(*) PT TOMORROW: AL West—The Khris Davis ripples
Feb 24 2016
Earlier this winter we noted that a shaky LF situation was ripe for change—and the other shoe finally dropped this past week with the acquisition of Khris Davis (OF, OAK) from MIL. But while incumbents Coco Crisp (OF, OAK) and Mark Canha OF/1B, OAK) appear to be the most affected on the surface, Davis' presence gives the A's flexibility.
With his skills in seemingly in decline and injuries now a factor, the 36-year-old Crisp's roster spot (and career) may be hanging by a thread. Having OAK on the hook for his final contract year and $11M gives Crisp some March breathing room, but he'll have to stay healthy and show more authoritative contact. Crisp will need to perform better than his .231 BA with a sub-80 HctX over 589 AB in 2014-15 to keep their interest. Davis' arrival confirms OAK's cautious outlook on Canha, who posted a credible rookie season (.254 BA, 78% ct%, 16 HR, 111 PX over 440 AB) with near-average skills. Canha enters 2016 without a full-time job, but he could still find plenty of AB between 1B and the OF pending the durability of some iffy OAK starters.
The other name whose PT is beginning to look a little precarious is Billy Butler (DH, OAK)—and not just because Davis' defensive metrics suggest that DH is his best position. Butler had slightly less 2015 production than Canha in almost a hundred more AB, courtesy of a now-chronic 50% GB% and some poor h% luck. Two years remaining on his contract helps to guarantee regular playing time over the near-term, and Butler's BA will likely rebound at least a tad. But barring an unexpected performance surge, he may no longer be an automatic a lineup fixture with the arrival of Davis.
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February is turning into March, and almost predictably Josh Hamilton's (OF, TEX) surgically-repaired left knee is barking again, calling into question not just his readiness for Opening Day, but his overall 2016 availability following a lost 2015 in which he managed just 170 AB. The Rangers will scour the trade and remaining free agent markets for a veteran to front a March left-field mix that includes part-timers Justin Ruggiano and Ryan Rua vs LHPs. But the more interesting question now revolves around how an extended Hamilton absence might impact the timelines of TEX's outstanding OF prospects.
Obviously 22-year-old Joey Gallo (3B/OF, TEX) is primarily a third baseman, and would benefit from more Triple-A time to work on his pitch recognition and defense. But until Adrián Béltre is no longer in a Rangers uniform—or on the DL—most of Gallo's PT is likely to come in LF. Should the Rangers push him again early on, fantasy owners can expect something similar to the low-BA/solid-power performance from 2015. Gallo had just 6 HR and a .2015 BA in 108, and was often benched vs. MLB lefties. When he did face LHP, he whiffed in 23 of 39 plate appearances.
Now on the 40-man roster, prospect Nomar Mazara's (OF, TEX) 2016 upside looks more intriguing than that of Gallo. Mazara's contact rate suggests he'd hit for higher average, though Mazara is even younger than Gallo, has zero MLB experience, and is coming off a good-not-great consolidation year—.296 BA, 14 HR in 490 AB. Mazara doesn't have Gallo's power—few do—but he projects as a solid 20+ HR corner OF at his peak. A left-field hole and good spring could conceiveably fast-track Mazara to Arlington, but for now the odds are on a July/August debut.
Lewis Brinson (OF, TEX) was mentioned in this space just last week as the Rangers' CF of the future, though his limited high minors experience suggests that future is more likely to begin sometime in 2017. But again, 2016 needs and performances will obviously impact these decisions. And more offensive fireworks from Brinson—who hit .332 with 20 HR and 18 SB between A+ and AAA—could accelerate the future, particularly given his plus defense and current CF Delino DeShields' ability to move over to LF. In short, the Rangers have a left-field situation and three offensive OF prospects that bear watching this spring.
The trade of highly-regarded pitching prospect Vincent Velasquez SP for PHI closer Ken Giles (RHP, HOU) seemed to mean that Giles would handle the Astros ninth inning duties. However, no one on HOU made a definitive announcement, which left the door open for 2015 closer Luke Gregerson's (RHP, HOU) comments last week that he didn't "see any reason why I should lose my job... we'll just move forward and see where it takes us." Manager A.J. Hinch's immediate response that it was a sign of "competitiveness" and that he didn't "begrudge Gregerson for voicing his opinion," and without putting the issue to bed, Hinch left the door open a crack.
But while Hinch may take his time with a formal announcement, there's more at play here than the price for Giles. Giles took over the PHI closer role late last July following the departure of Jon Papelbon and never looked back. His 2H BPIs—1.59/2.65 ERA/xERA, 11.4 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 49% GB% over 34 IP—surged into elite territory, and his 64% FpK and 15% SwK fully supported his K/BB rate. Giles high-90s gas and 175 BPV points to a 25-year-old on the verge of a breakthrough as a shut-down ninth inning weapon.
This isn't a knock on soft-tossing groundballer Gregerson. He wasn't awful by any means in his first full season as closer, posting a 3.10 ERA, 8.7 Dom, 1.5 Ctl and converting 31 of 36 save opportunities. But Giles' dominance is a notable difference, one that should leave less to chance late in close games. Obviously should something inexplicable happen to Giles in March, Gregerson projects as a fine fallback position. Houston is forward-thinking enough to occasionally change things up depending on circumstances and/or give Giles an occasional breather. But regardless of how he feels about it, Gregerson now projects as a setup option—and his fantasy value is taking a hit.
Newly-acquired Adam Lind (1B, SEA) projects as a fixture at first base vs. RHPs, courtesy of a fine career .293/.354/.509 line vR over almost 3000 MLB AB—and a contract that runs through 2017. The 32-year-old Lind's 2015 platoon performance (.291 BA, 20 HR over 398 AB) was representative of his ongoing success, which has been interrupted recently by back woes that have left him a "C" Health grade. Lind's .221 BA vL was also indicative of his career struggles against lefties—which along with his occasional DL time makes a platoon partner and backup plan necessary.
Now included in SEA's spring trials for this spot is 34-year-old right-handed-hitting import Dae-Ho Lee (1B, SEA). Lee produced power and BA with fine plate skills throughout his Korean career, hitting a personal high of 31 HR while slashing .282/.364/.524 in 2015. Obviously, it's difficult to translate these numbers into MLB performance and Lee is blank slate until we see how he does in March. Despite good size, Lee also reportedly has the ability to play OF, suggesting that he has several paths to playing time in the DH-friendly AL depending on his performance.
Prior to Lee's arrival, the clear favorite for AB vL at 1B was ex-prospect Jesus Montero (1B, SEA). Montero finally conditioned himself in 2015 and put together a fine Triple-A season—.355 BA, 18 HR in 394 AB, 82% ct%. Montero hit just .223 in 112 AB in SEA, but he flashed enough signs (126 HctX 133/122 PX/xPX, 5 HR) to keep us interested. Finally out of MLB options, the 26-year-old Montero might still have an edge, but it will be a challenging next five weeks.
As spring training began last week, manager Mike Scioscia announced that there would be competition for the second base job between incumbent Johnny Giavotella (2B, LAA) and free agent signee Cliff Pennington (2B/SS LAA), along with spring training invites Gregorio Petit and Rey Navarro. Obviously not a vote of confidence in Giavotella, whose .272 BA—supported by a .272 xBA, 87% ct% and 24% LD%—was a plus despite zero power or running game. Giavotella's poor defense is the main reason he's been unable to lock down the keystone, although a 71% HctX suggests his offense may have peaked in 2015.
The 32-year-old Pennington is the only one of the other three names who has extensive MLB experience, but he's a .245 career hitter over 2404 AB whose best seasons came back in 2010-11—and who is best known for his glove. His new two-year contract suggests that Pennington will break camp as a back-up utility at the very list. Both Petit and Navarro are also no-hit, good glove types with career .260-something minor league BAs, sub-par secondary skills, and little chance of making the Opening Day roster.
An LAA offense that finished 12th in AL scoring and didn't improve over the off-season suggests that—barring a new free signing or a trade—Giavotella should still see most of the AB, though his glove and lack of versatility will always keep his job and roster spot in jeopardy. Scioscia has suggested that this team will run more in an effort to generate some offense, which could add some SB into the mix for Giavotella, and particularly Pennington, who swiped 59 bases between 2010 and 2012. But LAA's second base spot is not where fantasy owners should be looking for upside.
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