(*) PT TOMORROW: AL West— Opportunities old and new
Jan 2 2015
Billy Beane's garage sale leaves more questions than answers on team that occupied 1st place in the AL West for most of the season. With only a few everyday positions—notably 3B, CF and RF—appearing to have obvious front-runners, March playing time battles could carry over into April and beyond.
One of the immediate questions is at catcher, particularly with the departure of offensive-minded Derek Norris. OAK's issues containing opposing baserunners is one reason Norris is gone, but another is the acquisition of Josh Phegley (C, OAK), who caught 47% of wannabe base-stealers during a 6-year minor league career, and 29% over his limited MLB appearances. Offensively Phegley offers some promise, with decent contact and growing power, the latter suggested by 38 HR over his last 725 Triple-A AB in 2013-14 and a 137 PX last year.
Barring more deals, Phegley projects to either battle—or perhaps even platoon with—Stephen Vogt (1B/C/OF, OAK) behind the plate. Vogt was the best defender of the A's 2014 catching corps, but a foot injury limited him to just 15 games there. Decent offense (.279 BA, 86% ct%, 9 HR in 279 AB) kept him in the lineup at both 1B and OF, both of which are now unsettled and particularly LF, where an experienced/legitimate left-handed-hitting platoon isn't yet apparent. He projects as OAK's primary catcher early on, but depending on Phegley's offensive development, Vogt could again be a candidate for more OF and/or 1B time.
John Jaso (C/DH, OAK) remains in the fold and is still a factor in the competition for catching AB at least for now. But two consecutive 2H shutdowns related to concussion symptoms and Jaso's ongoing defensive struggles makes us wonder how long this lasts. He still offers good patience and actually teased with a power surge prior to his premature departure. But if he's still around in April, Jaso's AB behind the plate will likely decline while he picks up some left-handed AB at DH vs. RHPs. The OAK rebuilding process could result in a roster under construction for most if not all of 2015.
Howie Kendrick's off-season departure—via trade to LA—leaves behind a gaping hole at 2B. And judging from LAA's subsequent moves, the job is wide open. Josh Rutledge (2B/SS, LAA) was acquired from COL, and is coming off two mediocre seasons after a promising 2012 debut. Rutledge has never built on the power he flashed in his rookie season, and his running game fell off a cliff in 2014. Rutledge hit just .215 away from Coors Field last season, which makes us even more leery of his sub-par ct% and bb%. He compensates for limited defense somewhat by his ability to handle both MI positions in pinch, suggesting that Rutledge may well end up as the LAA utility infielder. Only age (25), rebound potential, and his new opportunity keep him watchable.
A trade with KC also adds ex-Royals prospect Johnny Giavotella (2B, KC) into the mix. Like Rutledge, Giavotella is another high-round draft pick who has scuffled in his MLB opportunities. He's shown elite contact and solid batting eye throughout his minor league career (.305 BA), but a 4% bb% and .238 BA in 437 MLB AB accumulated since 2011 haven't impressed. The 27-year-old, singles-hitting Giavotella will be dependent on plate skills and decent speed to restart his MLB career in Anaheim.
Barring a trade, holdover Grant Green (2B/OF, LAA) will also contend for AB at the keystone. Despite being a college-experienced 2009 1st round pick by OAK, the 27-year-old Green has seen just 239 MLB AB to date, primarily due to defensive issues that persuaded the A's to give up on him. Despite unremarkable plate skills, Green has hit .309 through 2200 minor league AB, making decent contact with a line-drive, all-fields swing and gap power. In 2014 , Green was red-hot in the 1H—.324 BA, 86% ct%, 24% LD%, 37% h%—after injuries gave him an everyday opportunity. Following his return to the bench, an eventual minor league demotion and 2H back injury, he wasn't the same despite a noticeable defensive improvement at 2B. Now out of options, Green is at the make-or-break point with the Angels.
Rule 5 acquisitions Taylor Featherston (from CHC) and Chris Curley (from CHW) will also get March evaluations. And looking out over the longer haul, LAA has signed 20-year-old Cuban import Roberto Baldoquin, who figures to start 2014 at either High-A or Double-A. Baldoquin was signed to an $8M bonus that surprised at least a few observers, though the Angels are reportedly optimistic (hopeful?) that he will rise through their ranks quickly. In short, LAA 2B time may not become clearer until the end of spring training—and it could be up for grabs for most of the season.
The signings of Luke Gregerson (RHP, HOU) and Pat Neshek (RHP, HOU) project as dramatic bullpen improvements, but HOU saves may still be up for grabs. While Gregerson's 3-year $18.5M contract may suggest otherwise, the reality paints a different picture, and Astros officials stopped just short of designating him as the closer. Gregerson has posted a superb sub-3 ERA and 3+ Cmd for three consecutive seasons, fueled primarily by improved Ctl. But his 7.3 Dom—a third consecutive season of decline—combined with sub-90 mph velocity suggest that Gregerson isn't your typical 9th inning guy. And indeed, he's never held this role for more than an interim period.
In fact, Gregerson's profile isn't too dissimilar from that of 2014 Chad Qualls (RHP, HOU)—3.33/2.97 ERA/xERA, 7.5 Dom—whose only 2014 blemish was his occasional 9th inning struggles. But though he converted just 19 of his 25 save opportunities, Qualls' Dom, Ctl, GB% and and BPV were all superior to that of Gregerson in 2014. If Gregerson runs into a patch of excessive contact without much luck, it's easy to see Qualls sliding back into his old role.
Neshek is likely to fall off some from his career year—1.87 ERA/3.21 ERA/xERA, 7.6 Cmd, 6 saves, 144 BPV, his first 100+ BPV ever—at age 34. But he, too, picked up some interim closer experience and could be used to get some final outs. Tony Sipp (LHP, HOU) had his best season in three years (3.38 ERA, 3.7 Cmd), and picked up four saves in the process. Despite his occasional control hiccups, Sipp is another late-inning option in matchup situations.
Following his 2H return to HOU after struggling early in CHC, free-agent-to-be Jose Veras (RHP, HOU) rediscovered the form—2.64 ERA, 10.6 Dom, 11.2 SwK%, 97 BPV—that helped him post 21 saves for the Astros in 2013. And if Josh Fields' (RHP, HOU) increased 2H change-up use is for real, a 11.5 Dom and 13% SwK% still keeps him on our closer-in-waiting watch, IF he can minimize the damage from a high FB%. With all of these imperfect-but-intriguing possibilities, it's easy to envision shared ninth inning duties in HOU.
After finishing 12th in AL scoring, but missing the post-season by a single game, the Mariners realized they had to improve their offense, particularly from the right side. And their acquisitions of Nelson Cruz, Justin Ruggiano (OF, SEA) and Seth Smith (OF, SEA) this week should help in this respect. But with Logan Morrison projecting as the primary 1B, the aging Cruz reportedly to be a most-of-the-time DH and Michael Saunders (inexplicably) traded to TOR for J.A. Happ, a weak-hitting SEA OF looks no better than it was in 2014.
The Ruggiano/Smith platoon should be interesting. Ruggiano boasts a career OPS of .836 vs LHPs; Smith's career figure is .839 vs RHP. While the arrangement is an improvement when compared to earlier this offseason, their lack of a viable 1B candidate still doesn't seem to set up their offense for much better than its 2014 counterpart.
Despite some minor moves—notably the acquisition of Ross Detwiler (LHP, TEX) for the back of the rotation, Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, TEX) out of the pen, and perhaps Kyle Blanks (OF, TEX) off the bench—TEX has been conspicuously absent from this winter’s sign-and-trade frenzy, and with good reason. The Rangers were obliterated early and often in 2014 by a combination of injuries and down seasons from core players like Yu Darvish, Prince Fielder, Jurickson Profar, Shin-Soo Choo, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus and Mitch Moreland, just to name the most prominent.
All of these names lost at least some value in 2014, and the Rangers are unlikely to risk selling anyone too low before getting a first impression as to what they have. Likewise, all of this will be big factors in spring job questions, the parameters of which will become more discernable with more health/injury/rehab news as we approach spring training report dates. But until then, don’t expect the Rangers to be looking for big upgrades from the free agent market or via deals with other teams. Other than at the edges, the current organization you see is likely what you’re going to get on the field in 2015.
Unlock all of our insights on your way to a fantasy title! See what our season-long coverage offers and then subscribe to BaseballHQ.com.
More From PT Tomorrow
Heston Kjerstad could be the beneficiary of Anthony Santander's pending free agency in BAL. Plus, hitters vying for 2025 playing time for TAM and TOR, and the effects of pending free agencies for BOS and NYY.
Sep 17 2024 3:10am
Sep 17 2024 3:10am
A look around the division with some questions for next year, including the Kansas City rotation and shortstop in Detroit.
Sep 13 2024 3:10am
Sep 13 2024 3:10am
MIL could have a new look infield, CHC still hasn't solved its problem at 3B, two situations to monitor in STL, coming full circle in CIN, and RF and 1B remain a problem in PIT.
Sep 12 2024 3:06am
Sep 12 2024 3:06am
Taking an early look at NL West rosters and the potential impact of free agent departures.
Sep 11 2024 6:54am
Sep 11 2024 6:54am
Who could play second as Atlanta fights for a playoff spot?
Sep 7 2024 3:10am
Sep 7 2024 3:10am
