(*) PT TOMORROW: AL West—No longer easy Street?
Jun 14 2016
Now back from the DL, Huston Street (RHP, LAA) continues to look like he's swirling the drain as LAA's closer. While en route to blowing his first save of the season, the three runs that Street coughed up Saturday night put his YTD total at just four, raising his ERA to a reasonable 3.09 for the season. But Street's velocity is down another tick (just below 88 mph) in the early going, and his 6.01 xERA 3.9 Dom, 4.6 Ctl (56% FpK) through 12 IP tell a sad tale. His performance to date is a continuation of a 2015 2H during which Street posted a 4.59 xERA, when his once-exquisite control spiked close to four bb/9.
But with a two-year extension that runs through 2017 and a bullpen that ranks 12th in AL ERA, Street could continue to see opportunities to right the ship. Joe Smith (RHP, LAA) (currently on the DL) has been the backup closer, but his skills and trajectory are only slightly less ominous than Street's. Fernando Salas (RHP, LAA)—3.60/3.77 ERA/xERA over 30 IP—has also posted a couple of saves and has the best BPIs of these three names. But his fly-ball and gopheritis tendencies (1.5 hr/9) leave Salas ill-suited for the role full-time.
We've long touted Cam Bedrosian (RHP, LAA) in this space as the most likely longer-term solution, and his 1.64/3.01 ERA/xERA, 3.4 Cmd and 53% GB% through 22 IP are (finally) making us look good, though it remains a small sample. Obviously, given the volatile nature of relievers, another name could enter the picture with a good month. But on a team that could soon be out of contention and simply hoping to improve the market value of its most expensive assets, the timing of such a change is impossible to project. Attempting to corner LAA saves could prove difficult in 2016.
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Dae-Ho Lee (1B, SEA) has made his 108 AB count, with a .296/.333/.574 line that includes 10 HR. Lee's damage hasn't been just limited to LHPs, against whom he's receiving the AB in a weak-side platoon with Adam Lind (1B, SEA). Lee has hit six HR vs. RHPs, against whom he's batting .319. This is prompting some SEA watchers to call for more playing time, particularly in comparing Lee's performance to Lind's .247 BA and 8 HR through 158 AB.
Lee and Lind have received an equal number of starts in June; Lee actually has more plate appearances. But a big PT hike for Lee at the expense of Lind isn't likely in the cards soon. For one, following a slow start, Lind has posted a .290/.347/.693 mark with seven HR over the past 31 days ending Monday, giving SEA an outstanding production tandem at first base. While hitting into some poor luck early on, Lind has made good hard contact all season. A career .290/.351/.505 performance vR that lines up well with his 2015 numbers speaks volumes.
Lee's PT spurt is coming courtesy of both 1) a recent flood of opposing left-handers; and 2) selective starts vR at both first base and DH with Lind also in the lineup. Mgr Scott Servais is currently spot-starting the 34-year-old Lee against righties during this torrid stretch, while avoiding over-exposure in his first MLB season. Lee's power metrics—including a surprisingly low 109 xPX to go along with a 143 PX, and zero xBH aside from the 10 HR— and unremarkable plate skills (4% bb%, 77% ct%) suggest that regression is a legitimate concern. His fantasy owners should enjoy the ride, because things probably won't get much better than this.
Thanks to neck and shoulder tightness, Yu Darvish (RHP, TEX) landed back on the DL with an MRI scheduled after just three starts. Darvish has been terrific upon his return, as shown by his 16/6 K/BB, five earned runs through 16 IP. But coming off of more than a year of absence as a Tommy John patient, Darvish remains a health risk, and it's uncertain what he might be able to contribute both down the stretch and in the post-season. And despite an AL-leading 3.38 ERA entering Monday, the Rangers rotation behind him also has plenty of questions looking further down the road.
Darvish's co-ace Cole Hamels (LHP, TEX) has pivoted from a volatile May into an improved June, but a 3.5 Ctl (54% FpK) to date is well off his norms. Also note that this will be his first full summer pitching in the Arlington heat. Both Colby Lewis (RHP, TEX) and Martín Pérez (LHP, TEX) are posting ERAs near three, but with sub-par Doms and xERAs closer to mid-four—and neither has shown any recent ability to maintain this performance level over a full season. Derek Holland (LHP, TEX)—4.87/5.08 ERA/xERA through 65 IP—has been volatile at best.
With next to nothing in the way of arms any better and/or experienced in the high minors, the rotation will be hard-pressed to match its performance down the road, particularly if Darvish is a wildcard. And with plenty of offensive depth and low minors chips, expect the Rangers to look for MLB-ready rotation upgrades over the next six weeks.
Following a two-week run in which the team crept to within two games of .500, the Astros took a big step backwards this past week. Five losses in seven games, with just 21 runs scored, may accelerate some promotions from the minors. We touched on Alex Bregman's near-readiness and third-base reps in our previous column. And now of A.J. Reed (1B, HOU), GM Jeff Luhnow has said, "He's getting closer... I don't think we're that far away."
But a look at Reed's minor league production—including his 6-for-35 performance over the past week through Sunday—gives us pause. Reed's patience (28 BB through 175 AB) looks fine, and his 8 HR (22 xBH, .463 Slg) are reasonable if not particularly notable in the hitter-friendly PCL. But Reed is posting a very sub-par .240 BA on a 73% contact rate. And his 7-for-46 (67% ct%) mark vs. LHPs suggest that at least right now, Reed's best chance at MLB survival would be in a strong-side platoon.
The best thing Reed may have going for him now is the team's futility in generating offense from first base; they rank in the bottom third of all MLB clubs in most categories. Tyler White (1B/DH, HOU) has hit under .200 since the first two weeks of 2015; his BA is now down to .211 (72% ct%) and he's been reduced to starting every other game. Despite hitting better in June, utilityman Marwin Gonzalez (1B/3B/SS, HOU) has been only marginally better this year (.247, 4 HR) and has recently been needed elsewhere. Reed could get a call at any time, and he has good long-term upside. But fantasy owners should temper their immediate expectations—particularly those fueled by Reed's .340 BA at A+/AA in 2015.
Are slumps, injuries and trades suddenly re-opening a window for out-of-favor Billy Butler (1B/DH, OAK)? Now in year two of a three-year, $30M contract, Butler stared four of the past six games—two vs. RHPs—through Monday, despite playing in NL parks exclusively last week. Over the past 31 days in a small sample, Butler is doing his part, going 13-for-45 and posting a .302/.348/.512 line. He's maintained his typically good 80+% ct% during this period while slightly lowering his typically problematic GB% to 44%—a career outlier. Not coincidentally, an accompanying 122 HctX and 29% line-drive rate appear to be driving Butler's best productive stretch of the season.
Obviously faced with Yonder Alonso's struggles vLHP, the trade of Chris Coghlan and shelving of Josh Reddick, the A's are attempting to expose Butler at 1B along with DH in an effort to interest contenders that might be looking for a right-handed bat. Barring this, Butler's new life may be short-lived, and won't just be dependent on his own production. His AB will also be contingent on Josh Reddick's return from the DL, how productive Jake Smolinski and Max Muncy might be in sharing corner OF AB over these next few weeks, who else OAK is able to move. Plus, which A's prospects are promoted near or after the trade deadline. In short, monitor his progress—but don't get too excited about Butler's recent part-time success. Unless he can hold onto this current GB% or something close, this is likely as good as things get.
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