AL East: Is slumping Verdugo's playing time at risk?
Jul 23 2024
New York has been without Giancarlo Stanton since June 23, though recent reports indicate that he may be bringing some much-needed thump to the team's lineup in the coming weeks. The Yankees are expected to decide by July 28 whether Stanton will be ready for game action, and whether a rehab assignment will be necessary before returning.
In Stanton’s absence, New York has been running a platoon of Trent Grisham (in center field with either Aaron Judge or Juan Soto moving to designated hitter) and Jahmai Jones (at designated hitter). In this time, Grisham has made a case for retaining a share of playing time as he’s been a slightly above-average hitter relative to the rest of the league (.263/.328/.439, 114 wRC+ in 64 PA since June 23), while providing plus defense in center field.
In that same time frame, Alex Verdugo has continued to scuffle at the plate (.165/.211/.247 in 85 PA), a continuation of his struggles since May 1 (.217/.256/.342 in 281 PA) which have brought his season line down to .231/.287/.371 in 401 PA. While New York has continued to stay committed to giving Verdugo regular at-bats, Stanton's return and recent performance trends could put his playing time at risk.
Even if Verdugo does not get supplanted by Grisham, his hold on playing time against left-handed pitching should be considered tenuous when Stanton returns. Verdugo’s career-long struggles against left-handed pitching have continued this season (.198/.282/.281 in 110 PA). Meanwhile, Jones has flashed strong numbers against lefties in a limited sample (.350/.409/.650 in 22 PA) and could conceivably receive at-bats in left field against lefties in favor of Verdugo.
As New York tries to bolster its offense before the trade deadline, it is also possible that the team explores alternatives to Verdugo in left field via trade, especially given his continued struggles at the plate.
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Over the weekend, Toronto welcomed back Yimi García to its bullpen, which has been in flux since the likely season-ending injury to Jordan Romano. While it is unclear if García will have a full share of the closer role upon his return (Chad Green notably recorded a save on Sunday, with García not appearing after pitching the previous day), he is expected to figure prominently in the team’s late-inning plans. However, as Toronto trends more and more towards positioning themselves as sellers at the trade deadline (0.8% chance to make the playoffs as of this writing, according to FanGraphs), García, a pending free agent, is a strong candidate to be traded in the coming weeks.
Trade rumors have also been prevalent with some of Toronto’s other late-inning options. Green, who had been filling the closer role while García was sidelined, is signed through 2025 but could be a valuable asset to a contending team’s bullpen, particularly if the team values his extra year of team control. Trevor Richards, who has also seen some late-inning work for Toronto, is also considered a likely candidate to be moved as a pending free agent after this season.
Following the All-Star break, Toronto welcomed back Erik Swanson, who entered the year as the team’s presumed top set-up option before beginning the year on the IL. While Swanson struggled in the first month following his demotion to Triple-A (10 IP, 15.30 ERA, -1.7 K-BB% from May 30 through June 30), his performance rebounded in July (5.1 IP, 3.37 ERA, 18.2 K-BB%), prompting a return to the major league bullpen. Swanson threw a perfect inning on July 20 against Detroit in his first appearance after the promotion. While there is an outside chance that Swanson, who will enter his final year of arbitration next season, could also be traded, his performance thus far this year seems likely to cause Toronto to keep him and try to reestablish his trade value, making him a prime candidate to see late-inning work if Toronto trades several relievers.
Besides Swanson, Nate Pearson is the most likely reliever to see work in the late innings if Toronto sells. Pearson, who is under team control through 2026, has seen some work in the late innings this year, recording seven holds. While Pearson’s surface stats are less-than-inspiring (5.54, 1.50 WHIP), he has shown significantly better skills than the results would indicate (3.79 xERA, 20.7 K-BB%).
Baltimore shuffled its rotation before the All-Star break, optioning Cade Povich to AAA-Norfolk for what the team deemed to be a “reset." Coming out of the break, Baltimore also indicated that Cole Irvin, who has split time between the rotation and bullpen this year, is expected to remain in the bullpen, leaving a rotation spot unaccounted for.
While it seems that Baltimore is likely to add at least one starting pitcher before the trade deadline, a failure to do so would further test the team's starting pitching depth, with no clear candidates for a callup standing out at the moment.
Chayce McDermott seemed to be making a strong case for a callup with a dominant stretch (36 IP, 3.00 ERA, 30.9 K%, 11.4 BB%) from June 1 through July 1. However, McDermott’s recent performance has been extremely uneven, weakening his case for a callup. In his last three starts, the right-hander sandwiched a dominant outing (6.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 4 BB on July 12) between two disastrous outings (0.1 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 0 K, 3 BB on July 6 and 1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 K, 0 BB on July 19).
After missing time with a hamstring injury, Bruce Zimmermann recently returned to AAA-Norfolk’s rotation. In two starts there, Zimmermann has failed to show that he is worthy of a callup in the not-so-distant future (7.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 7 K, 6 BB).
Tucker Davidson, who began the year in AAA-Norfolk’s bullpen in a relief role, has been stretched out as a starter since mid-May and has been a solid performer at the Triple-A level. Since his first start with Norfolk on May 17, Davidson has made 11 appearances (six starts, five relief appearances), compiling a 2.91 ERA in 46.1 IP, and flashing decent skills (24.4 K%, 5.7 BB%). While Baltimore is exceedingly likely to explore outside options rather than commit to Davidson, he could be a viable option to get the Orioles through stretches where the team needs innings, either in spot starts or in a multi-inning relief role.
Tampa Bay continues to straddle the line between buyer and seller (17.3% chance to make the playoffs as of this writing, according to FanGraphs). The team’s imminent rotation plans changed on Sunday due to Ryan Pepiot being placed on the IL with a knee infection. The placement of Pepiot on the IL should eventually allow Tampa Bay to continue using a five-man rotation upon the anticipated return of Jeffrey Springs. However, Springs is expected to need at least one more rehab start, so the team will need to fill his rotation spot at least once more in the meantime.
As trade rumors continue to spiral about Zach Eflin and Zack Littell, the team’s rotation depth may be tested even further in the coming weeks depending on Pepiot’s recovery, Springs' return, and the team’s actions at the trade deadline.
As things currently stand, the most likely pitcher in Tampa Bay’s minor league system to fill a rotation role if a need arises is Tyler Alexander, who began the year in the team’s rotation before being demoted to AAA-Durham on May 31. Since being demoted to Triple-A, Alexander has put together middling results (4.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) with decent strikeout skills (21.9 K%) while limiting walks (4.0 BB%).
Besides Alexander, the most viable option on Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster is Jacob Lopez. Overall, Lopez has had a solid season by results (41 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) in Triple-A while showing decent skills (17.3 K-BB%). In six starts since the beginning of June, though, Lopez’s results have improved, as he’s compiled a 2.66 ERA in 23.2 IP while his skills have been similar to the rest of his season (17.3 K-BB%).
Joe Rock, who was acquired by Tampa Bay from Colorado in March, has spent the entire season in AAA-Durham’s rotation. Rock seemed to be making a strong case for a callup based on his early season performance (57 IP, 3.32 ERA, 19.8 K-BB% through June 9). However, since June 15, Rock’s performance has dipped in five appearances (23.2 IP, 7.99 ERA, 3.3 K-BB%), weakening his case for a callup.
Depending on the length of Pepiot's absence, Drew Rasmussen could also factor into the team's rotation plans while he is sidelined. However, Rasmussen threw just 15 pitches in his first rehab start for AAA-Durham on July 21, so indications are that his rehab assignment will be fairly lengthy, similar to Springs'.
The recent demotion of Enmanuel Valdez opened up more playing time for David Hamilton, who has started seven of Boston’s nine games since Valdez’s demotion (five starts in five games vs. RHP, two starts in four games vs. LHP). Overall, Hamilton has been a strong fantasy asset, largely due to his stolen base output. Since June 1, Hamilton has put together a slightly below-average offensive performance (.259/.303/.402). While Hamilton’s playing time looks safe for now, there is still a chance Boston could explore several alternatives in the coming weeks.
Boston’s presumed second baseman to open the year, Vaughn Grissom, recently began a rehab assignment for AAA-Worcester, where he will look to prove he can be an everyday player for the Red Sox. After beginning the year on the IL due to a strained hamstring, Grissom returned to Boston’s lineup on May 2. However, after notably getting sick toward the end of his rehab assignment and losing a significant amount of muscle, he never looked right in his brief major league stint (.148/.207/.161 in 87 PA). He was subsequently placed on the IL on June 2.
Despite Grissom’s presumed starting role to open the year, manager Alex Cora has declined to say that Grissom would be guaranteed a full-time role upon his return. When asked about what would determine the decision, Cora stated, “We talked to him last week and there’s a lot that’s going to happen in between the lines. But there’s a lot that’s going to happen before the game, as far as the offensive part of it, the defensive part of it. It’s just all-in.”
Boston could also look to give itself other options at second base, either in the trade market or in its minor league system. Most notably, Nick Yorke has been making a strong case for getting a chance at the major league level with his recent performance at Triple-A. Since joining AAA-Worcester on June 5, Yorke has been among the best performers at the Triple-A level, hitting .325/.422/.516 in 147 PA.
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