(*) PT TOMORROW: NL West—Mejia looks to take the next step

San Diego Padres

Despite rumored attempts to upgrade at the position this offseason, the team’s catching situation looks much the same as it did at the end of last year, with switch-hitting Francisco Mejía (C, SD) pairing with the more defensive-minded Austin Hedges (C, SD) behind the plate.

It’s something of a make-or-break year for Mejia. Acquired from the Indians in a mid-season 2018 trade, Mejia continues to come under scrutiny for his defensive shortcomings as a blocker/framer, and his plate skills (5% bb%, 0.26 Eye) have yet to really take a step forward—as evidenced by the fact that he chased pitches outside the strike zone at alarming 48% rate (league average = 31.6%). New manager Jayce Tingler recently discussed the need for Mejia to be more selective and find pitches he can drive, which has been a common refrain for all Padres hitters, who as a group ranked 26th in the majors with a .308 OBP last season.

Mejia seemed to make some strides in the second half (.295 BA, 6 HR in 149 AB), but that came on a .237 xBA and 4 xHR. His power metrics (98 xPX, 100 HctX) did improve over that stretch, however, as did his 77% ct%. Once a top catching prospect and still shy of 300 career MLB at-bats, there is certainly room for him to take a step forward.

For Hedges, his elite work behind the plate should ensure a healthy dose of playing time, but his offensive profile pretty much is what it is at this point—which isn’t meant as a compliment. Now with over 1,000 at-bats at the MLB level, the 27-year-old owns a career .201/.257/.360 line, and actually took a step backward last year when he hit .176 (.200 xBA), 11 HR (10 xHR) in 312 AB. His contact rate (65%) tumbled to a new low, while his once-promising power metrics (71 HctX, 89 xPX) came in below league average.

Down on the farm, one name to monitor is 21-year-old Luis Campusano (C, SD), the team’s #5 prospect and owner of an 8C rating in the 2020 Minor League Baseball Analyst. Campusano still has improvements to make on the defensive front, but he’s shown impressive bat speed and a natural feel for hitting, thriving last year in Single-A with a .325/.396/.509 line and 15 HR in 422 at-bats. Expect him to begin the year at Double-A and push for an MLB debut sometime in 2021 if all goes well.
 

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Arizona Diamondbacks

After biding his time behind other, more established first basemen in previous years, Christian Walker (1B, ARI) finally got his shot at full-time at-bats in 2019, and certainly made the most of his opportunity—slashing .259/.348/.476 across 603 AB, with his 29 HR coming 34 xHR. While his xPX did fall off in the 2H (148 vs. 105), it’s encouraging that he was able to improve both his bb% (9% vs. 14%) and ct% (69% vs. 73%) with increased exposure to MLB pitching. The 29-year old is currently expected to slot in near the heart of the order, and should even chip in a few steals (89% SB%), even if he's not quite able to match the 8 SB total he surprised with last season.

Should Walker struggle, the team could consider giving Jake Lamb (1B/3B, ARI) looks against RHP. Lamb has missed sizable chunks of the 2018 (shoulder) and 2019 (quad) seasons, and when healthy managed to hit a mere .208 with 12 HR across those 394 at-bats. It’s worth noting though that his 170 xPX and 129 HctX last year were both well above league average, and his powerful 2017 (.248 BA, 30 HR, 105 RBI) isn’t too far in the rearview mirror just yet.

Right-handed Kevin Cron (1B, ARI) is another power bat that could make the case for 1B at-bats as well. Cron feasted on Triple-A pitching, hitting .331 with 38 HR and 105 RBI in just 82 games, improving both his bb% and k% in his second year at that level. The 61% ct% he showed in 71 MLB at-bats leaves much to be desired, but the 151 xPX and 6 HR suggest the power is for real.

Another to keep an eye on is Seth Beer (1B, ARI), who came over from the Astros at last year’s trade deadline. Beer received a 7A rating in the 2020 Minor League Baseball Analyst, where it was noted that he has plenty of loft to his swing with the “upside of 35-40 HR over a full season with solid-average walk rates.” His defensive limitations will work against him in his quest for playing time, but expect him to work his way into the MLB lineup at some point this season.

 

San Francisco Giants

Assessing the Giants outfield playing time situation this year figures to be an adventure, with what currently projects as a number of platoon situations and rotating parts, many of whom lack the standout skills necessary to take the role and provide fantasy value on a full-time basis.

One such player is Alex Dickerson (OF, SF), a lefty bat acquired from the Padres last June. Dickerson has struggled mightily with injuries throughout his career—and last year was no different, derailed this time by an oblique injury in early August that really dampened his production over the final two months. Prior to that, Dickerson flashed plenty of spark while working his way toward the middle of the Giants order, hitting .386 BA (44% h%) with 6 HR, 22 Runs, 23 RBI and 1 SB in 88 AB between June and July. He’s flashed intriguing power/speed upside before (10 HR, 5 SB in 253 AB with SD), albeit a few years ago at this point. Nonetheless, his power (108 xPX) and plate skills (7% bb%, 76% ct%) are good enough to warrant an extended look (health permitting), especially against RHP.

Also in the mix is 36-year-old Hunter Pence (OF, SF), who reunites with the Giants after spending a year with the Rangers. Pence enjoyed a resurgent 2019, overhauling his swing and hitting .297 (.278 xBA) with 18 HR, 59 RBI and 6 SB in 286 at-bats before ultimately having his season cut short by a back injury. His PX/xPX gap (133/106) suggests he overperformed in the power department, but jumping his FB% up to 36%—after four straight seasons below 30%—is a change worth noting, and to provide that power while not sacrificing his plate skills (8% bb%, 76%) instills hope that he can provide a boost to the Giants lineup in 2020.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s been a bit of a ride for closer Kenley Jansen (RHP, LA), at least ADP-wise, consistently going in the Top 75 picks during 2019 drafts, then falling out of favor early this offseason (132 ADP prior to Jan. 1) only to find his name surging up draft boards (ADP = 112 since March 1) as many gear up for their important drafts. Much of this surge, no doubt, is due to the improved velocity (92-94 mph) he’s shown this spring, along with the fact that he worked with the folks at Driveline this offseason.

Despite a career-high 3.71 ERA last year, Jansen still generated swinging strikes at an impressive 16% clip, maintained a top-shelf 68% FpK, all while amassing over 30 saves for the sixth straight year. Given the team context and offseason developments, Jansen is on a short list of closers capable of finishing the season as a Top 5 closer.

Behind Jansen, expect Pedro Báez (RHP, LA), Joe Kelly (RHP, LA), and newcomer Blake Treinen (RHP, LA) to log quite a bit of high-leverage work. Perhaps the most interesting of these names is Treinen, who is only a year removed from being the #2 closer off the board, with struggles last year (4.91 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) coming in a year where he experienced shoulder, elbow, and back issues. As noted in the 2020 Baseball Forecaster, his body of work prior to his breakout 2018 was hardly a model of consistency, and a 58% FpK doesn’t suggest his career 4.2 Ctl is much of a fluke.

21-year-old Brusdar Graterol (RHP, LA), acquired this offseason from the Twins, owns a plus fastball (99 mph) and slider, with a decent change-up. Across three MiLB levels last year (61 IP), Graterol pitched to a 1.92 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 61/23 K/BB (2.7 Cmd) before a brief September debut with the Twins. There are some durability concerns with the 6’1”, 265 lb righty though, as he’s missed time with back spasms and a shoulder injury in recent years. Otherwise, it’s not difficult to see him carving out a high-leverage role as the season progresses.

 

Colorado Rockies

Coming off a 2019 in which they combined for an NL-worst 5.58 ERA, the Rockies rotation will look to improve in 2020 with much the same cast as last year.

Jon Gray (RHP, COL) and Germán Márquez (RHP, COL) are the most viable for fantasy purposes, with the caveat that each may be less desirable for starts at Coors Field. Gray, 28, has actually posted sub-4.00 ERAs in two of the past three seasons, with a 3.84 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (1.33 xWHIP), and 9.0 Dom across 150 IP last year. The return of his velocity (96.1mph) after a down 2018 (94.8mph)—along with career-best results on his slider (33% usage, 21% SwK) and offseason foot surgery for an injury that has apparently bothered him since 2017—inspires hope for another solid year.

Marquez, meanwhile, failed to live up to the lofty expectations set by his outstanding second half of 2018 (2.57 ERA, 11.7 Dom in 105 IP), finishing with a 4.76 ERA (3.69 xERA), 1.20 WHIP (1.16 xWHIP), and 175 strikeouts before being shut down in August due to arm fatigue. Interestingly enough, Marquez’s component skills (13% SwK, 33% Ball%, 49% GB%) weren’t all that different from 2018, with downturns in the strand rate (65%) and HR/F (20%) departments contributing to the overall decline in surface numbers. His ability to work deep into games (lasting at least 6 IP in 19 of his 28 starts) makes him more appealing in QS leagues, as well as giving him more opportunities for Wins in standard 5x5 formats.

After a $20 season in 2018 (17 Wins, 2.85 ERA), left-hander Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL) was absolutely dreadful in 2019, posting a 6.73 ERA (5.30 xERA) and 1.58 WHIP across 104 MLB innings. To the extent there are any positive takeaways, the fact that he held steady in SwK (10%), FpK (63%), and GB% (47%) are at least mildly encouraging. Less encouraging was the jump in HR/F (from 8% to 22%) and struggles versus righties (938 OPS allowed). He’s been working on his curveball and change-up this spring, and despite exiting a start a couple weeks ago with back spasms, seems primed to fill that third spot in the Opening Day rotation.

Check back next week for the back-end options and possible arms that could pop up throughout the season.

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