(*) PT TOMORROW: NL East—If PHI trades Gomez, who takes over as closer?
Jul 18 2016
With the August 1 non-waiver trade deadline rapidly approaching, it will be interesting to see if contending teams in need of bullpen help will seek to acquire closer Jeanmar Gómez (RHP, PHI). The rebuilding Phillies would surely be glad to swap him for a reasonable offer. With his track record of 4.00+ xERA and lack of swing-and-miss stuff, Gomez has surpassed all expectations, converting 25 of 27 saves chances. Should the Phillies trade him, who might step into the closer role?
Hector Neris (RHP, PHI), David Hernandez (RHP, PHI), Andrew Bailey (RHP, PHI) and Edubray Ramos (RHP, PHI) would be the contenders for the gig.
Neris and Ramos are intriguing, as they own the best skills, and in the case of Neris, the best stats of the bunch. Neris has a 2.81 ERA, 11.1 Dom, 3.2 Ctl and 137 BPV in 48 IP. Ramos, who was called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on June 24, has a grand total of 10 IP under his belt as a major leaguer, but he has flashed impressive skills (3.53 xERA, 10.2 Dom, 2.8 Ctl and 120 BPV). Manager Pete Mackanin has said that he believes Ramos could someday be a closer. However, it seems unlikely he’d get the nod in 2016.
Hernandez and Bailey have prior experience in the role, but there are concerns with both. Hernandez continues to be plagued by sketchy control and the longball. After logging a total of 9 IP in the majors from 2013-15, Bailey possesses a near-5.00 ERA and has again spent time on the disabled list.
It’s really anyone’s guess, but it would seem to make more sense for the Phillies to give Neris a shot, as the 27-year-old figures to be more of a long-term option than either Hernandez or Bailey (both eligible for free agency this winter).
The bullpen suffered a major loss when closer Arodys Vizcaíno (RHP, ATL) hit the disabled list with an oblique strain on July 16. As predicted here on June 28, Jim Johnson (RHP, ATL) stepped into the role in Vizcaino’s absence. However, there remains a possibility that Johnson could be dealt between now and August 1. Who might be next in line behind Johnson?
We covered the bullpen in great detail on June 28, but there have been a few noteworthy developments since that writing. Dario Alvarez (LHP, ATL) has emerged as the team’s most effective left-handed reliever, amassing a 2.45 ERA and 18.8 Dom in the tiny sample size of 11 IP. At this point, Alvarez and Chris Withrow (RHP, ATL) appear to be next in line behind Johnson. Don’t read too much into Mauricio Cabrera’s (RHP, ATL) two saves, as both came under unusual circumstances—one in an extra inning affair when Vizcaino was unavailable and the other on June 30 when the team’s bullpen was heavily taxed after losing its starter after just three innings. Cabrera has a fastball that averages 101 mph and routinely touches 103 mph, but lacks command. We must also keep in mind that the 22-year-old had roughly 51 IP above Single-A prior to his June 27 MLB debut.
Looking further ahead, keep an eye on Shea Simmons (RHP, ATL) and A.J. Minter (LHP, ATL). Simmons, who has had a couple setbacks in his rehab from February 2015 Tommy John surgery, was slated to throw a simulated game on July 18 and could soon begin a minor league rehab assignment. Minter, the 75th overall selection in the 2015 draft, has been extremely effective in his first taste of professional ball, posting a 0.44 ERA, 11.8 Dom and 2.2 Ctl in 20.2 IP combined between Single-A and Double-A this year, including a 11 K/0 BB in 4.2 IP at Double-A Mississippi. If the 22-year-old continues to pitch well, he could possibly make his MLB debut in September, and even if he doesn’t, it’s well worth filing his name away for 2017.
Justin Bour (1B, MIA) landed on the disabled list July 3 with a right ankle sprain. The hope was that he would be able to return when eligible, but that didn’t happen. It’s unclear how much more time Bour will need. In his absence, Chris Johnson (1B, MIA) and Don Kelly (1B, MIA) have been utilized in a platoon. However, the duo has struggled mightily, leading one to wonder if they might soon give Derek Dietrich (2B/3B/OF, MIA) a try there.
This option would presumably become even more appealing when Dee Gordon (2B, MIA) is reinstated from suspension July 28, should Bour still be on the shelf at that time. Prior to Gordon’s return, playing Dietrich at first base would result in Miguel Rojas (2B/SS, MIA) seeing time at second base. Rojas isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut (.586 lifetime OPS in 402 AB), but he would provide an upgrade defensively.
We warned last week that Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) could soon return from Triple-A Las Vegas, and sure enough, it happened on July 17. As expected, Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) was sent back to Triple-A for more seasoning. It will be interesting to see how manager Terry Collins elects to divvy up the playing time among his outfielders.
Yoenis Céspedes (OF, NYM) is expected to be limited to left field for at least the immediate future due to a strained right quad. According to reports, Cespedes has stated his preference to stay in left field for the rest of the season. That leaves Juan Lagares (OF, NYM) as the team’s best defensive option in center field. It also limits Conforto, a left fielder, to manning right field—a position he has just played four times as a professional. Curtis Granderson (OF, NYM) patrolled center field almost exclusively in his younger days, but he has started only 35 times there since 2012.
One would assume Conforto wasn’t recalled to sit on the bench, so our guess is that he’ll probably play right field against right-handed pitching with Granderson in center field. Lagares would serve as a late-inning defensive replacement on those days. When the opposing team has a left-hander on the mound, Lagares would start in center field with Granderson sliding over to right field and Conforto to the bench. While talking to the media on July 18, Collins seemed to suggest that he'd rather not use Granderson in center field, but added that Conforto could see time there. José Reyes (SS/3B, NYM) might also eventually get a look in center field. Stay tuned.
The Nationals caught some by surprise by promoting Reynaldo López (RHP, WAS) from Triple-A to start against the Dodgers on July 19. Lopez, who was ranked by BaseballHQ.com as the team’s fifth best prospect, will be taking the turn of Joe Ross (RHP, WAS) who remains on the shelf with right shoulder inflammation. Top prospect Lucas Giolito (RHP, WAS) filled that void the last two times through the rotation, but that Nationals wanted him to head to the minors to refine his command and breaking ball.
Lopez, 22, opened the season at Double-A Harrisburg and posted a 3.18 ERA, 11.8 Dom and 3.0 Ctl in 76.1 IP before moving up to Triple-A Syracuse. He wasn’t as dominant in his two outings with Syracuse (3.27 ERA, 7.4 Dom, 4.9 Ctl in 11 IP), but evidently the brass believes he is ready for the challenge. However, it’s worth noting that Giolito is also set to start for Syracuse on July 19, so it would be easy to swap them back and forth, should Ross require an extended absence.
Ross, incidentally, played catch on July 15 and reported no issues. However, there doesn’t appear to be a firm timetable for his return. The most recent estimate suggested he could be ready by the end of July, but the team will undoubtedly be extremely careful with the talented 23-year-old.
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