(*) PT TOMORROW: NL East—Who will patrol the OF in PHI?
Mar 1 2016
Odubel Herrera (OF, PHI; pictured) is expected to man center field, but the corner outfield spots are a little less certain. Aaron Altherr (OF, PHI) and Peter Bourjos (OF, PHI) seem to be the team’s primary options at those two positions, but could others enter the fray?
Bourjos batted .271 with 12 HR and 22 SB with the Angels in 2011, but his productivity has decreased significantly since then, as he has posted an xBA of .234 or less in each of the past four seasons. However, the oft-injured 29-year-old still owns elite speed, so there is still potential value if he can manage to reach base more consistently. Though he has never patrolled left field or right field in the majors and has barely seen action there in the minors, the team seems confident he’ll be able to adjust in short order.
Altherr, 25, has arguably the most upside of the bunch. He played well after getting a late season promotion from Triple-A, batting .241 with 5 HR, 6 SB, 97 xPX and 143 Spd in 137 AB. That came after he batted .293 with 14 HR and 16 SB in 433 AB combined between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. If he can manage more contact, there’s a chance he could put up a 15 HR/15 SB-type season.
Cody Asche (OF/3B, PHI) could work his way into some action against right-handed pitching (.248 BA, 11 HR in 347 AB vs. RHP in 2015). The 26-year-old is slated to serve as a fourth outfielder and backup third baseman. He has also begun getting work at first base as an attempt to add to his versatility.
Keep an eye on Tyler Goeddel (OF, PHI). The converted third baseman, who was selected in the Rule 5 draft in December 2015, can play all three outfield positions. He made strides at the plate last season, posting a .279/.350/.433 line with 12 HR and 28 SB in 533 AB at Double-A. Having never played above Double-A, the 23-year-old probably isn’t truly ready for the majors just yet—but the same could be said for Herrea but a year ago (a Rule 5 draftee in December 2014). Goeddel does possess intriguing raw talent.
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The revamped outfield will feature Ender Inciarte (OF, ATL), Nick Markakis (OF, ATL) and Hector Olivera (3B/OF, ATL) on most days. Who else could see playing time in the Atlanta outfield?
Olivera showed less than ideal range at third base last year, so the Braves moved him to left field. While he is expected to be the primary left fielder, the idea of him playing third base, at least on occasion, hasn’t been ruled out. The team wants to see what they have in Olivera, so they figure to have him in the lineup plenty until he gives them a reason to reconsider. Meanwhile, Michael Bourn (OF, ATL) figures to periodically give Olivera a breather against right-handed pitching, and also serve as a late-inning defensive replacement.
The club envisions Bourn serving as a mentor for young Mallex Smith (OF, ATL). Smith, 22, split 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a .306/.373/.386 line with 2 HR and 57 SB in 484 AB. He’ll begin the year at Triple-A Gwinnett, but could reach the majors sometime this summer.
After a dreadful 2015 in Chicago, Emilio Bonifácio (2B/OF, ATL) is anticipated to land a job as utilityman. The switch-hitter has historically fared much better against southpaws (.706 OPS in 724 lifetime AB), so it would make sense to use him in Inciarte’s stead (.588 OPS in 268 lifetime AB vs. LHP) against tough lefties.
The team would reportedly like to trade Nick Swisher (1B/OF, ATL). If they can’t find a taker for Swisher, they could opt to release him. They would likely be required to eat a large chunk of the $15 million he’s owed in 2016 in order to trade him, so releasing him isn’t a stretch. Keep in mind that the Indians sent the Braves $15 million in the deal that brought Swisher and Bourn to Atlanta in exchange for Chris Johnson (1B/3B, MIA).
Jeff Francoeur (OF, ATL) was recently signed to a minor league contract. If he isn’t on the Opening Day roster, he can opt-out on March 31 and become a free agent. Given the team’s outfield logjam, it’s doubtful he’ll make the cut unless the club is hit by injuries.
Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) started very slowly in 2015, but he made far more hard contact (see August and September) after a six-week demotion to the minors. The 25-year-old’s difficulties hitting same-sided pitching (.646 OPS and 87 PX in 374 AB vs. RHP in 2015) could eventually pose a threat to his playing time. It’s worth noting that Ozuna hit right-handers well in 2014 (.783 OPS in 455 AB), but also had trouble against them as a rookie in 2013 (.647 OPS in 209 AB). If he continues to have problems vs. RHP and/or if his defense in center field isn’t back to where it was pre-2015, it’s possible that Ozuna might lose playing time against right-handers.
Derek Dietrich (2B/3B/OF, MIA) would presumably be the beneficiary of such a development. Dietrich provides only adequate defense in left field, but he has shown the ability to crush right-handed pitching (.864 OPS, 147 PX in 205 AB in 2015). As things stand now, he figures to see occasional playing time in left field and third base while also backing up Dee Gordon (2B, MIA) at second base. Dietrich has also participated in some fielding drills at first base.
The Mets have an excellent starting rotation in place and Zack Wheeler (RHP, NYM), who had Tommy John surgery in March 2015, will also factor into the mix sometime around July 1. However, who would the team call upon if an injury were to arise before Wheeler is ready?
Logan Verrett (RHP, NYM) and Sean Gilmartin (LHP, NYM) are the two most likely candidates for spot starts and short-term fill-in work. It should also be noted that GM Sandy Alderson has said that while there are no innings restrictions, the team may utilize what amounts to a six-man rotation a couple of times during the first half of the season to give the starting five a little extra rest.
Verrett was a pleasant surprise in 2015. After posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 64.2 IP with Triple-A Las Vegas, the 26-year-old thrived in a long reliever/swing man role with the Mets (3.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 48 IP). Left-handed batters have given him trouble, both in the minors and in the majors, so that could work against him unless he shows improvement.
Gilmartin, who was a 2014 Rule 5 draft pick, had a solid rookie season working out of the bullpen (only 1 GS). Though the 26-year-old’s 3.73 xERA shows he wasn’t truly as good as the 2.67 ERA would suggest, his 8.5 Dom and ability to retire right-handed batters even better than lefties (.597 OPS vs. RHB; .661 OPS vs. LHB) were positive signs.
Rafael Montero (RHP, NYM) is a bit of a wild card for 2016. He entered spring training a year ago competing for the fifth starter gig, but wound up making the team as a reliever. The 25-year-old was limited to just 12 appearances combined between the majors and minors last year as shoulder soreness lingered. As of now, the team seems to be viewing him more as a starter than a reliever. However, there are a couple bullpen jobs up for grabs this spring, so it will be interesting to see if he can land one of them, potentially as long relief/sixth starter.
Aside from Bryce Harper (OF, WAS), there is a degree of uncertainty around exactly how playing time will be divvied up amongst Ben Revere (OF, WAS), Jayson Werth (OF, WAS) and Michael Taylor (OF, WAS). Is it possible that manager Dusty Baker could mix and match a bit?
Werth has missed a substantial number of games due to injury over the past few years, earning him an “F” health grade. The 36-year-old has been, for the most part, productive when in the lineup. Though his overall stats weren’t up to his standards in 2015, he did hit the ball with authority in the second half (10 HR, 116 HctX and 151 xPX in 230 AB).
Revere has four consecutive seasons with a batting average of .294 or better and has swiped a total of 80 bases combined over the past two seasons. He also has no historical platoon splits (.687 OPS in 740 career AB vs. LHP; .672 OPS in 1,757 career AB vs. RHP). However, he is viewed as a better defender in left field than center field.
Taylor struck out a bit too much as a rookie in 2015 (67% ct%), but his power/speed combination (115 xPX and 108 Spd) and fine center field defense could force the team to make a tough decision. They won’t want the 25-year-old sitting on the bench too much, so he figures to get a decent chunk of playing time one way or another. Given Werth’s inability to stay on the field, it might make sense to rest him rather frequently, but it remains to be seen if that will indeed happen. As of now, Taylor figures to occasionally spell the starting three and serve as a late-inning defensive replacement.
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