(*) PT TOMORROW: AL Central—Spring pitching update

[With the season on hold, we've asked our PT TOMORROW writers for the rest of the month to "reset" each of their team's significant spring job battles, and/or developments in the several weeks of spring training that did take place. We'll focus on pitching staffs the week of March 16, and position players the week of March 23. For more on BaseballHQ.com's plan for this break, subscribers should check our GM's OFFICE article from March 13. Thanks! —Ed.]

 

Minnesota Twins

Devin Smeltzer (LHP, MIN) apparently pitched himself out of the fifth starter competition by giving up five earned runs in three innings in an exhibition game in the Dominican Republic on March 7. That ostensibly opened the door for Jhoulys Chacín (RHP, MIN) to enter the fifth starter competition with Randy Dobnak (RHP, MIN). 

However, Dobnak (pictured above) would now seem to have the rotation slot locked up, after three starts totaling 10 innings, allowing five hits (including two HR) and three runs. Those two home runs are certainly uncharacteristic for a 53% groundball pitcher who only allowed one HR in his 28 MLB innings in 2019 and 15 HR in 297 minor league innings, so chalk that up to the small sample size. 

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Chacin made two spring starts along with one relief appearance totaling eight innings, giving up six runs and seven hits. He posted a 6.01 ERA in an interrupted 2019 with multiple IL trips for back and oblique strains and stints in COL and BOS. At age 32 with an F Health Grade, it seems highly unlikely that he will return to the double-digit value shown in 2017-18.

 

Chicago White Sox

The spring battle for the back end of the White Sox rotation appears to have been won by Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW), who has collected 11 strikeouts against three walks in his nine innings. This follows a similar pattern to his 2019 second half MLB debut performance, with 81 strikeouts (but 35 walks) in 73 innings. He was able to blow his 96+ mph fastball by the hitters, but location problems yielded a substandard 59% FpK and a poor 2.3 Cmd. 

Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) was expected to sit at the top of the rotation, but just recently made his one-inning spring debut after straining a chest muscle shortly after arriving in camp. With players heading home and spring training suspended, it is uncertain if/how far he will be stretched out before the season gets underway, so an opportunity might exist for another starting pitcher.

Michael Kopech (RHP, CHW) has reportedly impressed the team with his spring workouts after his 2018 Tommy John surgery, and although he was projected to begin the season in the minors, the same questions about readiness timing for Giolito against the 2020 season start could also be applied to Kopech. 

That could open the door for Carson Fulmer (RHP, CHW) to get another shot at a spot starter role on the South Side. Carson Fulmer you ask? He with the career 6.1 Ctl and 1.3 Cmd? Fulmer is tied for the team lead (with Cease) in spring training strikeouts with 11, against three walks in nine innings. Yes a small sample, and all in relief, but consistent with his 2019 work in the minors, where he collected 51 K in 34 innings across 24 relief appearances. That use as a long reliever could bring him back as a spot starter, and his newfound Dominance in that role could make him an interesting last man on a fantasy staff. 

 

Cleveland Indians

Emmanuel Clase (RHP, CLE) was expected to carry a high-leverage role in the Tribe bullpen in 2020, but a strained teres major muscle in his back is expected to keep him on the shelf until sometime in May. How does this affect the bridge to closer Brad Hand (LHP, CLE)?

Rookie James Karinchak (RHP, CLE) currently sits atop the projected holds allocation heap in Cleveland, and has nine strikeouts and five walks in his 5.2 spring innings, which except for the walks, is right in line with his five inning September 2019 MLB debut. Both of these are the smallest of samples, but the slightly larger body of work in the minors (102 innings) shows a rising walk rate as he has climbed the organizational ladder. He has shown in the minors that he can overpower his control issues (5.5 Ctl) with his exceptional Dominance (16.4 Dom), but those walks in the late innings could make him vulnerable in the setup role. 

Nick Wittgren (RHP, CLE) was also mentioned in our last look at this bullpen, and he has been hit hard in spring training, yielding six earned runs on six hits and three walks in his 5.2 innings. The other expected holds candidates have not done much better. Adam Cimber (RHP, CLE) has allowed three runs in his four innings, and Hunter Wood (RHP, CLE) has allowed eight earned runs in his 3.2 innings. 

Their best spring bullpen performance belongs to Phil Maton (RHP, CLE), with only one run allowed in his seven innings of work. He is currently ticketed for middle relief but his career 9.5 Dom, 2.7 Cmd in 127 innings could get him a shot at the late innings if the others above falter. 

 

Detroit Tigers

If there was any doubt, Spencer Turnbull (RHP, DET) locked down the No. 2 spot in the Tigers rotation behind Matt Boyd (RHP, DET) with a strong (abbreviated) spring. Turnbull allowed just one run in 11 innings, while tossing 13 strikeouts against four walks. His ground ball tilt keeps the ball in the yard (0.8 hr/9) and his unlucky 34% hit rate, 67% strand rate combo suggest normalization will improve results.

Manager Ron Gardenhire recently named Buck Farmer (RHP, DET) as the primary setup man behind closer Joe Jiménez (RHP, DET), and said he would build the rest of the bullpen from there. Those building blocks are expected to include John Schreiber (RHP, DET) and Nick Ramirez (LHP, DET). 

Schreiber had a successful MLB debut in late 2019, showing off a 13.2 Dom with a strong 13% SwK. He did have a small sample gopheritis issue though, yielding three HR in his 13 innings. He was much better at that at AAA-Toledo with four HR in 59 IP, where he also had a 10.6 Dom and 3.3 Cmd. He is currently projected as the holds leader in the Detroit pen, and his smaller sample in spring training (three runs in three innings) can probably be discounted. 

The soft-tossing Ramirez (with his 90 mph fastball) is having a better spring (six K, two BB, one run in six IP), and owns the top lefty role in this pen. His 55% FpK explains his disappointing 4.0 Ctl, and his limited holds collection possibilities on a lower ranked team indicates that 2020 fantasy relief shoppers should look elsewhere. 

 

Kansas City Royals

Titular No. 1 starter Jakob Junis (RHP, KC), like Giolito noted above, has only pitched one inning during spring training, due to back soreness. That makes the battle for the back end of the Royals rotation take on more significance. 

Despite earlier pronouncements that Jorge López (RHP, KC) and Glenn Sparkman (RHP, KC) would be moved to the bullpen, both are seeing significant usage in longer spring outings. Lopez has made three starts and two relief appearances, totaling 10.2 innings (leading all KC pitchers in the spring). He’s shown uncharacteristic Dom (12 K) and Ctl (two BB) when looking at his career numbers, but as pointed out in the 2020 Baseball Forecaster, he did flash a 9.2 Dom/2.7 Ctl as a reliever in 37 innings during 2019. 

Sparkman had zero starts in spring training, but did pitch 8.1 innings across five appearances. He also racked up 12 strikeouts against zero walks; a small sample that doesn’t match his career 1.9 Cmd, which has no appreciable starter/reliever splits like Lopez’s.

Of the prospect candidates mentioned in our last look at the rotation, Brady Singer (RHP, KC) saw the most spring usage: two starts, two relief appearances, 5.2 innings. Singer, the Royals' No. 6 prospect in BaseballHQ’s 2020 Minor League Baseball Analyst, threw 90 innings at AA-Northwest Arkansas in the second half of the 2019 minor league season, and would seem to be the best of the longshot prospect possibilities for some 2020 rotation action in KC. 

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