(*) PT TOMORROW: AL West—Surging in SEA
Aug 25 2015
After spending all but the last week of June in Triple-A attempting to come back from years of poor health, Franklin Gutiérrez (OF, SEA) is suddenly surging in the 2H. Fueled by both outstanding power and a 36% h%, Gutierrez's impressive .299/.346/.608 line through 97 AB has boosted his add frequency in deeper leagues. In addition, his five consecutive starts for the offense-challenged Mariners through Monday are making us take a closer look.
The most impressive aspects of Gutierrez's performance have been his health, following three seasons in which he saw less than 300 total MLB AB. Obviously if Gutierrez can't improve on his current 71% ct%, both his h% and BA will normalize. He's always flashed intriguing power in between injuries, particularly during his last MLB stint in 2013, when he hit 10 HR and posted a 181 PX in just 145 AB. But a current 30% hr/f and 128 xPX suggest that Gutierrez isn't quite as good as his 214 PX suggests. Despite a decent 105 HctX, Gutierrez is likely facing a correction of sorts across the board offensively.
And a look at his platoon splits reveals another reason to keep expectations in check. In a scheduling oddity, the Mariners have face five consecutive left-handed SPs, which accounts for the right-handed-hitting Gutierrez's recent playing time. Gutierrez is doing most of his damage vs. LHPs, with a .338 BA and 5 HR through 71 AB, vs. .219 and 2 HR (and 63% ct%) over 32 ABs vs. righties. These splits are in line with his career numbers—.292 vL, .242 vR. Interestingly enough, the big split exception here was that aforementioned 2013 power surge, when Gutierrez batted .267 with 7 HR in 90 AB against RHPs.
SEA currently has plenty of competition for DH/LF AB, and even with good defense, Gutierrez will have to keep mashing and improve his output vR to build on his current playing time. He projects as a free-agent to be this off-season, but regardless of where he lands, a larger role over the long haul for the 32-year-old Gutierrez remains an iffy proposition.
Even in the midst of their breakout season, 1B remains a day-to-day decision as well as a long-term question mark for the Astros. Unable to duplicate his .267 BA from the 2015 2H, Chris Carter's (1B/DH, HOU) sub-.200 BA—.135 with just 3 HR through 74 AB since June—has left him a part-timer at best. Luis Valbuena (1B/3B, HOU), with 3 HR and .233 BA through 103 2H AB, hasn't performed much better. The two have shared time recently with utility Marwin Gonzalez (1B/2B/3B/SS, HOU), who may not have their power, but whose .305/.359/.495 2H line (through 95 AB) has offered far better results. Now with 28 appearances at first-base, Gonzalez would be seeing more immediate time here if not for HOU's short-term LF needs following the Preston Tucker demotion—a situation that will last only until roster expansion at the latest.
Jon Singleton's (1B, HOU) September recall could further carve up the 1B time, but his August struggles at AAA-Fresno—2 HR, 25 Ks, .197 BA through 66 AB—are putting this one-time likelihood in question. He and surging Double-A prospect A.J. Reed are better bets for the future and not the present. But aside from the versatile Gonzalez, if you're looking for an outside-the-box-wildcard over these final weeks, consider unheralded Tyler White, who is suddenly getting plenty of 1B reps (21 games) and DH time at Triple-A. A college product and 33rd round 2013 draft pick, White has done nothing but hit and show terrific plate skills during his two-plus minor league seasons. His .389 BA through 162 AB (5 HR and a 30/39 BB/K) at AAA-Fresno could earn a September call-up—and while we have no way of peering inside the front office's mind on this one, stranger things have happened.
In the wake of Ben Zobrist's departure to KC and longer term questions regarding the future at 2B, we noted at the beginning of August here that Joe Wendle's (2B, OAK) .265/.326/.425 line (17/85 BB/K) through 435 ABs at AAA-Nashville had been something of a disappointment—and may have put a September call-up in jeopardy. Maybe Wendle read our piece, because all he's done since then is hit .343 in August through 98 AB, his best month of the season, along with his best power numbers (.515 Slg) since April. Wendle's 2/18 BB/K suggest he's selling out for better pop, and the 8 HR and .431 Slg YTD for the hitterish PCL still looks light based on Wendle's track record. But this recent surge has raised his overall BA to .288 entering Monday, and it may be just what he needs to get roster expansion consideration.
At least over the long-term and perhaps for September AB, Wendle's competition remains Chad Pinder (2B, OAK), who is two years younger and has had an all-round terrific season a level lower at AA-Midland. Pinder's plate skills (27/99 BB/K through 449 AB) haven't been any better than Wendle's. But Pinder has ratcheted up his game all season long, and has hit a scorching .346 over the last three months of the season through 266 AB. His overall .318 BA and 15 HR suggests barrel-up ability and nice pop for a middle-infielder. Don't be surprised to see him and/or Wendle in OAK next week.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The team's current offensive struggles have little to do with the performance of recently-acquired David Murphy (OF/DH, LAA), who seems to have cemented his near-term playing time and a 2016 job as the primary LF with an August performance that includes a .298 BA and 2 HR through 57 AB. Unlike Matt Joyce, Murphy has shown just average power and patience throughout most of his career. But he's also recorded a consistent mid-80s ct% that keeps his BA and overall performance playable vs. RHP, against whom he owns a .280/.342/. 457 line in over 2600+ career AB—none of which is too far off his .293/.332/.433 mark through 270 AB in 2015.
Murphy is no world-beater, and is unlikely to ever receive much more than 400 AB as a strong-side platoon wherever he goes. But he arrived in Anaheim with a friendly $7M club option for 2016. And his performance, a woeful Angels farm system and big question marks going forward at 2B, 3B and C all suggest that this is one of the few easy decisions on LAA's offseason plate. If these other positional issues can be resolved to the plus side, the 33-year-old Murphy should continue to put up very playable numbers and counting stats, hitting behind both Mike Trout and Albert Pujols—and in front of improving C.J. Cron. In short, he's still a decent keeper league piece and reliable bet for 400 AB until further notice.
Per recent notes out of Arlington, Robinson Chirinos (C, TEX) was scheduled to begin a rehab shortly after checking out his strained left shoulder, an injury that made swinging a bat painful, but reportedly didn't hamper his defense. Despite being on the DL since the end of July, Chirinos has posted a second straight season of good power-and-patience numbers, notably 9 HR, a 144/138 PX/xPX and an 11% bb% through 221 AB. Unfortunately once again, his offensive upside has been limited by an inability to hike a sub-par BA—currently at .226— into the .250+ range, where his xBA resides. And entering Monday, we have yet to see his first minor league rehab AB, which leave us wondering as to how effective Chirinos might be down the stretch.
With Carlos Corporan (C, TEX) suffering a setback in his own rehab return—from a sprained thumb that reportedly needs off-season surgery—and no timetable for his 2015 return, the catching situation looks sketchy for the remainder of 2015. Chris Gimenez (C, TEX) has gone 10-for-35 (.286 BA) with three HR, but this is his MLB high, and a career .216 BA (482 AB) neither suggest that this will continue or even that he'll get the opportunity. He's splitting time with Bobby Wilson (C, TEX), who is the better defender but inferior hitter of the two, with no sign of any of this changing. Steer clear of TEX catchers until something dramatically changes.
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