DOUBLE DIPPIN': September 18-24

Daily Matchups

Brian Rudd

Sep 16 2017 11:03pm

DOUBLE DIPPIN': September 18-24

Brian Rudd

Sep 16 2017

The number of two-start pitchers is lower than usual this week. Just seven teams have a full seven-game slate, while several teams have made the move to a six-man rotation at this point in the season. There likely aren't too many attractive options on your waiver wire, Germán Márquez may have been dropped in some shallower leagues following two shaky outings, and is certainly worth grabbing if he happens to be available. Further down the list are some pitchers that are readily available in most leagues, followed by some notes on their matchups. As always, the full list of matchups for the week can be found in our 8-day scan.

Lock 'em In

Lg         Pitcher       Team       Opponents       Ratings
==   =================   ====   ==============   ============
NL   Clayton Kershaw       LA   at PHI, vs SF     0.37, 0.82
AL   Marcus Stroman       TOR   vs KC, vs NYY     0.38, 0.02
NL   Gio González         WAS   at ATL, at NYM   -0.13, 0.60
NL   Patrick Corbin       ARI   at SD, vs MIA    -0.31, -0.39

Likely Worth Using

Lg         Pitcher       Team        Opponents       Ratings
==   =================   ====   ==============   ============
NL   Jon Lester           CHC   at TAM, at MIL   -0.45, -0.44
AL   Mike Clevinger       CLE   at LAA, at SEA    0.05, -0.14
AL   Dylan Bundy          BAL   vs BOS, vs TAM   -0.41, -0.28
AL   Ervin Santana        MIN   at NYY, at DET   -0.30, -0.16
AL   José Berríos         MIN   at NYY, at DET   -1.08, -0.95
NL   Chase Anderson       MIL   at PIT, vs CHC   -0.30,

Carry Some Risk

Lg         Pitcher       Team       Opponents       Ratings
==   =================   ====   ==============   ============
NL   Germán Márquez       COL   at SF, at SD     -0.76, -0.92
AL   Blake Snell          TAM   vs CHC, at BAL   -0.33, -1.13
AL   Doug Fister          BOS   at BAL, at CIN   -0.19, -0.16
AL   Lucas Giolito        CHW   at HOU, vs KC    -1.20, 0.00
AL   Mike Leake           SEA   vs TEX, vs CLE   -0.24, -0.60
NL   Luis Perdomo          SD   vs ARI, vs COL   -0.83, -0.87
NL   Brent Suter          MIL   at PIT, vs CHC   -0.75, -0.11
NL   Luiz Gohara          ATL   at WAS, vs PHI   
NL   Nick Pivetta         PHI   vs LA, at ATL    -0.35, -0.97
NL   Dan Straily          MIA   vs NYM, at ARI   -1.21, -0.72
AL   Martín Pérez         TEX   at SEA, at OAK   -1.01, -0.91
AL   Buck Farmer          DET   vs OAK, vs MIN   -1.16, -1.50
AL   Sam Gaviglio          KC   at TOR, at CHW
AL   Jharel Cotton        OAK   at DET, vs TEX   -1.04, -1.39
AL   Tyler Skaggs         LAA   vs CLE, at HOU   -1.23, -0.50

Germán Márquez (RHP, COL) is someone we've talked up recently in both a Buyers Guide column and Facts/Flukes, due to his ability to keep the ball down and miss bats. He's struggled in his past two starts, on the road against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, allowing a total of six earned runs and 20 base runners in just 7.2 innings. This looks like a get right spot for Marquez, though, as he'll face the two lowest ranking teams in OPS against RHP, as well as in home games. Further helping his case is the fact that San Diego strikes out the second most against righties. Grab him now if he's available.

Blake Snell (LHP, TAM) has been more good than bad lately, resulting in a 3.28 ERA, 8.1 Dom, and 106 BPV over the past month. The Cubs own the fourth highest OPS against LHP, and more importantly, the second highest BB%, which could put his shaky 4.1 Ctl to the test. The free-swinging Orioles rank dead last in BB% vs lefties, but top 10 in OPS against them. Snell does have some blowup potential, particularly in the first start, but also probably offers more upside than anyone below him on this list.

Before getting knocked around in his last start, Doug Fister (RHP, BOS) had been on a nice little roll, giving up a total of five earned runs in 30 innings over his previous four starts. He's posted a 3.49 ERA in six away games (four starts), compared to a 4.93 ERA in nine games (eight starts) at home, but his road success has been greatly aided by an 18 percent hit rate. Fister is throwing a little harder and getting more strikeouts than usual, but his Ctl is a career high 3.7. Baltimore's league worst BB% vs RHP will work in his favor, and his 51 percent ground ball rate should help him continue to keep the ball in the park.

Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) has looked pretty good through his first five starts, posting a 2.56 ERA, and recording double digit swinging strikes on four occasions. His 4.19 xERA shows he hasn't been quite that strong, and he won't offer a ton of K upside, as both opponents rank in the bottom four in K% vs RHP. The Astros, meanwhile, own the highest OPS in the majors vs RHP, but luckily, Kansas City ranks in the bottom 10 in that category.

Mike Leake (RHP, SEA) had a 6.94 ERA in 10 starts during his final two months in St. Louis, but has quickly turned things around since being traded to Seattle, where he's allowed five earned runs in 18.2 innings through three starts. He shut down the Rangers in his last outing, and will face them again to kick off this week, before the red-hot Indians come to town. Both opponents rank in the top five in runs and OPS over the past month, so despite the fact Leake will be in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, keeping the hot streak going will be a challenge.

Luiz Gohara (LHP, ATL) bounced back from a rough big league debut to hold Washington to one run over six innings in his last start. He posted a 10.7 Dom across three levels in the minors this season, and has struck out 12 in 10 innings with a 16 percent SwK in his first two starts in the majors. A rematch with the Nationals is up next for Gohara, and despite his success against them the first time, doing so again won't be easy, as they sport the seventh highest OPS vs LHP. The Phillies, who rank seventh from the bottom in that category, would be up next, though the potential return of Mike Foltynewicz after one skipped start could push Gohara back. His lack of experience and the uncertainty regarding his second start makes him risky, but the swing and miss stuff is certainly intriguing.

Dan Straily (RHP, MIA) has been struggling for the better part of the past two months, putting up a 5.92 ERA in his last 11 starts. A 36 percent hit rate has played a role, but he's hurt himself with a rising fly ball rate, which has led to a 1.8 hr/9 during his rough patch. The Mets are above average for the season in terms of OPS, ISO, and wRC+ against RHP, but are missing several of their most productive bats at this point. The trip to Arizona could prove dangerous, as the Diamondbacks own the second highest OPS in home games, as well as against righties.

Buck Farmer (RHP, DET) has flashed some strikeout potential at times this season, such as his first start, in which he induced 23 swings and misses, and his last start, when he struck out seven Indian batters in four innings. Some tough luck, along with a 45 percent fly ball rate, have inflated his ERA up to 6.62, though. Farmer will start the week against an Oakland team with the fourth highest K% against RHP, but their league-leading .203 ISO vs righties shows they can take advantage of fly ball pitchers. Minnesota is middle of the pack in most categories vs RHP, but have been swinging the bat well lately, with the third highest OPS and fourth lowest K% in September.

Jharel Cotton (RHP, OAK) has been a major disappointment this season, recording a 5.81 ERA through 23 starts. Detroit poses a decent matchup for him, as they boast the sixth lowest OPS against RHP, and are tied for the third fewest runs in the majors over the past month. Texas looks a lot tougher on paper, and Cotton has had mixed results against them this season, tossing six shutout innings against them a few weeks ago after they touched him up for five runs in 5.1 innings back in April. The truth is, he's going to be a risky play for the remainder of 2017 regardless of matchup.

Tyler Skaggs (LHP, LAA) has posted a 4.65 ERA in eight starts since returning from an oblique injury, and though his 8.0 Dom is solid, his eight percent SwK is less impressive. Things won't get any easier for him this week, as both opponents rank in the top five in wRC+ vs LHP, and bottom three in K% against them. Considering they own the two best records in the American League, recording wins won't be easy, either. All told, Skaggs looks like a pretty risky play for the upcoming week.

Extremely Risky

Lg         Pitcher       Team       Opponents       Ratings
==   =================   ====   ==============   =============
NL   Jackson Stephens     CIN   vs STL, vs BOS   -0.67, -0.88
NL   Matt Harvey          NYM   at MIA, vs WAS   -1.93, -0.93
AL   Chad Bell            DET   vs OAK, vs MIN   -1.56, -1.95

Looking Ahead

Sometimes, you have to be a step ahead of the game when looking to acquire a player, so it can help to look ahead a little bit. Here is a list of some pitchers that may be available, at least in some mixed leagues, who as of now, are lined up for a two-start week beginning next Monday, Sept. 25. These are subject to change, but we will go into more depth on some of these matchups in next week's column.

Lg         Pitcher       Team       Opponents
==   =================   ====   ==============
AL   Josh Tomlin          CLE   vs MIN, vs CHW
NL   Seth Lugo            NYM   vs ATL, at PHI
AL   Ricky Nolasco        LAA   at CHW, vs SEA
AL   Jakob Junis           KC   at NYY, vs ARI
AL   Daniel Gossett       OAK   vs SEA, at TEX
AL   Daniel Mengden       OAK   vs SEA, at TEX