(*) PT TOMORROW: NL West—Vogelsong in trouble?
May 1 2014
It's been a rough start at the back of the rotation for Ryan Vogelsong (RHP, SF). Vogelsong has a PQS streak of 0-3-3-0-5 through his first five starts to go along with a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP (23 innings). The skills don't really point to much optimism either (1.7 Cmd, 4.99 xERA, 20 BPV). The slow start comes off the heels of a disappointing 2013 season where he put up a 5.73 ERA and 5 BPV, so it would make sense for San Francisco to start considering other options.
Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, SF) looks to be the only real alternative currently on SF's roster. He started seven games for the club in 2013 and is off to a fantastic start this year in a long relief role. Through 15 innings (eight games), Petit has an excellent 16/4 K/BB and 136 BPV. Petit hasn't traditionally been known as a strikeout pitcher (7.3 career Dom) and his normally-high FB% may cause some HR trouble, but Petit is showing signs that he could be an effective cog at the back of SF's rotation should the team decide to bump Vogelsong.
The club could also look to the minors for some help here. Edwin Escobar (LHP, SF) has a 28/6 K/BB through 24 innings at AAA-Fresno. Escobar was ranked as the #2 prospect in the organization by BaseballHQ.com behind Kyle Crick (RHP, SF). Crick is struggling with his command at AA-Richmond with 14 walks through his first 12 innings, so he's a longshot this early in the season. Other hot starters include Jason Berken (RHP, SF) and Chris Heston (RHP, SF) at AAA-Fresno, but neither of these two cracked the organization's top-15 this offseason. It's highly likely that Petit would be the next man up in this situation.
Entering the season, LaTroy Hawkins (RHP,COL) and Rex Brothers (LHP, COL) were thought to have been in a close battle for the closer spot. Hawkins has excelled in the role thus far with nine saves and three ER through 11 IP, but the best pitcher in the bullpen right now might actually be Adam Ottavino (RHP, COL).
Ottavino, who is 28 and in his third full MLB season, posted an impressive 2.64 ERA in 2013. A 2.5 Cmd and 7% hr/f didn't fully believe in that success, but his skills have taken off so far in 2014. Given a small sample of 12 innings, has an excellent 15/2 K/BB with only one earned run and a 181 BPV to date.
Brothers' skills haven't been impressive through his first 11 innings as he's already walked nine batters. His surface stats have been propped up by an amazing 8% H%. Brothers is supposed to be the backup to Hawkins, but his struggles under the hood indicate this could be in peril. If Brothers' extreme luck balances out, it wouldn't be surprising to see Ottavino get some higher leverage situations, and even consideration for saves down the line. Ottavino is a fine add right now in holds leagues, and certainly one to keep tabs on as a speculative saves option.
The heavy usage of Kenley Jansen (RHP, LA) has been a hot topic in LA recently, which has prompted some to speculate he could be in trouble as the season goes on. Jansen has already made 16 appearances through the team's first 26 games, though it's noteworthy that he's only eclipsed 20 pitches in three of those outings. Jansen's core skills haven't suffered at all with an electric 16.7 Dom and 233 BPV. A nasty 51/84% H%/S% has wreaked havoc with his surface stats (3.21 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), and his average fastball velocity is actually up from career averages. However, manager Don Mattingly has noted that he's a bit concerned about the early usage of Jansen, so who would be next in line to get saves if LA starts to scale back Jansen's usage?
BaseballHQ.com's Bullpen Indicators, which include Leverage Index (LI), highlights three main targets: J.P. Howell (LHP, LA) (1.38 LI), Chris Perez (RHP, LA) (1.23), and Brian Wilson (RHP, LA) (1.12). Wilson and Perez have the most closing experience, though Wilson has struggled mightily this season with a 4/6 K/BB in just five innings, and he's missed time due to an elbow injury earlier this season. Given Wilson's struggles, Perez could be next in line as he's given up just two runs through 12 innings thus far.
Howell could be a decent option as well since Perez isn't exactly a model for good health either. Howell doesn't have excellent stuff as shown by sub-8.0 Dom each year since 2011, though his excellent GB% and 86 BPV in 2013 indicate he could fill in effectively in a pinch. The variety of options, as well as Howell's left-handedness, means that LA could likely play the matchups if trying to spell Jansen.
The Arizona rotation, like many other parts of the team, has been off to a terrible start this season. This prompted some early-season rotation shuffling, which brought Michael Bolsinger (RHP, ARI) into the fold. Bolsinger has now made three starts with a PQS string of 0-5-3. He's been able to generate 19 Ks in 19 IP, though a 42/66% H%/S% hasn't helped his surface stats (10 ER, 1.66 WHIP). Despite some optimism from a skills perspective, Bolsinger may be one of the first starters out should the club decide to shake things up.
It's somehow worth noting that Randy Wolf (LHP, ARI) is off to a solid start at AAA-Reno. He's made five starts in the offensive-minded Pacific Coast League, posting a 3.63 ERA and 21/10 K/BB through 22.1 IP thus far. Wolf was acquired by Arizona in April as a fallback option given the struggles the starting rotation has had this season. He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2012, where he posted some pretty awful skills (5.9 Dom, 4.64 xERA, -32 BPV). Given that Wolf is 37 years old, there isn't much hope for improvement at this point. He could crack Arizona's starting rotation—especially with top prospect Archie Bradley (RHP, ARI) on the DL—but he should be avoided from a fantasy perspective.
The starting OF in San Diego is almost back to full strength—for now. Cameron Maybin (OF, SD) returned earlier in the week from a biceps injury sustained this spring. Maybin will man CF on an everyday basis for as long as he can stay in the lineup. Carlos Quentin (OF, SD) (knee) is also scheduled to begin a rehab assignment, which would put his return to the Friars somewhat soon. Both Maybin and Quentin have "F" health grades, so another injury to one (or both) could come at any time, but they will both be fixtures in the starting lineup when healthy alongside Will Venable (OF, SD).
The main PT losers when Quentin returns will be Chris Denorfia (OF, SD) and Seth Smith (OF, SD). The two had platooned throughout the start of the season until Smith was recently sidelined with a groin strain. Smith had been off to a decent start from a skills perspective with a 0.83 Eye and 138 xPX through 65 ABs, though that's only equated to a .277 BA with two HR on the surface. Denorfia has had even better results with a .317 BA (.300 xBA) with an 88% ct% and five steals through 82 AB.
Denorfia's hot start may give him an edge over Smith if Quentin or Maybin get hurt again, but the two will likely continue to be used in a platoon role should an opportunity present itself.
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