2024 Prognosticating Successes, Part 1
Oct 11 2024
It's been a record-breaking year, both good (Shohei!) and not-so-good (ChiSox!). Hopefully, you ended the year with a trophy on the shelf. Of course, the excitement isn't over, as the playoffs are in full swing, and we're counting down the days to First Pitch Arizona. But as we close the door on the 2024 fantasy baseball season, it's time to take a look at how BaseballHQ did in our pre-season predictive player analysis.
Following our look at the surprises earlier this week, we now go into detail on our many 2024 hits - where our process foretold a spike or dip in performance. Most of these commentaries appeared either on the site in the pre-season or in the 2024 Baseball Forecaster, and are noted below with author attribution. Each provides a concrete example of how our projection model and the analysis that stems from it continues to put you in a position to win your league.
Hitters are covered this week (stats in most cases are HR-RBI-SB-BA); pitchers will be covered next week.
Shohei Ohtani: Three straight $30+ returns make him firmly elite at the dish, and he hasn't reached his ceiling yet. xHR puts 50 homers in play, and 30-point jump in xBA validates that he can flirt with a .300 BA again. Went under knife for elbow surgery at end of year, but expected to be ready to hit by spring. If that's the case... UP: .300 BA, 50 HR (Nickrand)
2023: 44-95-20-.304 in 497 AB
2024: 54-130-57-.310 in 636 AB
Bobby Witt Jr.: Sophomore slump? Pfft. Went on SB rampage with elite wheels and constant green light. Powered up with Brl% and xPX gains, xHR says he deserved a few more HR, and 2nd half ct%, xBA boons gave the BA jump plenty of legs. Enjoy the first round, Bobby. We think you'll be here a while. (Bloomfield)
2023: 31-97-49-.276 in 641 AB
2024: 32-109-31-.332 in 636 AB
Juan Soto: Bounce-back from down 2022 included massive September (.340 BA, 10 HR, 6 SB). xBA gives the BA rebound plenty of legs as h% snapped back, hard contact returned in 2nd half, and modest running game reappeared despite Spd decline. Current GLF caps the longball totals, but if second-half tilt takes one more step... UP: 40 HR (Young)
2023: 35-109-12-.275 in 568 AB
2024: 41-109-7-.288 in 576 AB
Teoscar Hernández: QBaB shows another season of launch angle struggles and xBA suggests he may never retrace lofty BA levels but it’s still a plus by today’s standards. Exit velocity, barrel rate remain in fine shape, buoying power even at new GB% levels—and xHR say he was unlucky (again). So 30+ HR is still out there. (Thompson)
2023: 26-93-7-.258 in 625 AB
2024: 33-99-12-.272 in 589 AB
Shea Langeliers: 2nd half growth saw him tap into power skills while finding his stroke vL, and only bad luck on h% kept it from being more valuable. That .251 xBA in 2nd half suggests he can make this skill set work over the long-term as long as PX remains elite. Our scouting report classified his ceiling as "bomb power." Next step could be... UP: 30 HR (Kruse)
2023: 22-63-.205 in 448 AB
2024: 29-80-.224 in 482 AB
Wilyer Abreu: Swing change in minors last year unlocked some power and put him on a late-blooming prospect track. Flashed above-average patience, pop, and speed in late-season callup. That broad skill base, strong-side platoon fit, and ability to handle all three OF spots give him a lot of paths to end-game profit. (Murphy)
2023: 2 HR, 14 RBI in 79 AB
2024: 15 HR, 58 RBI in 397 AB
Willy Adames: Concussion cost him a couple of weeks in May/June; effects likely lingered as June was his worst month. Mediocre full-season line tamped down by 1st-half h% and HctX dips, but bounced back to career norms in 2nd half. Overall picture is one of stability: 30+ HRs might stay just out of reach, but xBA says he should rebound off this BA floor. (Murphy)
2023: 24-80-5-.217 in 553 AB
2024: 32-112-21-.251 in 610 AB
Jake Burger: Burger spent three weeks on the IL, and the power just hasn’t been there thus far in 2024 - but there’s reason for cautious optimism. The 2023 second half plate skills have carried over, and his contact quality metrics are still in decent shape. The GB% tilt and lack of pulled barrels has zapped his power. Our guess is the 28-year-old can level some of these things out a bit and produce numbers much closer to the level expected of him going forward. (Pyron)
2024 pre-note: 6-24-.230 in 204 AB
2024 post-note: 23-52-.253 in 331 AB
Alec Burleson: Burleson owned an elite contact rate (after years of steady growth), posted an above-average line-drive rate, and made plus hard contact, leaving his xBA over 30 points higher than his BA. There was also the suggestion of further power upside, as his xHR, xPX, and xHR/F were all higher than his standard numbers. His current 695 ADP suggests he could be readily available in a lot of leagues, and he could be worth a look in deep leagues as a bit of a speculative sleeper in the hopes that his skills eventually win him a larger role. (Kruse)
2023: 8-36-.244 in 315 AB
2024: 21-78-.269 in 547 AB
Lawrence Butler: An excellent post-hype play at his 690 ADP. He had five doubles in 45 AB this spring, and he reached that production while posting pristine plate skills (4/5 BB/K). (Nickrand)
2023: 4-10-0-.211 in 123 AB
2024: 22-57-18-.262 in 412 AB
Matt Chapman: A right middle finger sprain limited Chapman to just 36 games over the final two months of the 2023 season. While his HR total crashed in 2023, he hit lots of fly balls and the power metrics remained strong, including a 98th percentile Brl% and 100th percentile HH%. Both xHR and xHR/F highlight how unlucky he was and indicate 30 HR potential is still present. (Pyron)
2023: 17-54-4-.240 in 509 AB
2024: 27-78-15-.247 in 575 AB
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Durability concerns aside, Chisholm has always had the power/speed combination to be a first-round pick. In just 383 PA last season, he hit 19 HR with 22 SB with firm support from our underlying metrics (19 xHR, 129/125 PX/xPX; 30% SBA%, 88% SB%) and he's still just entering his age-26 season. Here's hoping fewer trips to the Golden Arches result in fantasy gold. Chisholm's already a first-rounder on a per-PA basis. (Bloomfield)
2023: 19-51-22-.250 in 352 AB
2024: 24-73-40-.256 in 562 AB
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Summoned for a little big league action in Sept (2023). Plus athlete, glove carries bat to playing time. Aggressive approach with ct% concerns. Hit career high in HR, sacrificing contact for a steeper launch angle, increasing loft. Struggles with velocity up. Plus runner; should develop into a SB threat. (Blessing)
2024: 10-47-27-.237 in 372 AB
Oneil Cruz: Fractured fibula during home plate collision ended his season on April 9. This walking toolshed in the body of an NBA small forward showed hints of progress to contact, walk, flyball, vL, SB% rates over an admittedly minuscule sample. If he can marry towering power and speed to modest gains in those areas... UP: 25 HR/25 SB (de Leonardis)
2023: 1-4-3-.250 in 32 AB
2024: 21-76-22-.259 in 541 AB
Jarren Duran: It wasn't ONLY the new SB rules. Made both more and better contact, especially in the 2nd half, though Aug toe injury and surgery wiped out final six weeks. His skill set, experience and opportunity seem to have consolidated. Assuming health, the next step could look like ... UP: 15 HR, 40 SB (Hershey)
2023: 8-40-24-.295 in 332 AB
2024: 20-73-34-.282 in 667 AB
Xavier Edwards: Enjoyed big season at AAA (.351/.429/.457) prior to callup. Short-statured switch-hitter with plus ct% skills. Slasher profile from LH side with plus bat control. More of a threat for XBH from RH side. Not much drop off of production from either side of the plate. Plus runner with great reactions and jumps on SB attempts. (Blessing)
2024: 1-26-31-.328 in 265 AB
Thairo Estrada: On his way to a big breakout in 2023 before a fractured hand got in the way. His first-half output was excellent (.272 BA, 9 HR, 31 RBI, 18 SB in 315 PA), but Estrada's rough overall 85.9 mph EV and 4.8% Brl% cap the potential in both his HR and counting stats. Furthermore, Estrada's chase rate jumped six points in 2023 (38% Chase). That combination of chase and lack of hard contact will send his batting average south, a risk shown in his .251 xBA from last season. (Nickrand)
2023: 14-49-23-.271 in 495 AB
2024: 9-47-2-.217 in 364 AB
Luis García (WAS): After slashing .259/.293/.362 with 6 HR through 407 PA in 2023, García was sent to Triple-A and returned in September to slash .304/.360/.507 with 3 HR in 75 PA the rest of the way. Though he hasn’t yet lived up to lofty expectations, there’s some sneaky profit potential here at his 401 ADP. (Pyron)
2023: 9-50-9-.266 in 447 PA
2024: 18-70-22-.282 in 500 PA
Paul Goldschmidt: Began 2023 as advertised but faded in second half. GB% spike, absence of authoritative contact confirmed by exit velocity and launch angle struggles. Perhaps he was pressing; the sum here is still pretty good and history, skills point to a rebound. But is age hinting at a new normal? Heed the Consistency grade. DN: 20 HR, .260 BA. (Thompson)
2023: 25-80-11-.268 in 593 AB
2024: 22-64-11-.244 in 599 AB
Ian Happ: Career-best BA from 2022 retreated to norms with h% regression, even as ct%, xBA consolidated. But plenty to like in this profile. Exit velocity looks entrenched; improved pitch selection fueled bb% rebound, boding well for power. Even running game took a step forward. Health adds to optimistic outlook; now multiple value paths to a repeat. (Thompson)
2023: 21-84-14-.248 in 580 AB
2024: 25-86-13-.242 in 569 AB
Gunnar Henderson: Full season debut from pedigreed prospect sprouted 2nd half wings with more aggressive approach. Sacrificed patience, OBP in the process, but contact skills and HR, BA spikes more than compensated. Launch angle can still use some work, but exit velocity, HR/F are already top-shelf; even running game hints at upside. He’s just getting started. (Thompson)
2023: 28-82-10-.256 in 563 AB
2024: 37-92-21-.281 in 630 AB
Ryan Jeffers: Outhit his competition enough over final two months to move from time share to primary catcher, and while 2nd half BA was inflated, ct% rebound was encouraging, and power skills evoked promise of 2020-21. Also owned career-best bb% while continuing to rip barrels and mash lefties. At his age, could finally be ready for... UP: 20 HR (Kruse)
2023: 14-43-.276 in 286 AB
2024: 21-64-.226 in 412 AB
Edouard Julien: Another example of the market paying close to full price for a player's upside without considering his downside. He's an exciting young player; however, there's a host of warning signs here. His severe platoon splits alone will limit his PT. In redraft leagues, he's not likely to be worth the price you'll need to pay. (Cederholm)
2023: 16-37-3-.263 in 338 AB
2024: 8-21-6-.199 in 266 AB
Steven Kwan: Take him for what he is: He'll help in BA, he gets on base at a good clip, has 20-SB speed, and hits at the top of the lineup, so Runs will be had. There's value there, especially if you've taken a low-BA, low-speed slugger earlier. Even a mere repeat of his 2023 is worthy of a 10th-round pick, but the market is averaging five rounds later than that. Buy? Yes. (Cederholm)
2023: 5-54-21-.271 with 94 Runs in 638 AB
2024: 14-44-12-.292 with 83 Runs in 480 AB (ADP 207; Rank 77)
Josh Lowe: Finally got a full helping of playing time, and delivered a solid year—but not one without warts. PRO: Superb SB% means bags are a given; contact and vL improvements give BA floor. CON: Exit velocity, xPX suggest some power pull-back; walk rate diving; xBA points to BA regression. A solid multi-category bat, just don't bid on a full repeat. (Truesdell)
2023: 20-83-.292, 32 SB in 466 AB
2024: 10-34-.241, 25 SB in 353 AB
Jorge Mateo: One-trick pony's window as a full-time player has just about shut. That means another 30+ steals is an increasingly unlikely proposition—not to mention that he's approaching the age where speed skills often begin to diminish. Heed the warning of that 2nd half, when younger, better players replaced him in the lineup... DN: <200 PA, <15 SB (Truesdell)
2023: 7-34-34-.217 in 318 AB
2024: 5-18-13-.229 in 192 AB
Zach Neto: The 13th overall draft choice in 2022, he spent two separate months on the IL (oblique strain, lower back pain), and the back bothered him in between, so it's fair to mulligan that 2nd half collapse. Fared well early and the power emerged. BA may take awhile to arrive, but... UP: 20+ HR (Truesdell)
2023: 8-33-4-.226 in 266 AB
2024: 23-77-30-.249 in 542 AB
James Outman: Power/speed combo netted fantasy managers big profit on his 511 ADP. However, there's more work to do. xHR, xHR/F and xBA point to significant regression off that big 2nd half, and overall exit velocity ranked in the game's 22nd percentile. Add in his poor ct% and expect pullback in his sophomore campaign. (Nickrand)
2023: 23-70-16-.248 in 483 AB
2024: 4-11-2-.147 in 136 AB
Ceddanne Rafaela: Called up to MLB after big second half in AAA. Undersized and short-levered yet packs a solid punch. High swing% hitter who spoils lots of pitches but expands zone. All-fields approach with surprising oppo pop. Defensive skills carry profile to immediate CF reps, and plus run tool should pad SB. (Blessing)
2024: 15-74-19-.246 in 544 AB
Cal Raleigh: Ended 2022 with broken thumb, torn ligament in left hand, requiring surgery, but no real sign of lingering impact. Sure, power skills weren't nearly as elite, and launch angle fluctuated more, but as xHR shows, 30 HR is legit, even as strikeouts will make it hard for him to hit .240. Account for that in roster build, and Big Dumper'll do you just fine. (Olson)
2023: 30-75-.232 in 513 AB
2024: 34-100-.220 in 546 AB
Harold Ramírez: Last two seasons of mid-range value almost entirely due to inflated BA. If regression suggested by xBA kicks in, all those lost hits would have cascading effect on OBP, R, and RBI. Even recent dominance vL has been driven by 43% hit rate. All of this makes him a very risky investment; don't be the one burned by... DN: Repeat of 2021 (Kruse)
2021: 7-41-.270, $8 R$ in 345 AB
2023: 12-69-.313, $18 R$ in 403 AB
2024: 2-29-.261, $4 R$ in 238 AB
Victor Robles: Sample is limited due to back injury that shut him down June 20, but improved OBP came with bb%, ct% growth. And while there will be some pullback via xBA and h%, getting on base is paramount given his elite Spd, SBA%, and SB%. There's no question the bat has disappointed, but with health, the wheels still simmer with upside. (Marcus)
2023: 0-8-8-.297 in 111 AB
2024: 4-28-34-.307 in 254 AB
Carlos Santana: He keeps rolling along, with only slight dips in his production (outside of BA). His ADP is again late reserve round, but a repeat of his 2023 would bring something like 18th-round value. Plus, there's a small chance of BA upside. Yes, there's definite age risk, but he's practically free. (Cederholm)
2023: 23-89-6-.244 in 554 AB
2024: 23-71-4-.238 in 521 AB (ADP 416; Rank 163)
Josh Smith: Spent full year in majors, but difficult to judge due to sporadic playing time. Brl%, xPX stand out as significant leaps forward from initial MLB sample, and Spd hints at SB return if light turns green again. Next step will require maintaining 2nd half ct% growth, tapping into power upside. Still young enough to get there; could be worth a flyer. (Marcus)
2023: 6-15-1-.185 in 195 AB
2024: 13-62-11-.258 in 523 AB
George Springer: First 20/20 season with career-best SB thanks to highest PA total since 2016 and greener light on base paths. Some warning signs, however, as power skills (xPX, xHR/F) didn't recover from 2022's rut, and it's tough to expect this amount of volume again given age, health history. Be cautious paying for a repeat. (Young)
2023: 21-72-20-.258 in 613 AB
2024: 18-53-16-.218 in 541 AB
Lane Thomas: Thrilling trip aboard the Lane Train thanks to HR/SB outburst, career-high BA, and a ton of volume to let R+RBI thrive. Next ride might be slightly more bumpy: xHR, QBaB hint at HR pullback; ditto for BA repeat given h% spike; and he likely maxed out PA. A strong five-category contributor, no doubt, but you're buying in after a career year. (Bloomfield)
2023: 28-86-20-.268 in 628 AB
2024: 15-63-32-.237 in 472 AB
Mark Vientos: Got healthy late in 2023 and began to convert his prospect pedigree into results (6 HR in 91 PA). In aggregate, Vientos displayed some of the game's best batted ball metrics among green batters (92.5 mph EV, 10.7% Brl%). Finding a higher swing plane (9.5 LA) would let him tap into his power skills more frequently. His ugly contact rate also jumped in September (70% ct%). At age 24, Vientos carries some nice post-hype profit potential. (Nickrand)
2023: 9-22-.203 in 226 AB
2024: 27-70-.268 in 410 AB
Jordan Walker: If you're ponying up a 9th-round pick for him, you're betting on a breakout. That's possible, but it's not something we're willing to pay even close to full price for. In addition to everything else, his poor defense is a threat to his playing time. He has talent but hasn't give us any real signs that a breakout is imminent, and there's still a ton of risk. (Cederholm)
2023: 16-51-7-.276 in 420 AB
2024: 5-20-1-.201 in 164 AB
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