The Effects of the Noelvi Marte suspension

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BaseballHQ

Mar 11 2024 8:19am

The Effects of the Noelvi Marte suspension

BaseballHQ

Mar 11 2024

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Cincinnati Reds
NEWS: Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games for testing positive for PEDs.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: Marte was in line to see a lion’s share of PT at third base, but this news will cut into that projection significantly (-50%.) Christian Encarnacion-Strand will likely see his first base role solidified (+15%), with Jeimer Candelario moving to an everyday role at third. Spencer Steer will likely see more work at the corner infield spots as well.
–Larson

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Los Angeles Dodgers
NEWS: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced that IF/OF Mookie Betts will now be the Dodgers starting SS, with IF/OF Gavin Lux moving over to 2B.
IMPACT: High
BHQ SPIN: The 24-year old Lux was expected to be the Dodgers starting SS this season after missing the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL in spring training. He has struggled in the field this spring, particularly with making throws to 1B and will move back to the position where he played 122 games in 2022. We project Lux for about 460 AB, mostly against righties against whom he hit .280/.351/.413 in 2022. Other than adding SS eligibility, this doesn’t have much of an impact on Betts, as we continue to project him for about 565 AB, about 85% at SS and 10% in the OF.

This change will likely have the largest impact on SS Miguel Rojas, who was expected to see time at SS against left-handed pitchers, against whom he has had much better success (.275/.339/.399) over the last three years than against righties (.235/.282/.327). He saw 10 games at 1B with the Marlins in 2022, so could see time there when Freddie Freeman gets a rare day off. We are projecting him for about 20% playing time. Super utility players Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernández are expected to see additional time at 2B against lefties.
–Gannon

Pittsburgh Pirates
NEWS: The Pirates signed LHP Eric Lauer to a minor league contract.
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN: In 46.2 IP with MIL in 2023, Lauer posted a 6.56 ERA with 43 K/24 BB. The Pirates are hoping Lauer looks more like the 2022 or 2021 version where he posted a 3.20 ERA/4.21 xERA and 3.20/4.36, respectively. If he gets near that form, he could latch on as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. Right now, he’ll join Luis L. Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras, Jared Jones, Quinn Priester and Josh Fleming in that battle.
–Green

Los Angeles Dodgers
NEWS: Dodgers RHP Emmet Sheehan will start the season on the IL with shoulder soreness, but did throw a bullpen session on Saturday, March 9.
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN: The 24-year old Sheehan made his major league debut last season, pitching to a 4.95 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 60 IP over 13 appearances. His high minor league K% continued with the Dodgers where he struck out 25% of the batters he faced, but he will need to improve upon his 10% BB% to reach his potential as a starter. With RHP Walker Buehler expected to miss at least the few weeks of the season, Sheehan has been competing With RHP Gavin Stone and RHP Michael Grove for the final spot in the Opening Day rotation. While Stone and Grove are the favorites to take the spot, manager Dave Roberts indicated that LHP Kyle Hurt and LHP Ryan Yarbrough are also in the mix. While Hurt is one of the Dodgers top prospects, he has made just one major league appearance and Yarbrough is one of just two lefties slated for the Opening Day bullpen, so Stone or Grove is likely to get the first opportunity in the rotation. With the Dodgers expecting to go with a 6-day rotation and several starters either oft-injured or coming off injuries, all of these pitchers should see time this season.
–Gannon

Los Angeles Dodgers
NEWS: Dodgers RHP Brusdar Graterol is dealing with shoulder discomfort and hip tightness and won’t travel with the team to South Korea for the first two games of the season.
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN: Graterol was one of the league’s best high leverage relief pitchers last season, pitching to a 1.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 19 holds and 7 saves in 67 IP. While he doesn’t strike out as many batters as most late-inning relievers (18% K%), Graterol relies on excellent control (4% BB%) and an elite groundball rate (63%) and is currently projected to serve in the same late-inning role this season. Graterol is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday, March 12, with a timeline for his return uncertain at this point. The Dodgers have several veteran mid-late inning arms in their bullpen, with RHP Joe Kelly, RHP Ryan Brasier and LHP Alex Vesia all likely to see additional late inning opportunities if Graterol misses time after the South Korea series.
–Gannon

Chicago Cubs
NEWS: Chicago optioned OF Pete Crow-Armstrong to AAA-Iowa.
IMPACT: Low
BHQ SPIN: We had anticipated that Crow-Armstrong would likely begin the year in the minors following the signing of Cody Bellinger, so we’ve only given his projected playing time a small decrease, leaving a significant portion in anticipation of a midseason call-up. Unless Ian Happ, who has been slowed by a hamstring strain, is not ready by Opening Day, Chicago is expected to open the year with Happ, Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki as regulars in the outfield. Chicago’s probable corner infield arrangement of Christopher Morel at third base and a platoon of Michael Busch and Patrick Wisdom at first base should also allow the team to use a floating designated hitter, with Mike Tauchman getting the majority of at-bats against right-handed pitching and one of Nick Madrigal (who has also been slowed by a hamstring strain), Garrett Cooper, or Alexander Canario getting the majority of at-bats against left-handed pitching.
–Williams

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas Rangers
NEWS: Rangers 1B Nathaniel Lowe is likely to miss Opening Day with a right oblique strain.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: Lowe says he strained the muscle hitting, although he also noted it wasn’t a single event, but more of a “wear and tear” injury. The initial prognosis for Lowe is three to four weeks recovery time, although oblique strains have a way of lingering. Regardless, it puts Opening Day in serious jeopardy for the 2022 Silver Slugger and 2023 Gold Glove-winning 1B, and we cut Lowe’s previously very high 95% PT estimate by 10 percent to reflect that. TEX says they’ll fill the spot internally, mentioning former Angel Jared Walsh, 25-year-old prospect Justin Foscue, and UT Ezequiel Duran as possible fill-ins. Duran may need to begin the year at SS for the rehabbing Corey Seager, which may open the door for both Walsh and Foscue to open with the big club. Walsh is trying to come back from headaches, insomnia, and fatigue that stemmed from a neurological disorder that felled him in 2023, but he was an All-Star as recently as 2021. Meanwhile, Foscue’s MiLB profile shows a hitter with gap power (31 doubles and 53 xBH in 2023 at AAA Round Rock) and excellent strike-zone control, as he walked more than he struck out at Round Rock (85 BB, 75 K in 563 PA). But Foscue is dealing with some side soreness of his own, so nothing’s assured at this point.
–Truesdell

Seattle Mariners
NEWS: Seattle signed RHP Ryne Stanek to a 1-year deal pending a physical.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: With a trio of relievers currently banged up (Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, and Jackson Kowar), the Mariners have landed the top reliever left on the market. Stanek had a good run in Houston from 2021-2023 compiling a 2.90 ERA with 196 strikeouts in 173.2 innings. His 2023 wasn’t quite as successful as previous years though, where he had a 4.09 ERA (5.03 xERA), 1.26 WHIP, and a 23% strikeout percentage. His outlook for this season is close to those same numbers with a 3.88 ERA/1.35 WHIP. Depending on how the injuries to other relievers shake out, at least in the early part of the season Stanek could be used in high leverage situations. We’ve added a few innings and holds for Stanek and removed innings from some of the more fringe guys currently in camp.
–Davison

Tampa Bay Rays
NEWS: Rays outfielder Jonny Deluca sustained a broken right hand when he was struck by a pitch thrown by Boston RHP Garrett Whitlock on March 10.
IMPACT: Medium
BHQ SPIN: DeLuca is expected to miss at least four to six weeks due to the injury, though that timeframe could be revised once he is further evaluated by team doctors. Deluca had not been a lock to open the season on the major league roster. Instead, he was believed to be in a three-way battle with infielder Curtis Mead and outfielder/second baseman Richie Palacios for the final spot. As part of the Rays’ decision-making process, Tampa has given free agent signee Amed Rosario some time in the outfield, and the team has reportedly been pleased with the results, which may have given Mead the edge to join Rosario and Harold Ramírez on the bench even had DeLuca still been in the mix. Now, it may be a heads-up battle between Mead and Palacios until DeLuca heals, with Palacios’ ability to play the outfield not necessarily a deciding advantage.
–Olson