(*) PT TOMORROW: NL West—Who will play in LA?
Jan 23 2015
The departure of Matt Kemp (OF, SD) this offseason has created an interesting competition for the third spot in LA's outfield. With Yasiel Puig (OF, LA) and Carl Crawford (OF, LA) each holding down starting spots, there are a number of names to consider entering spring training. Joc Pederson (OF, LA) and Andre Ethier (OF, LA) are likely the main candidates for the CF job, while Scott Van Slyke (OF, LA) and Chris Heisey (OF, LA) also deserve mention as viable options. How do their skills stack up? (2015 projections shown).
Player AB ct% xBA PX Spd BPV MM Code ========= === === ==== === === === ======== Pederson 296 66 .214 112 102 12 3303 ADC Ethier 244 78 .264 98 115 50 2133 ABB Heisey 195 77 .234 100 104 35 3411 BDA Van Slyke 214 69 .252 161 101 57 5221 ADD
Pederson is currently projected for the most playing time, though he carries plenty of short-term risk. The 23-year-old earned a 9C prospect rating and a spot in the top-10 in BaseballHQ.com's recent HQ 100. He's coming off a 30/30 season in the Pacific Coast League with plenty of long-term upside, however, issues with a low contact rate and lack of MLB experience (just 28 AB) suggest we temper expectations for 2015. Pederson's CF defense is another nod in his favor, but if he doesn't break camp with a starting job, he'll likely be sent back down to AAA-Oklahoma City for more seasoning.
Ethier has long been a stable cog in LA's outfield, but his playing time dwindled in 2014. Ethier's 39 BPV in 2014 was the lowest of his nine-year career, and his xBA dipped below .260 for the first time as well. His struggles vs. LHP (career 76% ct, 84 PX) likely prevent him from an everyday role, but all indications are he'll be given a shot to compete with Pederson at CF. He'll need to rekindle the power he displayed earlier in his career if he wants to produce reasonable fantasy value, however.
Heisey and Van Slyke are both likely headed for reserve roles. Van Slyke possesses considerable power potential, especially against LHP (184 career PX vs. LHP in 198 AB). He remains a solid daily play against southpaws when in the lineup, but his poor ct% and vulnerability against RHP should restrict him to part-time duty. Heisey was acquired by the team earlier this offseason, and while he has a decent power / speed combination, he's yet to eclipse a .250 xBA in his career. He'll likely be on the outside looking in for regular playing time.
Arizona's biggest splash in the free agent market was the signing of Yasmany Tomás (OF, ARI) to a six-year, $68.5 million contract in November. The 24-year-old Tomas has considerable power potential and is projected for a 125 PX and 12% hr/f. While Tomas is an intriguing speculation given the success of fellow Cuban imports in recent seasons, his playing time situation is somewhat in flux entering 2015.
Reports out of Arizona indicate Tomas will be given a shot at 3B this spring. Tomas' position uncertainty presents a catch-22 for fantasy owners. If he can stick at 3B, he should offer plenty of power from an infield spot, however, this may require more minor league seasoning and delay his debut. Tomas' quickest path to MLB playing time would likely be via the outfield, but Arizona already has plenty of other options in the mix. Getting Tomas' bat in the lineup will be a priority for Arizona in 2015, but his primary position, and MLB debut date, remain uncertain entering camp.
The departure of Miguel Montero (C, CHC) has opened up a full season of AB at the catcher spot, but the in-house options are ugly. Tuffy Gosewisch (C, ARI) currently stands as the top catcher, but his meager skills in 2014 (0.13 Eye, 58 xPX in 129 AB) make him unrosterable from a fantasy standpoint. Arizona has been rumored to be involved with external options such as Welington Castillo (C, CHC) and Dioner Navarro (C, TOR), though the team has publicly announced they will not make a move. The club believes Peter O'Brien (C/1B, ARI) can be their primary backstop as soon as 2015, though many scouting reports on O'Brien question whether he can stick defensively. O'Brien owns an 8D prospect rating from BaseballHQ.com thanks to his bat, so while he's an attractive keeper target, odds are slim for short-term production behind the dish.
With much of their payroll tied up in major contracts, Colorado has stayed rather quiet this offseason. However, the seemingly minor signing of Nick Hundley (C, COL) will likely have major playing time, and fantasy, implications entering 2015. Hundley's signing is certainly bad news for Wilin Rosario (C, COL), who has been a defensive liability behind the dish over the past few seasons. The team has insisted that they want to keep Rosario, but he may not have a position.
At catcher, Rosario figures to be squarely behind Hundley on the depth chart. Stepping in at 1B would be the next logical step, however, Justin Morneau (1B, COL) is coming off an excellent season in 2014. Morneau does struggle against lefties with just a .579 OPS vs. against them over the last three seasons, so there's potential for spotty playing time for Rosario against southpaws. Outfield could be another option, but there are plenty of bodies ahead of him in the pecking order, and his defense would remain a liability there as well.
Without much room for Rosario on Colorado's roster, a trade would seem to be the most logical move here. While this would result in a more stable playing time situation, Rosario would certainly suffer from a move away from Coors Field (+24% RHB HR). As it stands, the signing of Hundley should knock Rosario down a few rungs on the pre-season catcher ladder.
San Diego's blockbuster additions this offseason have resulted in a nearly complete overhaul of their offense, but it's the rotation that has the most playing time uncertainty heading into spring training. The club has a solid foundation of Tyson Ross (RHP, SD), Ian Kennedy (RHP, SD), and Andrew Cashner (RHP, SD) at the top, but the final two spots are worth exploring.
Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP, SD) and Robert Erlin (LHP, SD) are currently projected for the most playing time by BaseballHQ.com at the back end of the rotation, but both come with risks of their own. Despaigne posted an impressive 3.36 ERA in his rookie debut in 2014, though a 2.0 Cmd, 3.88 xERA, and 59 BPV suggest we won't see that again moving forward. Erlin had a 93 BPV through 48 IP in 2014 before being placed on the DL (elbow) last May. A weak September finish (7/4 K/BB, 4.46 xERA in 14 IP) means he'll have to prove he's fully healthy before he can be a late-round target.
Other options include Josh Johnson (RHP, SD), who fell victim to Tommy John surgery last April. His rehab will likely carry over into the season, and he hasn't posted a triple-digit BPV since 2010. The club also signed Brandon Morrow (RHP, SD) to a one-year deal this offseason, but like Johnson, his once-exciting skill set has been derailed by a myriad of injuries in recent seasons. Both Morrow and Johnson are both huge risks that likely don't warrant an endgame bid unless they show promising signs this spring.
Matthew Wisler (RHP, SD) is an intriguing speculation at end of the rotation. Wisler was ranked the top prospect in SD's system by BaseballHQ.com with an 8B prospect rating. The 22-year-old pitched most of 2014 at AAA-El Paso, where he put up a 5.01 ERA and 2.8 Cmd. Wisler has the tools to be a solid starter down the line, and while we may not see him until mid-season, Wisler could be worth targeting with a strong spring performance.
The re-signing of Jake Peavy (RHP, SF) provides some stability to a San Francisco rotation that has several question marks entering 2015. Recent reports on Matt Cain's (RHP, SF) rehab (elbow) have been positive, though we won't get a clear indication until he starts pitching in live games. Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) is also reportedly headed back to the rotation after being demoted to the bullpen at the end of 2014. Cain's health, Lincecum's well-documented struggles, and Tim Hudson's (RHP, SF) offseason ankle surgery present plenty of uncertainty for the club entering spring training.
However, if all holds up, Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, SF) figures to be the odd man out yet again. Petit posted elite skills in a hybrid role for the team last season (6.0 Cmd, 3.03 xERA, 152 BPV), which included an impressive September finish in the rotation (178 BPV in five starts). When—not if—there's an opening in SF's rotation, expect Petit to step in and succeed. He's definitely worth a late stash in deep leagues.
San Francisco decided to bring back former closer Sergio Romo (RHP, SF) by signing him to a two-year, $15-million deal this offseason. Romo, who lost his closing job to Santiago Casilla (RHP, SF) in 2014, figures to be in the mix again in what should be a good competition for saves. Romo's 3.72 ERA in 2014 was fueled by a nasty 25/67% H%/S% and 13% hr/f. His skills were as good as ever—he posted his sixth straight 120+ BPV. Casilla enjoyed a career year (1.70 ERA, 0.86 WHIP in 54 IP), and while his skills weren't as strong as Romo's, Casillia has put up a sub-3.00 ERA every season since 2009. BaseballHQ.com currently has the saves battle tied at 50/50, and the club hasn't hinted at a frontrunner at this point. Romo has the skills edge in his favor, but this will be a battle worth watching as fantasy owners scour for saves.
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