2024 Prognosticating Successes, Part 2
Oct 18 2024
It's been a record-breaking year, both good (Shohei!) and not-so-good (ChiSox!). Hopefully, you ended the year with a trophy on the shelf. Of course, the excitement isn't over, as the playoffs are in full swing, and we're counting down the days to First Pitch Arizona. But as we close the door on the 2024 fantasy baseball season, it's time to take a look at how BaseballHQ did in our pre-season predictive player analysis.
Here, we go into detail on our many 2024 hits—where our process foretold a spike or dip in performance. Most of these commentaries appeared either on the site in the pre-season or in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster. Each provides a concrete example of how our projection model and the analysis that stems from it continues to put you in a position to win your league.
Pitchers are covered here; hitters were covered last week.
Tarik Skubal: Rehab from 2022 flexor tendon surgery kept him out until July; 2nd half DOM%/DIS% worth the wait. Velocity uptick helped broad repertoire play up, as SwK spiked into elite territory. BB%, K% were top-shelf; another GB% spike made HR a non-issue. Pullback is likely. But Health caveat aside, we’re buyers. UP: 160 IP, 3.25 ERA. (Thompson)
2023: 7 wins, 2.89 ERA, 15.4 SwK in 80 IP
2024: 18 wins, 2.39 ERA, 13.7 SwK in 192 IP
Chris Sale: Is one of the better LIMA targets in the game due to his excellent projected skills and significant durability concerns. He had a normal off-season for the first time in a few years, and he's in an organization that won't expect him to be their rotation anchor. It wouldn't be surprising to see him have a big year in 2024. (Nickrand)
2023: 6 wins, 4.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 102 IP
2024: 18 wins, 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in 177 IP
Garrett Crochet: Another pitcher whose ramp-up from Tommy John surgery has gone slowly. His rehab was complicated by a shoulder injury in 2023. He was a top-75 prospect back in 2021 and has looked dominant over four appearances this spring (12/0 K/BB in 9 IP). Crochet is an excellent speculation at his 618 ADP. (Nickrand)
2024: 3.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 146 IP
Tanner Houck: Spent off-season recovering from spinal surgery, and just as he began to look more comfortable in June, was struck in face by line drive that required orbital surgery, sidelining him for two months. Despite inconsistent role throughout career, above-average SwK%, GB% are reasons to consider him as late-round dart. UP: 3.50 ERA over 150 IP. (Marcus)
2023: 6 wins, 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 106 IP
2024: 9 wins, 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 178 IP
Chris Bassitt: His ability to induce soft contact has been the driver of his success. But he carries some specific warning signs heading into 2024. For one, he's coming off the first consecutive 180+ IP seasons of his career. At age 35, we can't bank on him doing it a third time. Pluse, his ability to miss bats has gone from decent to subpar over the past three seasons: 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.7% SwK%. (Nickrand)
2023: 16 wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 200 IP
2024: 10 wins, 4.16 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 171 IP
David Bednar: PRO: Three-straight sub-3.00 ERAs; splendid K rate backed by consistently elite SwK; big save total cements role. CON: xERA over 3.00 each of those three seasons; xHR/F points to HR regression; skills ebbed noticeably from June on. Given track record, he'll get lots of leeway. But with a FB tilt, there's blow-up risk if the 2nd-half skills trend continues. (Truesdell)
2023: 39 saves, 2.00 ERA, 18% SwK, 3% HR/F in 67 IP
2024: 23 saves, 5.77 ERA, 14% SwK, 11% HR/F in 57 IP
Hunter Brown: Don't let 5.00+ ERA fool you—there's still a lot to like in these skills. Already owns a solid power/GB base; needs to refine breaking stuff to take the next step in dominance. Relatedly, he allowed more than his share of HR, as hitters started sitting on the fastball. Young enough to adjust, and as xERA shows, he already owns... UP: 3.50 ERA (Truesdell)
2023: 11 wins, 5.09 ERA in 156 IP
2024: 11 wins, 3.49 ERA in 170 IP
Zach Eflin: Early IL stint (back) reminded us of his fragility; creaky knees didn't send him to IL in 2023, but required maintenance. Otherwise, this was impressive: cutter now entrenched as part of three-pitch mix, helping control artist push beyond pedestrian K%; gave back ground ball gains in 2nd half, but not overly concerning. With health, looks repeatable. (Olson)
2023: 16 wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 177 IP
2024: 10 wins, 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 165 IP
Nathan Eovaldi: After first-rate 1st half, lost seven weeks to forearm strain, but got tuned up in time for post-season run (5-0, 2.95 ERA). If you write off 2nd half to injury, xERA, xWHIP held stable, though losing velocity, SwK with age could bite him, as he's never been K% standout. IL days are part of the package, but another sub-4.00 ERA is doable. (Olson)
2023: 12 wins, 3.62 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 144 IP
2024: 12 wins, 3.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 170 IP
Erick Fedde: Added a sweeper in South Korea and dominated KBO hitters. Given his long history of ugly stats and mediocre skills in the majors prior to that, the market isn't putting a lot of stock into his adjustments (445 ADP). Still, he's a worthy speculation if you can get him as your SP6 or later. (Nickrand)
2024: 9 wins, 3.30 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 177 IP
Jack Flaherty: Deadline deal to BAL didn't go as planned, as H%, HR/F conspired to offset reining in of 1st half wildness, and while he dodged IL, did battle hip discomfort, "general soreness." And LHB gave him increasing fits as season wore on. That said, if 2nd half was a step back towards 2021 skill level, sub-4.00 ERA not out of question. (Olson)
2023: 8 wins, 4.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in 144 IP
2024: 13 wins, 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 162 IP
Bowden Francis: Is being ignored in nearly every league (721 ADP). Nonetheless, tuck away the 35/8 K/BB in 36 IP that he posted out of the TOR bullpen in 2023. That level of command (19% K-BB%) gave him a 135 BPV during that period. He's 27, but he could be worth a look in very deep leagues. He owns a strong 12.5% SwK% and 31% Ball% this spring. (Nickrand)
2024: 8 wins, 3.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 103 IP
Logan Gilbert: Ditched change-up, added splitter, and it immediately became great K pitch (18.8% SwK); then dialed up slider to 19.6% SwK in 2nd half. K% didn't reflect growth as much as it could have, but with elite control already in place, more strikeouts could take him up another notch. Given strong skill support for 2023, we can speculate on repeat plus... UP: 215 K (Kruse)
2023: 13 wins, 3.73 ERA, 189 K in 191 IP
2024: 9 wins, 3.23 ERA, 220 K in 208 IP
Hunter Greene: Hip pain started in early June, landed him on IL two weeks later, and kept him out of action for two months—2nd half slides in SwK, velocity were likely related. Posted a 3.54 xERA, 9% BB%, 33% K%, and 15.1% SwK in 11 GS prior to injury. Stable xBB%, career 24% K-BB% vL are good signs, and with health, still offers... UP: 3.50 ERA, 225 K (Kruse)
2023: 4 wins, 4.82 ERA in 112 IP
2024: 9 wins, 2.75 ERA in 150 IP
Jeff Hoffman: Prior to 2023, Hoffman had a lifetime 5.68 ERA, 20% K%, and 11% BB% in 348 IP. The strides he made in 2023 were remarkable and they came with skills support. Heading into spring training, there is uncertainty surrounding the closer role for the Phillies. Don’t be surprised if the 31-year-old winds up seizing the job and leading the team in saves. He’s an excellent target at his near-600 ADP. (Pyron)
2023: 1 save, 2.41 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 52 IP
2024: 10 saves, 2.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 66 IP
Shota Imanaga: Had 2.51 ERA over past three seasons in Japan with significant strikeout bump in 2023. Primary concern is that he's been homer-prone—served up the 2nd-most HR in league last year—so landing spot will be important. Upside is probably that of a solid mid-rotation starter, and could fulfill that promise right away. (Rudd)
2024: 15 wins, 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 173 IP
Michael King: Second straight dominant season, this one featured seamless rotation move in Aug (48/9 K/BB, 1.88 ERA last 8 GS). Some S% fortune involved and SwK softened, but Ks kept flowing and "x" ratios held strong. Four-pitch arsenal bodes well if transition sticks, but don't expect this skill level over a full SP workload. Pieces are here for mid-rotation success. (Bloomfield)
2023: 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 21% K-BB% in 104 IP
2024: 2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 18% K-BB% in 173 IP
Reynaldo López: There’s a lot to like in the underlying skills. His 2023 K% was a career-best and it came with SwK% support. Though his BB% soared to the worst full-season mark of his career, his xBB% points to likely recovery. Barring a disastrous spring, the Braves want to begin the season with López as the fifth starter knowing they can always shift him back to the bullpen later to help manage his workload. The 30-year-old has intriguing profit potential near his 573 ADP. (Pyron)
2023: 3 wins, 3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 66 IP
2024: 8 wins, 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 135 IP
Sean Manaea: After spending time at Driveline following the 2022 season, he posted career-high velocity in 2023. Most of that uptick stuck in September when he made four starts (93.0 mph, which would’ve still been a career-high). An unfortunate S% has artificially damaged his ERA in 2022-23, as evidenced by xERA. The 32-year-old isn’t flashy, but he can be useful near his ADP (355 since January 1). (Pyron)
2023: 7 wins, 4.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 117 IP
2024: 12 wins, 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 181 IP
Nick Martinez: Toed the rotation/multi-inning relief line for second straight season. Similar results, but with positive signs as GB% entered elite territory and 2nd half uptick in whiffs and Ks was fueled by more elite change-ups (25% SwK). Fantasy relevance hinges on starting gig, but late skill growth/approach change makes him a fine dart throw. (Bloomfield)
2023: 6 wins, 3.43 ERA in 110 IP
2024: 10 wins, 3.10 ERA in 142 IP
James McArthur: Moved up and down to AAA after May trade; ended season as primary closer. Notable 2nd half growth fueled the ascent with plenty of strikes (xBB%), more Ks, higher velocity, and extreme GB% tilt. Track record has its doubts, but a sneaky closer target if late skills hold. (Young)
2023: 4 saves, 4.63 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 23 IP
2024: 18 saves, 4.92 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 56 IP
Triston McKenzie: Lost season started with March shoulder strain, effectively ended with June elbow strain after just two starts. Returned with a full tick off his fastball in late Sept and BB% collapsed, so while he owns 2022 skills, lingering arm issues like this have "ticking time bomb" vibes. (Bloomfield)
2023: 0 wins, 5.06 ERA in 16 IP
2024: 3 wins, 5.11 ERA in 75 IP
Reese Olson: Rookie was inconsistent early after June callup; ended MLB debut on a plus note—6 earned runs, 35/13 K/BB over 36 IP in his final six starts. 2nd half aided by H% luck; control still a work-in-progress; xHR/F a red flag. But age, SwK, ability to check RHBs are building blocks. Back-end SP growth stock. (Thompson)
2023: 5 wins, 3.98 ERA, in 104 IP
2024: 4 wins, 3.53 ERA in 112 IP
Ryan Pepiot: Legitimate prospect had inside track on Opening Day rotation before oblique injury shelved him in late March; didn’t take the mound again until 2nd half. FB% still needs work, but he cut into problematic BB% in small sample despite downtime. Plus change-up fronts promising arsenal. If healthy, buy this growth stock. (Thompson)
2023: 2 wins, 2.14 ERA in 42 IP
2024: 9 wins, 3.60 ERA in 130 IP
David Peterson: Quietly has looked dominating over his first three starts in September (22/3 K/BB in 16 IP). His rate of whiffs has soared (17.2% SwK%), he's still getting a lot of groundballs (53% GB%), and he's keeping the ball over the plate. Whether he can do that over sustained stretches is the main question. Nonetheless, he's another pitcher with SP2 upside that will be available (and a bargain) in most 2024 drafts. (Nickrand)
2023: 3 wins, 5.03 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 111 IP
2024: 10 wins, 2.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 121 IP
Cole Ragans: There are two ways to look at him: In one scenario, he went to the Royals and figured something out. In the other scenario, he was able to harness his command issues for 12 starts, but hasn't necessarily “solved” anything. We're more inclined to believe the first scenario and because we like to gamble when the odds are in our favor, this is a great place to do that (that 21% K-BB% post-trade is sooo enticing). We say buy if you don't mind some risk. (Cederholm)
2023 Second Half: 5 wins, 2.64 ERA in 72 IP
2024: 11 wins, 3.14 ERA in 186 IP
Jordan Romano: Was sailing along at established skill level when a back issue forced him from the All-Star Game. Hit the IL in late July, but 2nd half results (thanks, H%/S%) papered over the ballooning walk rate and uncharacteristic FB binge. If we get the 1st half pitcher, all is well. But newfound health risk should be baked into the price in the meantime. (Sporer)
2023: 36 saves, 2.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 59 IP
2024: 8 saves, 6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 13 IP
Joe Ryan: Some will see "step backward," but that horrific turn of H%, HR/F rate luck can take credit for "collapse," along with a mid-season groin strain. Fly ball tilt, penchant for hard contact may create some volatility, but there's progress here in SwK, K%, despite 2nd half results. Good chance that ERA is headed back under 4.00. Buy the dip. (Olson)
2023: 11 wins, 4.51 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 161 IP
2024: 7 wins, 3.60 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 135 IP
Cristopher Sánchez: Has been a big help to the few fantasy managers who speculated on him in 2023 drafts (750 ADP). A refined changeup has been the driver of his 3.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 146 BPV in 91 IP. He also carries an extreme groundball tilt that limits his blowup risk. Sánchez's low innings total could keep him overlooked in 2024 drafts. (Nickrand)
2023: 3 wins, 3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in 99 IP
2024: 11 wins, 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 181 IP
Luis Severino: A high-risk bet to re-establish himself as a rotation anchor, especially given the huge drop-off in his skills during 2023 (82 BPV). However, Severino posted a 140+ BPV in his three prior seasons, and he's the kind of pitcher who could benefit from a fresh start with a new club. He's a great investment at his 331 ADP. (Nickrand)
2023: 4 wins, 6.65 ERA, 1.65 WHIP in 89 IP
2024: 11 wins, 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 182 IP
Blake Snell: As unusual a season as you'll ever see. Skills-wise, nearly a carbon copy of 2021, just with absurd hit/strand% help. Usually high S% comes with fluky-low HR/F, but not here; obviously this level of S% is unsustainable. And the IP total should be treated as every bit the same. 2022 should be your bid-level baseline. (Murphy)
2022: 128 IP, 8 W, 3.38 ERA, $6
2023: 180 IP, 14 W, 2.25 ERA, $29
2024: 104 IP, 5 W, 3.12 ERA, $8
Ranger Suárez: Suárez has exceeded expectations thus far, posting a stellar 1.50 ERA and 0.72 WHIP through 54 IP, but there is reason to be skeptical. He's done a great job of limiting free passes, but xBB% suggests he’ll probably give back a smidge of those early gains. The leap in K% certainly catches the eye. However, his SwK% is a tick below-average and aligns with a 22% xK%. He has been aided by a fortuitous H%/S%. He has completed more than 135 IP in a season just once as a professional. Suárez has displayed better skills in 2024, but he isn’t truly this good. The 28-year-old is likely to post an ERA much closer to 4.00 the rest of the way. (Pyron)
2024 pre-writing: 7 wins, 1.50 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 24% K-BB% in 54 IP
2024 post-writing : 5 wins, 4.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 14% K-BB% in 96 IP
Robert Suárez: Elbow injury cost him entire first half, he returned mid-summer with base skills (Vel, SwK) seemingly intact, but obscured by a really weird H%- S%- HR/F combo. Sample size is sketchy, but GB% bump is a nice addition to this package if it sticks. On the other hand, health is now a concern, but if that checks out... UP: 25 Sv, still. (Murphy)
2023: 0 saves, 3.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 31 IP
2024: 36 saves, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in 65 IP
Justin Verlander: He's again dealing with a teres major strain (same injury that cost him 36 days on the IL in 2023), he's 41, and his skills declined across the board in 2023. His 160 IP projection looks optimistic, as he isn't even facing live hitters. It's all downside risk with pretty much no upside. For those reasons, we're out, even at his max ADP. (Cederholm)
2023: 13 wins, 3.22 ERA in 162 IP
2024: 5 wins, 5.48 ERA in 90 IP
Ryan Walker: Solid rookie campaign. Sinker/slider pitcher flipped usage rates in the 2nd half, increasing slider usage from 43% to 55%. That sparked a significant SwK%/K% jump and decrease in GB%. He also handled vL well. If the SwK%/K% sticks and the xBB% manifests, he could become late-inning weapon. (Pyron)
2023: 3 saves/holds, 3.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 61 IP
2024: 31 saves/holds, 1.91 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 80 IP
Taijuan Walker: Maybe early-season forearm tightness was a factor, but he altered pitch mix (more sinkers at expense of four-seam fastball) and velocity dipped, with results deteriorating as the year went on. His K-BB% fell well below-average and SwK%/xBB% say it was deserved. Only one sub-4.00 xERA in this box says rebound potential is modest at best. (Pyron)
2023: 15 wins, 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in 172 IP
2024: 3 wins, 7.10 ERA, 1.72 WHIP in 83 IP
BRyan Woo: Has been solid in his first full season in the majors (3.91 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 81 IP). While his skills have have eroded after his electric 179 BPV debut in June, check out his swinging strike rate over the past three months: 12.3%, 13.3%, 15.5% SwK%. He also has added a groundball approach in September (55% GB%). Those are small data samples, but his combination of strike-throwing and whiffs has been part of his prospect profile. He's an up-arrow pre-peak arm. (Nickrand)
2023: 4 wins, 4.36 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 88 IP
2024: 9 wins, 2.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in 121 IP
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