(*) PT TOMORROW: NL West—A new 3B by the Bay?
May 14 2015
Matt Cain (RHP, SF) is still far off from a return to San Francisco's rotation, which means Chris Heston (RHP, SF) will continue to get a prolonged look. Heston has used an elite GB% to get to a sparkling 2.91 ERA through seven starts. His 3.9 Cmd looks great as well, but a 56% FpK doubts his 1.9 Ctl will hold much longer. Heston recently spun a 10-K, PQS-5 against HOU on May 12, and he'll pitch well enough to stick in the rotation in the short-term while Cain is on the mend. The rotation stay might be extended if he can keep up the triple-digit BPV.
Casey McGehee (3B, SF) continues to struggle mightily with the bat so far, as he's hitting just .179 through 84 AB. McGehee hit just our HR over 616 AB last season with a measly 57 PX. The subpar power has carried over into 2015 as well, and his .234 xBA doubts there's major improvement on the horizon.
Matt Duffy (3B, SF) (pictured) has received more playing time recently thanks to McGehee's struggles. Duffy, who was given a 7C prospect rating earlier this season, is hitting a reasonable .300 through 70 AB and is essentially in a job-share with McGehee at the hot corner. As a prospect, Duffy was known for a solid plate approach, but that hasn't translated over to the majors quite yet (5% bb%, 79% ct%). His 20 BPV so far in 2015 suggests we temper hopes for a breakout, even if Duffy becomes an everyday fixture in the lineup.
Randall Delgado (RHP, ARI) is quietly having a solid start to the season in Arizona's bullpen. The 25-year-old Delgado, who was bumped from the starting rotation last season, has an impressive 14/4 K/BB through 16 innings, and the gains are backed by a strong combination of 13% SwK and 64% FpK. Delgado has also kept the ball on the ground with a 50%+ GB% in the early going. It's certainly possible that Delgado could be a factor in the rotation at some point this season, and his 48-pitch performance against San Diego on May 9 suggests the team is willing to let him rack up higher pitch counts. Continued success from Delgado as the team's long man could earn him a rotation spot should injury or ineffectiveness plague the starting rotation.
The utter futility behind the dish in Arizona previously led us to speculate that the club might look for external options to fill the void—specifically in the form of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C, ARI). Saltalamacchia was indeed signed by Arizona last week, and he'll get some reps at AAA-Reno. Given the complete lack of production from Tuffy Gosewisch (C, ARI) and Jordan Pacheco (C, ARI)—BPVs of -1and -19, respectively—it's fair to assume that Saltalamacchia will be up soon.
Saltalamacchia went just 2 for 29 with Miami, which led to his release, but his power upside at Chase Field (+17%/+9% LHB/RHB HR) makes him an attractive deep-league target. He's posted a 145+ xPX in each season from 2011-14 despite a mid-60s ct% that highlights the BA risk, but he could provide a much-needed HR boost in two-catcher leagues.
At this point, Colorado is looking for anyone with a glimmer of upside to join the rotation. He's a long shot, but Yohan Flande (LHP, COL) is dominating AA-New Britain with a 30/4 K/BB in 39.2 innings of work. Flande, 29, is much older than his most of his Eastern League competition, but the club's MLB-worst 5.47 ERA from the starting rotation suggests he may get a call. Flande tossed 59 innings with Colorado in 2014, and while his 5.19 ERA was nothing impressive, the underlying skills weren't as bad (3.63 xERA, 58% GB%, 63 BPV). He's a deep-league flyer at best, but his strong Double-A performance has Flande on Colorado's radar.
Don't look now, but Nick Hundley (C, COL) is taking kindly to his new home at Coors Field. Hundley was largely an afterthought entering 2015 drafts thanks to BPVs of -13, 29, and -9 in his last three seasons. But he's hitting .342 through his first 79 AB thanks to a nice boost in contact rate. The power has been there as well (110 PX / 106 xPX), and the overall skill gains are reflected in his 57 BPV to date. Meanwhile, backup Michael McKenry (C, COL), who many thought might supplant Hundley as the everyday catcher, has struggled mightily (68% ct%, 13 BPV in 28 AB). Given Hundley's early-season surge, it looks like he'll continue to have a firm grasp on the starting gig behind the dish at Coors Field.
The back end of LA's rotation remains a revolving door thanks to Tommy John surgery for Brandon McCarthy (RHP, LA) and an early-season shoulder injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP, LA).
Carlos Frias (RHP, LA) has stepped up as the fourth starter, and he's tossed a pair of PQS-3 outings in his first two starts this season. Frias posted a 6.12 ERA in limited action (32 innings) with LA last year, but his underlying 3.42 xERA and 123 BPV say he deserved a much better fate. Frias, however, was given just a 6C prospect rating upon his call-up. His long-term upside may be limited, but an 11/3 K/BB and mid-90s fastball make him worth monitoring if he keeps getting the call.
Mike Bolsinger (RHP, LA) was called up to start on Tuesday, May 12 as the team's fifth starter, and he's fared well with just one earned run in each of his two starts. Bolsinger put up some decent underlying skills with Arizona in 2014 (2.8 Cmd, 52% GB%, 100 BPV), though they were hidden by an ugly 5.50 surface ERA. Those skills alone are worth a stash in deeper leagues, especially if he sticks in LA's rotation.
Joe Wieland (RHP, LA) was called up for a spot start on May 6 against Milwaukee, but he gave up six runs and four walks and was promptly sent back down to the minor leagues. Wieland has missed significant time since Tommy John surgery in 2012, though his impressive 23/3 K/BB in 24 innings in Triple-A hints that he could be given another shot if Frias or Bolsinger falter.
A longer-term possibility to enter LA's rotation is Zach Lee (RHP, LA). Lee, 23, was once a premier minor league prospect who has faded a bit recently due to some poor command (1.8 Cmd in Triple-A, 2014). The early returns have been more favorable this year, however, as Lee has a 29/11 K/BB and 2.38 ERA through 34 IP at AAA-Oklahoma City. It remains to be seen if LA would prefer to look externally and let Lee continue to develop in the minors, but continued success could result in a mid-summer call-up.
A deep shoulder bruise to Yonder Alonso (1B, SD) has shuffled San Diego's lineup in recent games. We noted earlier this season that Wil Myers (OF, SD) was taking some grounders at 1B, and Myers appears to be the team's top choice to backfill Alonso, though Yangervis Solarte (3B, SD) has seen some time there as well. Myers is off to a great start at the plate, as a noticeable ct% jump (81% in 2015; 72% in 2013) has been a driver behind his .291 BA. Myers will likely gain 1B eligibility as part of the Alonso injury, which further boosts his short-term value.
Will Venable (OF, SD) has been the beneficiary of Myers' temporary move to the infield, as he's appeared in five games over the past week. Venable's production cratered in 2013 (.224 BA, eight HR in 406 AB), but a long history of solid power skills suggests he could provide a short-term HR boost in deeper leagues—he already has three HR in his first 42 AB this season.
The highest BPV through May 12 in San Diego's bullpen doesn't belong to Craig Kimbrel (RHP, SD) or Joaquín Benoit (RHP, SD)—it's Kevin Quackenbush (RHP, SD). Quackenbush didn't make the team out of spring training, but he's been dominant since he was called up on April 24. Quackenbush has an 11/3 K/BB through 10 innings of work, and the impressive start comes on the heels some solid 2014 skills: 9.3 Dom, 3.40 xERA, 101 BPV. Quackenbush could start appearing in more high-leverage situations if he continues to dominate in relief.
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