GM's OFFICE: First Pitch Arizona Rookie League, June 2017

Welcome to one of the very few fantasy leagues where the Mike Trout injury has no effect. 

This, of course, is the First Pitch Arizona Rookie League, an experimental brainstorm that some industry folk played out at last fall's First Pitch Arizona Conference. You can read the all the juicy details here (including a link to the rosters) but the Cliff’s Notes version is this:

• League size of eight teams
• Teams roster 14 players (eight position players, one UT, five pitchers)
• Categories are AB, BA, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; IP, W, K, ERA, WHIP for pitchers
• Traditional roto scoring
• ALL players must have rookie eligibility as of beginning of the 2017 season; only stats accrued in MLB count towards standings
• A true draft-and-hold; no trades, FA acquisitions or injury replacements

Because of the emphasis on total AB and IP (both are scoring categories), playing time in this league is paramount. But in the end, it’s only two of the 10 categories, and there is no way to have any minimum AB/IP to qualify. Still, one of the things I was interested in was how having playing time as a category affected the results. 

We did a short update the second half of this April column, in terms of which rostered players made the Opening Day MLB rosters—a fact that gave those owners a bit of a head-start, if you will. Now with over 10 weeks of the MLB season in the books, we figured it was time for a check-up, to revisit each of these squads, and the overall shape of this league.

First off, here is the Overall standings and Hitting/Pitching breakdown as of June 15:

The public link to the league can be found here.

Let’s step through these teams in standings order, and look at current assessment and what the rest of the season might hold.

1. Lawr Michaels, Mastersball; 69 pts
Team view: Very comfortable overall first place cushion, built on a balanced hitting/pitching mix. Despite having the second-most AB in the league, he’s maintained a .269 BA, and is first or second in the rest of the hitting counting categories. It’s a similar story on the pitching side (lots of IP, but good ranking in other categories) though he’s not quite as comfortable.
Player highlights: Two words: Aaron Judge. It is remarkable, though, that Michaels’ offensive prowess in the league is due mainly to just two players: Judge and Hunter Renfroe. The duo accounts for 463 out of his teams’ 527 AB, for instance. On the pitching side, with Josh Hader’s promotion this week, Michaels now has contributions from all five of his pitchers. Antonio Senzatella, a 13th-round (next-to-last) pick, has led the way.
Outlook: Though he has a big lead, this race is far from over, especially on the pitching side, as Senzatella, Jacob Faria, or Hader are ... well, rookie pitchers (as they all are in this league). The Matt Chapman promotion this week should help pad his power numbers. 

2. Chris Blessing, BaseballHQ; 57.5 pts
Team view: Strong showing in second place, but definitely a pitching-heavy squad. Needs some extra AB (currently 6th) from a few power guys (currently T6 in HR; 5th in RBI) to make up ground. Like Michaels in hitting, Blessing’s pitching starts with a big lead in playing time (a 47-inning cushion) that propels the other categories (1st in Wins, Strikeouts and WHIP). But the counting-stats leads aren’t necessarily safe.
Player highlights: Been mostly Andrew Benintendi (first overall pick) on offense, though if Derek Fisher sticks, it will be a boost. Tom Murphy’s return will also help; but Roman Quinn’s elbow injury eliminates him (and a big potential SB source) for the bulk of the season. Amazingly, Ty Blach’s ho-hum performance might be gold in this format (70 IP so far; 4.24 ERA, 1.214 WHIP), even though Amir Garrett certainly has much better skills—but a ratio-wrecking 6.91 ERA an 1.500 WHIP. If Jeff Hoffman stays in the rotation—and even if his stats back up some—he’ll be another boost.
Outlook:  Casey Gillaspie, Joey Wendle, and Peter O’Brien seem unlikely to help much at all the rest of the way. Having Ozzie Albies get hot at AAA and force the Braves hand later in the summer would be a good thing for this squad.

3. Jock Thompson, BaseballHQ, 50.5 pts
Team view: Thompson is mashing on offense, due to a 234-AB lead and the subsequent counting stats that go with it. He is 6th in SB with five, but the leader (Michaels) has only 11. Pitching is another story, where nasty ratios and only middle-of-the-pack IP, K, W have not produced much overall value. 
Player highlights: Six of his nine hitters have contributed; and four of them with at least 100 AB. Mitch Haniger’s return will only further solidify his him on offense, though none of Chance Sisco, Kevin Newman or Jake Bauers seem like they are particularly close to promotions. . But there’s two interesting names on the pitching side, as Francis Martes and Alex Meyer could provide innings and lots of strikeouts. Questions remain around José De León’s injury status. 
Outlook:  Though he needs the pitching help, he might be rooting against Cody Reed’s (CIN) return, given his struggles at the MLB level. He has the depth on offense to continue to keep the pressure on Michaels. Also, Thompson's situation is a reminder of the quirkiness of this format: In a traditional league, he would be ripe to swap out some of his hitting for a pitching boost. But here, you dance with who you brought to the party.

4. Eric Karabell, ESPN, 45.5 pts
Team view: Tied for the fifth in overall hitting points, Karabell’s squad is squarely in the middle of the pack in AB, but has very little to go with them, outside of eight SB (good for third in that category). His pitching ratios have been solid, and though his counting stats lag behind some, he’s within another handful of overall points if his pitching improves. 
Player highlights: Offense so far is led by 9th-round selection Chad Pinder (whose 8 HR has kept him in that race) and Manuel Margot, whose injury absence has hurt. Recent promotions of Ramiel Tapia and Sam Travis will help, at least in the AB category. His pitching ratios have relied largely on the work of Jharel Cotton, he of the 60.1 IP, 5.52 ERA, 1.459 WHIP. Recent performances from Ben Lively and Sean Newcomb indicate Karabell’s pitching ratios have very recently improved, and serve a reminder of how quickly things change in these small sample sizes. 
Outlook:  There’s some upside potential here on the pitching side; in addition to Lively/Newcomb (assuming they stick in the majors), Karabell has Lucas Giolito toiling away at Triple-A. Giolito’s has not been lights-out, but could provide innings and Ks once he is back up at some point this season. On the batting side, needed power could come from any of Willie Calhoun, Ryan McMahon, Dan Vogelbach, Jorge Alfaro or Dylan Cozens. All of those players are close to the majors, though some of their current path to the bigs looks smoother than others. 

5. Clay Link, RotoWire; 42 pts
Team view:  With a solid AB number, Link has slugged his way to third in HR and RBI, but his .244 team BA has dropped him to 7th in that category, and he has just 2 SB all season. His below-average pitching score has been a function of fewer IP (6th), but without the ratios to make up for it. Is tied for third in Wins, but second place is five wins away. 
Player highlights: Entire offense is from three players with two profiles: Big surprises, both in playing time (Ian Happ) and performance (Trey Mancini); and a big disappointment in performance though he’s continued to play through it (Dansby Swanson, though he’s picked up the pace lately). There could be some bats to help on the way, but few natural openings at this point. Pitching has been but one guy, and when you’ve struggled like Robert Gsellman has (4.95 ERA, 1.461 WHIP), well, what you see is what you get. 
Outlook:  Lots of ball to be played yet, but the overall outlook here is a bit grim. Several players are either still just at Double-A (C Francisco Mejía; 3B Miguel Andujar, OF Greg Allen [also injured]; P Yohander Méndez) or without a clear path to playing time (1B Rowdy Tellez; OF Clint Frazier; OF Alex Verdugo). Tyler Beede is the closest pitcher to coming up and aiding Gsellman on the staff. That’s not to say that MLB teams won’t promote players from AA, or that there’s a lack of talent here. It’s just that two-plus months in, it seems Link will need some good fortune to get back in this race. 

6. Jeff Zimmerman, FanGraphs, 34 pts
Team view: Here’s where things get a bit wacky. On offense, Zimmerman has accumulated just 76 AB; 199 AB separate him from the 7th place team. As to be expected, this team is last in HR (2) and RBI (9) and T7 with 2 SB. But a .276 BA in those 76 AB is good for first place in that category. Things are a bit more stable on the pitching side: a competitive third in IP and second in K, but bottom third in ERA, WHIP and wins. 
Player highlights: On offense, it’s all Austin Barnes (well, and one AB from Teoscar Hernández). Other hitters seem close to the majors, and will likely be up at some point—A.J. Reed, Franklin Barreto, J.P. Crawford and Nick Williams specifically. But it will be tough to maintain that edge in batting average with such  long climbs ahead in the power categories, especially. Pitching is a bit more balanced, but dominated by Tyler Glasnow’s 54.1 IP (along with 7.45 ERA and 1.914 WHIP). Glasnow was finally sent back down to the minors this week, so it will be up to Chad Green and Matt Strahm to try and undo some of the ratio damage in the short term.
Outlook: July trades could open up opportunities for some of Zimmerman's hitters, either on a player's new club or with a new opportunity with their current clubs. But there’s a lot of ground to cover. Pitcher Luke Weaver, though, has had a fine start in AAA and could also help undo the Glasnow damage. In fact, if Glasnow can find a fix with his control, he could also give this squad a big pitching boost later on, just from his knockout strikeout numbers.

7. Brian Walton, Mastersball, 33.5 pts
Team view: Walton is nothing if not consistent so far: 7th in the overall standings; 7th in hitting and 7th in pitching. AB have been slower to come by (just 275 overall), but like Zimmerman, he has been able to post a quality BA (.269). But the cost is neither much pop nor speed to this point. The team was dealt a very tough pitching blow (more on that below), so is last with just 28.2 total innings pitched, though a 3.14 ERA is good for first place—by a wide margin—in that category. But the squad is last in Ks and wins (none to this point). 
Player highlights: It’s notable that after the first several rounds of the draft, Walton intentionally chose some players with lower rookie profiles, in hopes of garnering more playing time stats (IP, AB) to drive some of the other categories. It’s not worked out so well yet, outside of TJ Rivera—107 AB, .271 BA—and Andrew Toles, at least before his injury. It would seem, though, that Walton has some high-profile AB queued up for the rest of the season: Bradley Zimmer is up now, with Amed Rosario and possibly Austin Meadows and Dominic Smith to join them. His offense could still make some noise the rest of the season. The pitching is still reeling from the spring training loss of RHP Alex Reyes, a shoo-in for a Cardinals rotation spot, with likely tons of Ks and good ratios. So right now, all of Walton’s pitching stats are in the hands of reliever Edubray Ramos, a pitching-side example of that non-hyped rookie player with a role. Without Reyes, though, Brent Honeywell and Carson Fulmer represent his main hope of moving up in the pitching standings. 
Outlook:  Slightly better than one might think given Walton’s 7th place standing, especially on the hitting side. The loss of Reyes and the fact that no nother starting pitcher of his has contributed yet really affects his pitching upside.

8. Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs, 28 pts
Team view: This team has had some hitting success; a solid 4th or 5th with some upside in all the categories except batting average (a league-worst .235). But Longenhagen's lack of pitching innings—just 36.2 for the year—has hampered efforts from the mound. 
Player highlights: This team was constructed with high-upside players; Cody Bellinger is a best-case scenario of how impactful getting one of these right can be. Bellinger is obviously carrying his offense, with Elias Díaz and Christian Arroyo playing supporting roles. But Lewis Brinson, Yoán Moncada, and Gleyber Torres have impact tools that could find MLB time later this summer—Brinson, obviously, just got the call. Most of Longenhagen's innings have come from Frankie Montas, who is racking up the strikeouts but whose ratios are problematic. The James Kaprielian injury, a much lesser version of the Walton's Reyes situation, takes away some possible pitching help.
Outlook:  Much stronger on the hitting side, where if either Moncada or Torres join Brinson, stats could pile up quickly. Several rostered players have fantastic futures—Nick Senzel, Yadier Álvarez and Cal Quantrill are three—but are not close to the majors, and unlikely to make the jump to MLB this season. Chih-Wei Hu is the only pitcher to have any real shot of making this more than a Montas-only staff. 

This has been a fun league to check in on from time-to-time over these first 10 weeks, something totally different. The sample sizes are small, so there's still lots of movement that could happen. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts in the comments section below. We'll circle back to this league another time or two this season.

 

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