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AL West: CF change coming in HOU?
May 16 2024
Six weeks into the season, the CF job remains a timeshare following Jake Meyers' pre-season vote of confidence from management. He hasn't posted all-star numbers through mid-May, but Meyers' .256/.318/.462 line (over 86 PA entering Tuesday, May 14) have been marginally credible, with some underlying metric support (.261 xBA, 118 HctX, 123 / 98 PX/xPX). His chase% and patience remain sub-par but Meyers' 76% ct% is also up a tad from 71% a year ago. And by all metrics, Meyers remains the club's best CF defender.
Courtesy of a ct%-fueled .303/.330/.416 line (through 94 PA), Mauricio Dubón has also made 16 CF starts, with both Chas McCormick and utility newcomer Joey Loperfido also picking up a handful of appearances. Meyers' 30 CF appearances leads the club to date, and among these names, he remains the favorite to be at this spot on most nights. But the Astros have legitimate offensive issues right now, and if you're scouting the Triple-A stat lines, longtime prospect Pedro Leon's significant tools may finally be translating into being audition-worthy in Houston.
About to turn 26, Leon's contact and BA issues have long kept him at AAA-Sugar Land (1200+ PA), but he currently owns a playable 23.8 K% along with a career-best .301 BA through 164 PA. The power/speed combo (8 HR, 12 SB) is still intact, and an 11.6 bb% is also intriguing. Following an aborted effort to turn him into an infield/OF utility, Leon has been used in CF and RF exclusively this season, with reportedly improved results. That he is Rule 5 eligible this winter may offer more reason for the club to see what they have in Leon sooner rather than later.
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The Rangers' rotation continues to pile up the injuries. The best news is that after landing on the IL with a strained shoulder just last week, Dane Dunning is playing catch again, reportedly feeling better and not expected to be out long. But the longer-term SP injury returns look murkier.
The earliest Nathan Eovaldi (strained groin) will begin throwing again is this weekend, with no hope that he'll return when first eligible later this week. Cody Bradford (rib stress fracture) began playing catch earlier this week, but the club still doesn't expect him back before mid-June. And following a minor league rehab start that raised hopes for a May return, Max Scherzer has paused his comeback from off-season back surgery due to forearm tightness and following a cortisone injection in his right thumb.
Minus these names, it means that José Ureña and Jack Leiter could get more starts. Urena has been fine in two starts (12 IP, three earned runs) with help from a sturdy GB% and weak opposing lineups. But Leiter's first three MLB starts (9 IP, 17 earned runs) have shown all who've watched that he shouldn't be pitching at this level right now. He's still a 24-year-old dynasty buy, but Leiter's upside seems far away.
Considering the potential injury returns of Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle, what this rotation might look after the All-Star break is anyone's guess; it will likely be in flux all season long. For now, only more injuries can likely keep Urena and Leiter in for too many more opportunities.
On a club with MLB's worst bullpen and wracked with position player injuries, the Angels' rotation health has been a relative plus. Though Chase Silseth landed on the IL with elbow inflammation after just two starts and isn't anticipated to return until mid-June at the earliest, all the rest of the club's starters have remained intact to date, including Silseth replacement and converted reliever José Soriano, whose big velocity and GB% have helped turn him into something of a revelation (3.72/3.50 ERA/xERA) despite a lofty BB%.
This may be the only good news for a club with a win/loss record (the AL's second-worst next to only CHW) that is spiraling downward and projects to be an early seller in looking toward 2025. Tyler Anderson's 2.92 ERA through eight starts and club control through 2025 could attract interest, even with the sketchy peripherals. Similarly, Patrick Sandoval has been on the upswing over his past three starts (18 IP, six earned runs, 20/3 K/BB) and is under club control through 2026.
Owners in keeper/dynasty formats looking toward the future should be watching (and rostering) precocious 20-year-old Caden Dana, who has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his first six starts at AA-Rocket City. The physical Dana (37 IP, 1.69 ERA, 32/5 K/BB) already throws in the mid-90s, with improving secondaries that project him to be an MLB innings-eater. Right now he appears to be on a fast track to Anaheim, be it this season or in 2025.
OF/DH Miguel Andujar will begin a minor league rehab stint this week that could take a while after he was shelved with a meniscus injury since the end of spring training. The club's best Cactus League hitter this past spring (15-for-42, 5 HR), Andujar has logged a lot of IL time in recent seasons. But he's also flashed plus bat-to-ball skills throughout his professional career – most notably in his rookie 2018 season, when he posted a .299/.329/.528 line with 27 HR for the Yankees and finished as the AL ROY runner-up to Shohei Ohtani.
Now 29, Andujar ended the spring without a strikeout and just one walk, illustrating both his historical strengths and weaknesses. But he has no minor league options remaining, and on a club that can always use another bat, he should be in OAK by early June – or be attracting free agent interest from at least a few clubs that are struggling offensively. If Andujar remains in OAK, it could mean the end of Seth Brown's (.524 OPS, 3 HR through 113 PA) time with OAK, but plenty can happen between now and then. Stay tuned.
Last week, along with Ty France's struggles, we briefly touched on the Mariners' overall woeful offense that entered Wednesday's games 24th in MLB scoring. France isn't SEA's only disappointment to date, and by no means the biggest. Second baseman Jorge Polanco is currently sitting on a .192/.298/.308 slash line with just 5 HR through 168 PA. Polanco's current 31% K% is the worst of his career, and he's now sat out the club's last two games with hamstring tightness, an injury that has dogged him in recent seasons.
At least for now, Polanco's absence has shifted Josh Rojas over to 2B, with Luis Urías getting more 3B reps off the bench. But Urias' .643 OPS to date hasn't offered appreciably more offense, leaving us to expect more changes should Polanco require an IL stint from here. With J.P. Crawford almost ready to return from his minor league rehab, the club could extend the playing time of his SS replacement, Dylan Moore, who owns a .792 OPS through 46 PA in May. or the recently-promoted Leonardo Rivas. The Mariners could also call up and offer opportunities to Samad Taylor or Ryan Bliss, both currently at AAA-Tacoma. Watch this.
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