(*) PT TOMORROW: AL West—On your marks...
Mar 29 2017
Expect an effort to use quantity-over-quality and the new 10-day DL rule to mitigate a suspect pitching staff and maintain as many fresh arms as possible. The projected starters have performed reasonably well this spring, particularly given Arizona's offense-friendly environment and a late debut by Tyler Skaggs (LHP, LAA), who tossed 4 IP of one-run, 3/0 K/BB ball in his most recent outing.
The biggest immediate question marks surround Garrett Richards (RHP, LAA), due to a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament from last May that has been at least for now brought back to life by PRP injections. Richards' velocity is all the way back, but his command and pitch counts are shaky, making his ability to go deep into games—and stay healthy—anyone's guess. For the spring, Richards has tossed 8 IP (6 runs, 8/2 K/BB), with his four-inning performance on March 16 being his longest (and most recent) official spring training game outing to date. Jesse Chavez (RHP, LAA) has won the #5 spot entering Opening Day. But as an SP, Chavez has a history of beginning well before fading at some point in June/July, suggesting that he lacks the stamina for a season-long role.
The Angels will surround this group with a mix of long-relievers and ex-starters that include Bud Norris (RHP, LAA), J.C. Ramirez (RHP, LAA) and Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, LAA). All have pitched credibly this spring, notably Petit, who has allowed just one run through 12 IP (12/1 K/BB) thus far. All have been stretched out, all have shown MLB flashes at some point in their careers, but none merit immediate fantasy roster consideration in most leagues. Expect them to enter games early and often, and get the first starting nods when the frontliners either falter or need some time off. To be continued.
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The surprise of the camp has been a spring performance from Delino DeShields (OF, TEX)—16-for-53, 12 BB and 12/0 SB/CS—that may have won at least a chunk of the left-field job and pushed Jurickson Profar (OF/3B, TEX) back into a utility role early on. DeShields entered 2016 as the LF starter, but struggled out of the gate to make authoritative contact, eventually posting a .209 BA over 182 AB and spending half his season in Triple-A. DeShields' ct% is just slightly up this spring, but he's always been a 70%-ish contributor give-or-take, with outstanding patience and speed constantly battling a mediocre BA. A current tell might be the fact that he has just one xBH, a continuation of the soft contact and sub-par power that have plagued his MLB career to date. Arizona's sun-baked infields are more friendly than most of those DeShields will find this summer, and he'll again be challenged to keep whatever playing time he's earned.
Despite a 13-for-28 WBC performance, Profar is just 3-for-18 in spring training play, not exactly world-beating in comparison to DeShields. That said, 40-year-old Adrián Béltre's (3B, TEX) 1-for-15 WBC performance, a subsequent spring training outage (0-for-12) and some reported lower leg issues could result in some early time off. Or perhaps even an early 10-day DL stint to heal and round into shape, which would offer Profar another early path to playing time. Keep an eye on this situation.
Apart perhaps from Joe Musgrove taking an early rotation slot over slow-starting Colin McHugh as projected here last week, there have been no shocks or March battles to speak of in a deep organization that has few weaknesses. Barring a new injury, the battle between James Hoyt (RHP, HOU) and Jandal Gustave (RHP, HOU) for the final relief spot appears to be the only unresolved issue. Both are talented, both have had good springs, neither will see consistent high-leverage opportunities in an already well-defined and outstanding pen until further notice. And along with fellow-reliever-with-options Michael Feliz (RHP, HOU), both could be on an accelerated season-long shuttle between HOU and AAA-Fresno as fallout of the new MLB 10-day DL rule.
Of the regular position players, the most disappointing performance of spring training belonged to Josh Reddick (OF, HOU), who entered Tuesday 11-for-47 with no extra base hits. His strong-side platoon job in RF obviously isn't in any danger, but with an injury or extended slump, the club showed off plenty of firepower willing to step in. A.J. Reed's (1B, HOU) plate adjustments and strong spring (4 HR, 9/10 BB/K in 40 AB) have given the Astros something to think about—and a continuation in Triple-A could bring him back to HOU in short order. The early tip-off here will be Yulieski Gurriel (1B, HOU) occasionally moving from 1B in April to get some OF reps.
Among HOU's OF prospects, Derek Fisher's (OF, HOU) surprise spring training performance—.289 BA, 8 BB, 11/0 SB/CS in 38 AB—will interest any fantasy owners still looking for speed. But Fisher's 14 Ks reminds us that will need to show that he can improve the contact issues that were problematic for him last year between AA/AAA, where he posted a composite .255 BA with 153 Ks in 478 AB. As expected, Tony Kemp (OF/2B HOU) made contact and hit better this spring (10-for-35, just 3 Ks) than he did in his 120 AB (.217 BA) MLB debut. Both he and Teoscar Hernández (OF, HOU) have MLB experience that will get consideration when OF help is needed.
Neither experienced high-minors MI candidates Chad Pinder (2B/SS, OAK)—3-for-19, 10 Ks—or Joe Wendle (2B, OAK)—3-for-14, now sidelined with a shoulder injury—have suggested this spring that that they're ready for an extended MLB opportunity. But Franklin Barreto's (SS, OAK) 13-for-27 spring training performance may have muscled him into the immediate call-up mix in the event of a long-term injury. Barreto owns just 479 high minors AB, mostly at Double-A. He currently profiles better at 2B than SS defensively, his 0/3 SB/CS this past month points to a running game that still needs polish, and the Super Two date will certainly be a factor. But Barreto's bat speed and line-to-line, barrel-up contact gives him the offensive edge that an anemic OAK offense could need, depending on the timing.
33-year-old Jed Lowrie's (2B, OAK) versatility and chronic durability issues coupled with Trevor Plouffe's (3B, OAK) recent health woes point to plenty of routes into OAK for Barreto prior to the All-Star break. Pay him and the other OAK infielders some attention in the early going.
Steve Cishek (RHP, SEA) is still rehabbing from hip surgery and not likely to be ready until at least the latter half of April, and now Shae Simmons (RHP, SEA) is suddenly headed for the DL with a strained flexor tendon. With Tony Zych (RHP, SEA) reportedly Triple-A-bound to shake off some rust and regain stamina following off-season back surgery, the bullpen looks short-handed and left with a group of soft-tossers fronting closer Edwin Díaz. One relatively new name that has the skills to take advantage of this situation and suddenly a chance to build a high-leverage bullpen role is Dan Altavilla (RHP, SEA).
A mediocre minor league SP with a career 4+ ERA until 2016, Altavilla moved to the pen and working out of the stretch fulltime, with instant results. His velocity spiked into the mid/high 90s with movement—and the newfound power FB/slider combo made him a Double-A All-Star closer (1.91 ERA, 16 saves, 65 Ks over 56 IP) overnight. Altavilla barely missed a beat in a September jump to SEA, where he gave up just one run in a 12 IP, 10/1 K/BB performance). And now despite limited high-minors experience, Altavilla is suggesting again that he belongs, having allowed just three runs in 8 IP while posting a 9/2 K/BB. His control remains a question mark, and he's likely to eventually experience some growing pains at some point. But for the immediate future, this is a big arm with opportunity.
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