosis was a bullet dodged (with just a "2" on our "Worry-O-Meter"), but are we completely sure Acuña is out of the woods? Will he be as aggressive on the basepaths? Will the knee flare up again at some point in May or June?

Skills loss: Similar to Judge, we picked some holes in Trea Turner's game in our Dodgeball exercise. Let's throw Juan Soto in here, not because he isn't skilled, but how conducive is his high-BB% approach to success in a standard 5x5 format? Soto has returned first-round value just once in his career—the shortened 2020 season—and it's fair to wonder how often he'll run in front of Judge in a new home park that suppresses our just "OK" .277 batting average projection.

A first-round pick with a "CON:" in their Baseball Forecaster box? Reason enough to eliminate Fernando Tatis Jr., whose "power was far off from 2021 breakout" with a barrel rate that dropped 10 points from his last full season. Given Tatis' history of shoulder issues and a PED suspension, might last season's 30 HR be a new ceiling? 

Pitchers: Spencer Strider is the lone starting pitcher going in the first round and is the clear-cut top starter this year. It's tough to poke holes in Strider's game—he answered durability questions with 187 regular-season IP in 2023—but the rash of pitcher injuries this spring is a stern reminder that no starter is "safe". Sorry, Spencer.

Shohei Ohtani of course isn't a pitcher this year, but position eligibility is at least a roster-building factor for not taking Ohtani in the first round. There's also an injury risk here coming off elbow surgery, so while Ohtani has looked fine this spring, he's a brutal final cut we have to make.

With some tough cuts behind us, here's the Fab Five that we'll roll with as end-of-season first-rounders:

Julio Rodríguez
Mookie Betts
Kyle Tucker
Freddie Freeman
Bobby Witt Jr.

 

Picks 16-45 (5 players)

Similar to previous seasons, there's a slew of starting pitchers going in this range as teams look to secure their "ace". Since we didn't pick Strider as a first-rounder and need to fill the group with four, let's snag a few from this tier. ADP and projections shown below:

Player	ADP	MM Code	15$	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
Burnes, Corbin	18	5405 AAB	$30	189	3.1	1.08	225
Wheeler, Zack	19	4305 BAA	$29	189	3.29	1.06	200
Castillo, Luis	23	4405 CAB	$27	189	3.43	1.11	209
Glasnow, Tyler	24	5503 FCA	$22	152	3.43	1.1	206
Kirby, George	27	4203 ABA	$28	174	3.21	1.01	162
Lopez, Pablo	28	4403 CAA	$20	174	3.47	1.14	193
Yamamoto, Yoshinobu	31	3203 AAA	$18	167	3.45	1.17	163
Skubal, Tarik	33	4403 FAB	$17	145	3.6	1.08	172
Gausman, Kevin	36	4403 BAA	$21	174	3.31	1.18	200
Peralta, Freddy	43	4503 DAA	$20	160	3.6	1.09	205
Gallen, Zac	44	4305 CAB	$25	189	3.43	1.12	203

 

Breaking down Corbin Burnes' MM Code yields the best combination of health/reliability ("AAB") and pure skill ("5405") of anyone listed, so he's a pretty easy choice. Burnes' skills were down in 2023, but he reversed many of those trends in the second half and moves to a team that should provide run support in a pretty nice pitching park.

Our projections also say to take Zack Wheeler here, which makes sense given his combination of elite volume (fourth-most IP since 2019) and skills (167 BPX over the last three seasons combined).

We're taking a slight leap of faith with Freddy Peralta and his "D" health grade, but Peralta not only threw 167 IP in 2023, but he finished strong with the best K-BB% of any starting pitcher in the second half last season. Peralta's results were in line with that skill growth (2.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 79 IP) and prorate to a first-round campaign over a full season. At 28 years old, Peralta is young enough to take that next step and hold this together for an entire six months.

Pivoting back to hitters, how about Michael Harris II (pictured)? He had a brutal start to 2023, but salvaged things with a near-20/20 season backed by contact growth (80% ct%, .286 xBA), plus power (10% barrel rate, 15% xHR/F), and excellent speed (83% SB%). Harris realistically needs an ATL injury to move to the top of the order, but his Forecaster box ending was tailor-made for this column: "With 600+ PA… UP: 1st round value". 

CJ Abrams and his "UP: 70 SB" from the Forecaster could certainly lead to a first-round season, especially since he's not just a one-trick pony. Abrams posted near-league-average power last season (94/96 PX/xPX; 7% barrel rate), and there's batting average upside given his in-season contact growth (and likely uptick from 2023's 28% h%—can a hitter with Abrams' speed and 44% groundball rate really post a below-average h% again?). Abrams should be a fixture atop the WAS lineup, he's still just 23 years old, and he was a former top-five prospect. Sky's the limit.

 

Picks 46-105 (3 players)

Maybe we're falling into the "best shape of his life" trap, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. is off the fast food! From a recent MLB.com article on his offseason approach:

“This is how serious Chisholm is about not spending a day on the injured list: His daily McDonald’s trips are over. He hired a chef and it’s about eating right. He even has a personal physical therapist. According to Schumaker, Chisholm spent part of his offseason with former big leaguer Matt Holliday and talked about the art of hitting.”

Durability concerns aside, Chisholm has always had the power/speed combination to be a first-round pick. In just 383 PA last season, he hit 19 HR with 22 SB with firm support from our underlying metrics (19 xHR, 129/125 PX/xPX; 30% SBA%, 88% SB%) and he's still just entering his age-26 season. Here's hoping fewer trips to the Golden Arches result in fantasy gold. Chisholm's already a first-rounder on a per-PA basis.

He did it *...checks notes…* LAST SEASON, so why can't he do it again? Reining Cy Young award winner Blake Snell's draft price likely sank because of his extended free agency, but he lands in a pitchers' paradise (SF) on a "prove it" contract (two-year, $62 million with an opt-out after this season). Sure, Snell's extreme 89% S% and 2.25/3.62 ERA/xERA question a full repeat, but he's a strikeout machine with the best secondary pitches in the game (24% SwK from his curveball; 25% change-up; 22% slider in 2023). Elite swing-and-miss skills, two Cy Youngs, and just his age-31 season? We'll bet on Snell again.

Let's dip to the bottom of this tier and go with Seiya Suzuki, who put up first-round production over the second half last season (.319 BA, 14 HR, 5 SB in 311 PA). Suzuki struggled in the first half, but we'll write that off to an early oblique strain and neck issues. A healthy Suzuki posted some elite BA skills (.295 xBA), plus raw power (20% xHR/F, 12% barrel rate) and excellent raw speed (139 RSpd) down the stretch. He could be an IL-free season away from posting top-notch numbers.

 

Picks 106-180 (1 player)

An "UP: 15 HR, 40 SB" from the Forecaster for Jarren Duran would certainly do the trick here. Duran is set to be Boston's everyday left fielder and might even hit leadoff, which would pave the way for his plus BA skills, elite speed, and league-average power to flourish. Duran has yet to reach 400 PA in a season thanks to injury and inconsistent playing time, but a long leash and run of good health should lift him to new heights.

 

Picks 181+ (1 player)

This is where the speculatin' really gets fun…

I posed this question on Twitter / "X" Monday night and got a TON of excellent responses. Feel free to click and read through the 150+ replies; it's worth your time and could serve as an entire endgame target list alone:

As for my pick? Let's go with Maikel Garcia, who hit .272 with 23 SB over 515 PA in his age-23 rookie season. Garcia only hit 4 HR, but his underlying 105 xPX and 8 xHR suggest there's some latent power lurking, and there's a decent chance he leads off in KC. The Forecaster tabbed Garcia as a "growth stock profile"; we're speculating that it all comes together quickly.

 

 

 

The Speculator is not designed to make definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.

 

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