(*) DIVISIONAL OUTLOOK: NL Central—If Soriano leaves ...
Mar 1 2013
The recent injury to Curtis Granderson (OF, NYY) has fanned trade rumors surrounding Alfonso Soriano (OF, CHC). Soriano is signed through 2014 and has a no-trade clause, but has indicated that there are six or seven teams to which he would accept a trade. The Cubs are apparently willing to cover "a whole lot" of the $36 million owed to him. If Soriano has a new home before the season begins, who gets his playing time in Chicago?
Long term, the answer is Brett Jackson (OF, CHC). The 24-year-old Jackson is a prospect who has shown both power and speed in the minors but also has shown that he might not be ready for the majors. Although he displayed an impressive 166 PX in 120 AB, he also had a horrendous 51% contact rate. He still has work to do that might be better done in the minors.
Behind Soriano on the left field depth chart are Darnell McDonald (OF, CHC) and Brent Lillibridge (UT, CHC). McDonald hit .205 in 88 AB last season. Over the past four seasons, he has had only one in which he produced an OBA over .300. Lillibridge hit .195 last season, with a contact rate of only 63%. Neither shows promise of being productive in a full-time role.
The immediate answer would likely be Scott Hairston (OF, CHC). Hairston has serious power, as he hit 20 homers in 377 AB last season, and his .263 BA/.273 xBA are certainly acceptable with that kind of power output. We are currently projecting Hairston for 254 AB, but a Soriano departure could significantly affect that projection.
The Reds have three candidates competing for two spots at catcher. Incumbent Ryan Hanigan (C, CIN) has the inside track, as Devin Mesoraco (C, CIN) and non-roster invitee veteran Miguel Olivo (C, CIN) compete for the backup role. Manager Dusty Baker has had positive things to say about Olivo: "He's super strong. He has a real good throwing arm ... He brings a lot of energy to the game." A look at Olivo's skills suggests that he should be viewed as a serious contender.
Hanigan has been a consistent .270 hitter for several years, and and it has made up for a complete lack of power (a PX around 50 most seasons). For the past two years, however, Hanigan's xBA has dropped below .250, and if his BA follows suit, he'll have zero offensive value. Mesoraco came into last season with a history of power skills in the minors, but those did not immediately translate to the majors, as he hit only five homers in 165 AB. In addition, he has struggled against RHP in the bigs, hitting .167 and .183 against them the past two years. Enter Olivo.
The 34-year-old veteran has only one positive offensive skill: his power. Even though it has been fading, he still managed to hit 12 homers in 315 AB for Seattle in 2012. Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark increases RHB home runs by a whopping 43%, so Olivo is a great match with that environment. Don't count Olivo out of this competition. His presence could allow the Reds to give Mesoraco more minor league seasoning, and his experience and power might eventually garner a good number of AB.
Projected fifth starter Francisco Liriano (LHP, PIT) broke his non-pitching arm in December and is questionable for the start of the season, so four candidates in camp are vying for the opportunity to make a few April starts. Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT) and Kyle McPherson (RHP, PIT) probably have the inside track; the two long-shots are Andrew Oliver (LHP, PIT) and Kris Johnson (LHP, PIT).
Locke had six starts for the Pirates in 2012 and produced a 5.50 ERA, in large part due to a 17% hr/f rate. His underlying numbers were much better: 3.71 xERA, 2.9 Ctl, 8.9 Dom, 110 BPV. Based upon a MLE Dom of 6.4 in the past two seasons, he'll need to prove that last season's small MLB sample was no fluke and also show that he can keep the ball in the park.
McPherson has a bit more promise and could be the gem of the competition. In 26 IP last season, including three starts, he had a 2.73 ERA. His xERA of 3.90 indicates that he was a bit lucky, but he still displayed substantial skills with 7.2 Dom, 3.0 Cmd, and 89 BPV. He's grade "A" LIMA pick.
Oliver made seven starts for DET over the past two seasons and totaled an ugly 7.11 ERA. He is undermined by chronic control issues, (6.0 Ctl in the majors). Johnson grabbed attention with a dominating performance in the Dominican Winter League: 59.1 IP, 1.06 ERA and just 37 hits given up. His MLEs from last season are much less encouraging, as they show a low Dom pitcher (4.7) without the necessary Ctl (4.1) to be successful. He had a 4.43 MLE ERA and 17 BPV.
This competition could come down to the end of camp, and while the winner may have only a short window in April, Liriano was inconsistent last season with a 50/32 PQS-DOM/DIS, a 5.34 ERA, and 5.0 Ctl. A couple of strong starts in April could mean more opportunity down the road.
Rafael Furcal's (SS, STL) sore elbow has shown some signs of improvement this week, and he may finally be able to take the field. Furcal suffered ligament damage on August 30 and opted for rest and rehab rather than surgery. His elbow soreness in camp indicates that the problem lingers. According to St. Louis Post Dispatch, "Internal estimates classified 100 starts from Furcal this season as a 'home run'." Due to various injuries, Furcal's games played numbers over the past five seasons have been 36, 150, 97, and 87, and 121. So, who's at short when Furcal can't play?
The Cardinals currently have two internal options: Ronny Cedeno (2B/SS, STL) and Pete Kozma (SS, STL). At age 30, Cedeno should be in his peak years. Last season that produced four homers and a .259 BA in 166 AB. He's primarily a ground ball hitter, and the speed that he displayed a few years ago has now faded below league average. Over the past two seasons, he's swiped only two bases with a 25% success rate.
After Furcal's injury in 2012, Kozma hit .349 in September, with two homers, two steals, and 14 RBI, fueled by a 43% hit rate. His 173 PX and 154 Spd were impressive. But Kozma's MLEs from AAA Memphis were much less optimistic: .189 BA, 55 PX, 74 Spd. But given his playoff performance, Kozma just might be the choice.
Someone worth watching in the Milwaukee camp is Michael Olmstead (RHP, MIL). Olmstead is a 6"7", 245 lb reliever who has been hitting 97 mph on the radar gun. He ended last season with AA-Portland in the Red Sox organization and posted a 13.9 Dom with 3.1 Ctl, although in a tiny 20 IP sample size. When Boston cut him from its 40-man roster, he was signed by Milwaukee. Thus far in camp, Olmsted has five strikeouts and two walks in 2.2 IP. If the Brewers decide to go with 13 pitchers to open the season, he might have a shot at making the roster, but given his limited experience at upper levels, he's more likely to return to the minors for more seasoning. But a strikeout rate like that gets people talking.
Update: In the competition to open the season at 1B until Corey Hart (1B/OF, MIL) is ready, Hunter Morris (1B, MIL) has started spring training 0 for 13, with five strikeouts. Alex Gonzalez' (SS, MIL) offensive skills and limitations are firmly established, while on the defensive side, he has handled 13 chances without an error.
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