(*) PT TOMORROW: NL West—Is it Seager time?
Jul 23 2015
Though he's been a fixture in LA's lineup all season, Jimmy Rollins (SS, LA) has put up very little production with the bat for his fantasy owners. The 36-year-old Rollins, who flashed an impressive 17 HR / 28 SB campaign just one year ago, is hitting just .204 with a .259 OBP through 329 AB—both of which would be career-lows for the one-time MVP. Rollins was a recent Facts/Flukes subject, where our own Jeff Tomich noted that much of the BA drop can be pinned on an abnormally low 22% h% rather than deteriorating plate skills (84% ct%, 0.47 Eye). Rollins' .244 xBA and cratering speed game (85 Spd, 50% SB%) offer little hope for a significant BA rebound, however, and it may put his starting job in jeopardy as LA pushes towards the playoffs.
Should LA decide to make a change, Enrique Hernandez (IF, LA) would be the most likely choice from the current roster. Hernandez has already appeared in 13 games at the position this year, and his small-sample skills (.279 xBA, 134 PX, 131 Spd) hint at some deep-league upside. Hernandez's 75% ct% has dipped considerably from 2014's 83% mark, but a jump in his hard-hit ball rate (25% in 2014; 35% in 2015) has kept things afloat. It remains to be seen if LA views Hernandez as an everyday option at SS, but he's flashing the skills to be useful down the stretch.
Another option could involve sliding current third baseman Justin Turner (3B, LA) over to shortstop. The versatile Turner played 15 games at SS in 2014 and he's been one of the team's best hitters this year with a .322 BA and 12 HR. Such a move would likely hinge on the club's confidence in Hector Olivera (3B, LA), though he's been slowed by a hamstring injury in the minors and hasn't played since July 13.
Enter Corey Seager (SS, LA; pictured above). Seager topped our mid-season Top 50 prospect list earlier this month, and a 2015 call-up seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. The 21-year-old Seager is hitting .305/.351/.512 over 338 AB across Double-A and Triple-A this season with an .863 OPS and 13 HR. As with all prospects, Seager is no guarantee to make an immediate impact—especially at such a young age—but he'd likely present an instant upgrade over Rollins' current level of performance. We could easily see Seager up before this year's trade deadline if Rollins' struggles persist.
We've had a week of games to get a feel for how Arizona's outfield picture might shake out, as the return of Ender Inciarte (OF, ARI) from the DL has left four players to battle for three spots. In our July 18 PT Today column, analyst Rob Carroll hinted that Inciarte's role might be reduced thanks to the recent success of David Peralta (OF, ARI). Early returns suggest that will be the case.
Since Inciarte's return, All-Star A.J. Pollock (OF, ARI) has started all but one game, which should continue given his excellent season with the bat (.302 BA, 11 HR, 20 SB) and top-notch defense in center field.
The remaining trio of Inciarte, David Peralta (OF, ARI), and Yasmany Tomás (3B/OF, ARI) will likely rotate through the remaining two OF spots. Peralta has displayed the best skills of the three this season with an improved plate approach (10% bb%, 116 HctX) and impressive power (147 PX / 142 xPX). His .290 xBA suggests he can keep this up, and he's flashed enough speed to be a minor SB threat. He's also made strides against left-handed pitching this season, but Peralta will likely hit the pine against southpaws in this current configuration. In 126 career AB against lefties, Peralta has just a 71% ct%, .587 OPS, and 74 PX.
Tomas is hitting an impressive .303 on the surface in his rookie season, but that's been helped by a fortunate 38% h%. His power metrics have improved in recent months with a 100+ PX in both June and July, though his overall BPIs (.262 xBA, 93 PX, 20 BPV) suggest there are more bumps in the road ahead.
The underlying skills would tilt towards Peralta, Inciarte, and Pollock as the starting OF on most days. However, Tomas' surface BA, contract, and need for more MLB exposure will keep him in the regular lineup as well. Don't expect everyday playing time from any Arizona OF other than Pollock in the short-term, and Peralta is likely to see fewer AB vs. lefties moving forward.
Colorado is currently sporting a four-man rotation after Chad Bettis (RHP, COL) hit the DL with elbow inflammation. Bettis, who started the season with a 2.96 ERA through four May starts, has struggled recently with 16 ER in his last three outings. His recent slowdown has fallen in line with the rest of the rotation's lackluster results. Only one starter on the team, the injured David Hale (RHP, COL), has a 70+ BPV and every starter has an ERA above 4.00. Despite the solid skills, Hale's 5.69 ERA puts his rotation spot on shaky ground when he returns to the club. Kyle Kendrick (RHP, COL) has had similarly poor results (5.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) with little support from his underlying skills (1.9 Cmd, 4.83 xERA, 34 BPV).
The mounting injuries and the general ineffectiveness of Colorado's rotation have again sparked chatter of a potential Jon Gray (RHP, COL) call-up. Gray, the team's top prospect, has pitched well of late at AAA-Albuquerque with a 30/9 K/BB over his last four starts and a 3.26 ERA over his last 10. Gray's promotion has likely entered "when, not if" territory, though the club would like to see better pitch efficiency from Gray before deeming him ready for the MLB level. His long-term potential is undoubtedly bright, but expect some bumps in the road given his home park and lack of exposure to MLB hitting in the short-term.
Gray's former teammate in Albuquerque, Eddie Butler (RHP, COL) hasn't had the same success as Gray in recent outings despite being called up to Colorado last week. Since Butler's first demotion to Triple-A in June, he's put up just a 22/16 K/BB with a 6.27 ERA in six starts. His subpar numbers—even for the Pacific Coast League—raise several doubts that he can improve upon his MLB performance from earlier this season (5.21 xERA, -19 BPV in 54 IP). As of now, Butler should be avoided in all but the deepest of formats.
Last week in this space, we speculated on San Diego selling at the trade deadline and what the effects may be on their outfield. Though the team has since won five games in the past week, they are still six games out of the Wild Card. We'll perform the same exercise for their starting rotation this week, which has been fairly stable most of the season.
Rumors have swirled that James Shields (RHP, SD) would be available if the club decides to sell, and his skills (10.1 Dom, 3.31 xERA, 118 BPV) would be a welcome addition to any contender. Andrew Cashner (RHP, SD) and Ian Kennedy (RHP, SD) could conceivably be dealt as well. Trading any of these starters would open up some opportunities, but is there any talent available to backfill the rotation?
Robbie Erlin (LHP, SD) stands out as a likely rotation option at AAA-El Paso. Though he has a 6.19 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Erlin has been able to stay healthy all season and put up an 8.0 Dom and 2.8 Cmd. Erlin has also had the most MLB success in San Diego's system as he posted a 3.93 xERA and 81 BPV over 61 innings with SD in 2014. He's worth an NL-only stash for pitching-starved owners trying to get a jump on the trade deadline.
Brandon Morrow (RHP, SD) is also lingering as he recently threw a simulated game and is ready to begin a rehab assignment. Morrow has been sidelined since early May with shoulder inflammation, and while his 2.73 ERA and 86 BPV over five starts early this season may be intriguing, the injury risk is extremely high. If Morrow makes it through his rehab assignment unscathed, he'd still most likely be first in line.
A long shot name to watch for here could be Colin Rea (RHP, SD). Rea dominated Double-A this season with a 60/11 K/BB and 1.08 ERA over 75 innings. Rea closed out this year's Futures Game, but he's struggled in three starts at AAA-El Paso with seven ER and a 9/10 K/BB. The 25-year-old was left off most top prospect lists within the organization entering the season, but his breakout campaign could result in some MLB time if there's a yard sale at the MLB level—especially if he can patch together a few productive outings in Triple-A.
The upcoming return of Norichika Aoki (OF, SF) means there will finally be a fully healthy outfield in San Francisco. While conventional wisdom might say that Aoki will join Hunter Pence (OF, SF) and Angel Pagan (OF, SF) as the starting core, that may not necessarily be the case.
Pagan is in the midst of his worst season in quite some time with just a .301 OBP, zero HR, and a handful of SB thus far. His HctX and xBA are both career lows and he's been stagnant on the basepaths (7% SBO). Several SF observers have noted that he's lost a step in the outfield, which calls into question his shaky health history as well. Pagan has long been the starting CF when healthy, but manager Bruce Bochy may have to rethink that situation the remainder of the way.
The success of Grégor Blanco (OF, SF) could certainly play a factor once Aoki returns. At 31, Blanco's BA (.299) and OBP (.373) are career highs, and while his inflated h% won't last, Blanco's xBA suggests some of the BA gains have staying power. Blanco has also pitched in some power and speed production in under 200 AB this season. Blanco's current production with the bat presents an upgrade over Pagan's, and it could lead to a changing of the guard down the stretch.
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