NL East: Mets conclude Homeric quest for homers

New York Mets

Queens may have little in common with ancient Athens, save perhaps for a cluster of vintage Greek diners still serving in Astoria, a deep appreciation for drama, and their respective thirst for Homer(s). This winter, though, we were treated to an old-school Athenian schooling in Flushing.

When Socrates put Laches, a renowned Athenian general, through the ringer during one of his famous dialectics, together they uncovered some interesting contradictions. Laches had insisted that courage meant never retreating in battle, but Socrates, after grinding the poor guy down to a nub, got him to admit that it could also include successful tactical retreats. They came to agree that courage isn’t defined as some kind of suicidal warrior madness; it applies to many things outside of war, and is tempered by wisdom—a “wise endurance of the soul.”

Pete Alonso entered free agency with all the fervor of a Greek hoplite facing down the Persians. Unable to best David Stearns in battle, his wily general Scott Boras relented on offense and organized a tactical retreat, negotiating a pillow contract that would keep Alonso in NY and allow him to resume the fight in 2026. Perhaps Boras keeps a dog-eared copy of Plato’s Laches, or Courage under his pillow after all.

If there's a lesson here for you, dear reader, it's this: like running an MLB club, succeeding at fantasy calls for a wise endurance of the soul. Pace your spending, both on the waiver wire and in how you invest of yourselves in your teams. Always be willing to ask tough questions. When called for, cut your losses and pivot. Cultivate knowledge and remain nimble. Be virtuous. Make old Socrates proud.

The Mets under Stearns know the value of contradictions. They can run up the second-largest payroll in the sport and be thrifty when it comes to longer commitments. This not only applies to slightly rumpled first basemen, but also— primarily, even—to pitchers.

Stearns exercised wise endurance assembling his pitching staff for 2025. He avoided big tickets and repeated the Milwaukee-inspired blueprint that succeeded in 2024: exploiting market inefficiencies by snagging flawed yet talented hurlers on short deals. The shoe-ins for a likely six-man rotation are Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes. Vying for open spots will be David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, and perhaps Paul Blackburn, depending on his recovery from surgery to repair a spinal fluid leak in his back. 

Peterson is comfortably at the center of the bubble after posting 10 W and a 2.90 ERA in 121 IP. The regression monster will be hot on his heels (4.01 xERA), but even that skills-based estimator would support a full-time role in the rotation. Canning may seem like an odd signing after his disastrous 5.14 ERA (4.79 xERA) in 171 IP, but he did show some promise in 2023 (3.90 xERA, 19% K-BB%)—keep an eye on his gun readings to see if he can recover some of the velocity he lost in 2024. Blackburn will have to prove healthy from an injury that sounds like something out of the Saw franchise, but even if his spine is done gushing essential liquids, he’s proven himself borderline capable yet unexciting from a fantasy perspective (career 4.27 xERA, 17% K%).

The real sleeper in this competition could be Megill. Several public pitch grading systems laud his wide arsenal, and in 2024 he got 25%+ whiff percentages on five different pitch types. Megill’s 3.84 xERA, 13.1 SwK%, and 17% K-BB% further hint at his chances of succeeding in the rotation. Two things working against him: a history of injuries (177 IL days in last three years), and his remaining MiLB option, which allows the Mets to shuttle him between AAA-Syracuse and the big club.

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Atlanta Braves

For the Braves, the biggest additions will be getting back a couple stars from serious injuries. Ronald Acuña followed up his epic 40/70 2023 season by tearing his left ACL and spending 111 days on the IL. He’s come back from a catastrophic ACL injury before—he injured his right knee in 2021. His follow-up performance in 2022 (15 HR, 29 SB, .266) could be instructive, giving us an idea of what we might expect in 2025. At 27, he’s theoretically at the height of his batting skills (and now a few years older since the last knee injury), so perhaps look for a few more homers and fewer steals this time. Current expectations are that Acuña will not be ready for Opening Day, as the club takes great care with its dynamic superstar. Jarred Kelenic and the newly-acquired Bryan De La Cruz will keep right field warm in his absence. 

On the pitching side, Spencer Strider will attempt to come back from a second Tommy John surgery (this one technically an internal brace). His timetable is fluid, although we can assume that Opening day is unlikely—late word from Atlanta's camp is that he's aiming for late April. Fortunately for Atlanta, the rotation is in good shape otherwise, with Chris Sale coming off a Cy Young season, Reynaldo López succeeding beyond all reasonable expectations in his transition to starting (8 W, 1.99 ERA), and Spencer Schwellenbach making a splash in his rookie campaign (3.44 xERA, 20.8 K-BB%). 

GM Alex Anthopoulos is on the record that the team will bring both star players along deliberately, so keep an eye on reports—and conservatively add several weeks to any timetables suggested during camp.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies, anticipating the exodus of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, signed former Toronto closer Jordan Romano to head up the bullpen. While we might expect Romano to get the lion’s share of saves, we know that the manager Rob Thomson favors distributing chances over relying heavily on a single go-to guy. Since 2022, when he took over mid-season, no PHI reliever has amassed more than 23 saves. The Phillies boast a deep and talented relief corps. Expect José Alvarado to continue to get in his licks, especially in lefty-saturated ninth innings. 

Orion Kerkering appears to be the future head of the Philadelphia Phiremen’s Brigade. His use in high-leverage situations should increase based on a successful first full MLB season in 2024: 2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 22% K-BB%. Any improvement on his 12.1% SwK% could vault Kerkering into the top spot sooner than later, especially given Romano’s health history.

Few teams can match the strength and depth of the Phillies’ starting five. Jesús Luzardo came over in a trade with the Marlins and is expected to round out the rotation. Despite injury concerns and inconsistency, Luzardo has previously dazzled with his stuff. Due to elbow pain and a stress reaction in his back, he flopped to a 5.00 ERA (4.27 xERA) and 1.25 WHIP in 66 IP in 2024. But between 2022-23, Luzardo posted a 3.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 20.9 K-BB%, and 14% SwK% over 279 IP. The 27-year-old lefty is in mix for the title of most talented 5^th starter in the game (excluding the Dodgers and their absurd larder of highly-skilled pitchers).

 

Washington Nationals

Spring is all about nature's renewal and rebirth. The Nationals, ever the naturalists, have been playing as though bound inside a cocoon over the past several seasons. Since enduring two last-place finishes in 2022 and 2023, WAS heaved themselves into fourth place in 2024, tracing a positive trajectory. Now, with a significant influx of top prospect talent making the major league roster, the Nats will set their sights on emerging from their chrysalis and displacing at least one of the three divisional goliaths ahead of them in 2025.

The team’s biggest offseason acquisition, Nathaniel Lowe, may not seem a huge addition, but his strength is in his steadiness. While he did spend 24 games on the IL in 2024, those were his first ever since the 29-year-old debuted in 2019. Lowe’s 27 HR performance in 2022 is starting to look like an outlier, but his career .356 OBP and 122 wRC+ will be a valuable addition. What's more, his career .767/.794 L/R splits promise to keep him in the middle of the lineup full-time.

The Nationals will place their biggest hopes of catching up with the Jonses on a pair of former top prospects who got their first taste of the bigs in 2024. James Wood (9 HR, 14 SB, .264/.354/.427 in 336 PA) hit the ground running, but his further development will depend on him not hitting into the ground so often (55% GB%). Dylan Crews had a smaller cup of coffee and dazzled with this speed (12 SB, 3 CS, 140 RSpd) but had trouble with the rest (.218/.288/.353) in 132 PA. That’s barely over a month of action, so small sample caveat definitely applies. BHQ’s prospects guru Chris Blessing is bullish on Crews’ chances of making a big contribution in fantasy, perhaps even in 2025, tagging the 22-year-old with an “UP: 20 HR” in Baseball Forecaster.

 

Miami Marlins

After shedding Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, A.J. Puk, Tanner Scott, and more last season and trading away Jesús Luzardo for prospects this winter, this may be the thinnest Marlins crew heading into spring training in quite some time—and that's saying something, folks. Like the Braves, their biggest additions will come in the form of two excellent players returning from injury. Unlike the Braves, though, these are the Marlins.

The Fish will reel in their ace Sandy Alcantara, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2023. He's already throwing in camp, although his return to competition remains unclear. The Marlins have made a habit—nay, a sport—of dealing their stars away recently, and with Alcantara signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027, they could get a haul in return for him at the deadline or even before. It would be reasonable to assume that the Marlins will take it easy on him early, perhaps limiting his innings for a stretch until he can truly build back up and regain his frontline starter form, and importantly, his trade value.

The other consequential Marlins pitcher expected to return in 2025 is Eury Pérez. His brilliant 2023 debut (5 W, 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 20 K-BB%, 15.8 SwK% in 91) was cut short by a pelvic injury, then he had Tommy John surgery last spring. Reports indicate he’ll be ready to return sometime mid-2025, which jibes with the typical 12-18 month TJS timeline. Unlike the 29-year-old Alcantara, Perez is only 21 and has five more years of team control. One never knows when the Marlins are involved, but it’s far more likely that Perez will be staying in MIA throughout this season and for several more, at least.

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