(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Sale the top option on Friday

Daily Matchups

Sam Grant

May 12 2016 11:02pm

(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Sale the top option on Friday

Sam Grant

May 12 2016

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2016 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, wildcards, or strong sits and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP at the bottom of the column.

Note that as of Opening Day 2016, the Matchup Scores are now being driven from the new PQS scoring system. That change has had a significant effect on the traditional range of scores, some of which is addressed in a subsequent PQS column.

Using the new PQS system, scores are centered around 0.0 (league average). Ratings of 1.00 or better constitute a strong start; ratings between -0.99 and +0.99 are in the "wild card: range; ratings of -1.00 or worse are strong sits.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you maximize your SP utilization.

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Today's schedule overview: Fifteen games take place on Friday, with play beginning at 2:20 PM ET in Wrigley Field with PIT/CHC. The rest of the slate begins at 7:05 PM. The Braves gain a DH in Kansas City in the lone interleague matchup today. Rain could be a factor for PIT/CHC, CHW/NYY, HOU/BOS, and ATL/KC, so be sure to check updated reports before setting lineups today.

***

Strong Starts

League  SP                   Own Team  Opp Team  Opp SP               Rating
======  ===================  ========  ========  ===================  =======
AL      Chris Sale              CHW      @NYY    Luis Severino           +1.86
AL      Edinson Vólquez        @KC        ATL    Julio Teheran           +1.70
NL      Julio Teheran           ATL      @KC     Edinson Vólquez         +1.67
AL      Rich Hill               OAK      @TAM    Jake Odorizzi           +1.21
NL      Brandon Finnegan        CIN      @PHI    Jeremy Hellickson       +1.00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Edinson Vólquez (RHP, KC) has a matchup rating of 1.70 in his home start against a dreadful Braves lineup that is averaging 3.0 runs per game. Volquez's small platoon split (.740 career OPS vs. L and .729 career OPS vs. R) will be helpful against a Braves lineup that will likely include seven or eight left-handed hitters.

Rich Hill (LHP, OAK) has a 2.03 ERA and 3.9 Cmd since his return to the majors last September. He receives the Strong Start designation thanks to this run of good outings and an favorable matchup against the Rays, who are tied for the second fewest Runs Scored in the AL through Wednesday. As Stephen Nickrand noted while reviewing April BPV leaders, Hill's Ctl and FpK are the chink in the armor of the new version of Rich Hill.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) will have to deal with the DH as goes on the road to face the defending world champs in Kansas City. The will be his first career start against the Royals. Teheran has elevated his FpK to 63% in the early going, which would be his highest mark since 2013 and is a sign his Ctl rate could be headed toward the lower 2s level he displayed during his first two full MLB seasons. Teheran has consistently struggled against lefties across his career to the tune of an oOPS of .803, making Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, and Alex Gordon a speculative DFS stack in tournaments.

Brandon Finnegan (LHP, CIN) matches up against the meager Phillies offense tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Finnegan's had PQS-DIS starts in four of his last five starts. He did strike out nine Phillies in the first start of his season on April 6, and the Phillies' struggles against LHP (.607 OPS) are the primary driver of this favorable rating for Finnegan.

Wildcards

League  SP                   Own Team  Opp Team  Opp SP                Rating
======  ===================  ========  ========  ===================   =======
AL      Chris Tillman          @BAL       DET    Justin Verlander        +0.89
NL      Junior Guerra          @MIL       SD     Andrew Cashner          +0.89
AL      Jake Odorizzi          @TAM       OAK    Rich Hill               +0.75
AL      Ricky Nolasco           MIN      @CLE    Josh Tomlin             +0.67
AL      Steven Wright          @BOS       HOU    Lance McCullers         +0.64
AL      Nathan Karns           @SEA       LAA    Nicholas Tropeano       +0.33
NL      Gio González           @WAS       MIA    Tom Koehler             +0.33
NL      Michael Wacha           STL      @LA     Ross Stripling          -0.08
AL      Josh Tomlin           @CLE        MIN    Ricky Nolasco           -0.23
NL      Jeff Samardzija        SF        @ARI    Shelby Miller           -0.25
AL      Martín Pérez          @TEX        TOR    R.A. Dickey             -0.50
AL      Matt Harvey            NYM       @COL    Jonathan Gray           -0.56
NL      Jeremy Hellickson     @PHI        CIN    Brandon Finnegan        -0.61
NL      Luis Severino         @NYY        CHW    Chris Sale              -0.77
AL      Jason Hammel          @CHC        PIT    Francisco Liriano       -0.79
NL      Andrew Cashner         SD        @MIL    Junior Guerra           -0.82
NL      Ross Stripling        @LA        STL     Michael Wacha           -0.87
AL      Nicholas Tropeano      LAA       @SEA    Nathan Karns            -0.88

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chris Tillman (RHP, BAL) faces a Tigers offense that has the third-highest OPS vs. R in the AL. Tillman's 12% SwK is four percentage points higher than his career average of 8% and it has led to a 9.4 Dom, which would be a career high. Tillman has achieved this by increasing his slider/cutter usage (the pitch is classified as a cutter by Brooks Baseball, but Tillman and batterymate Matt Wieters call it a slider) from below 10% throughout his career to 16% so far this year. Batters have been unable to connect with the cutter, as 44% swings fail to connect with the pitch. Tillman's struck out at least seven batters in his last three starts and the slider gives him a strong weapon with which to extend this streak.

Jake Odorizzi (RHP, TAM) has been boom or bust in 2016, as reflected in his 43% DOM% and 43 DIS% through seven starts. His 3.76 xERA and 103 BPV suggest the truth lies somewhere in the middle. After accruing the second-highest FB% in 2014 at 49%, Odorizzi has been able to hold his flyball rate to 42% this year after posting a 41% mark last season. While he still has a flyball tilt, he has decreased his exposure to bad stretches of hr/f luck.

Ricky Nolasco (RHP, MIN) takes the mound in Cleveland in an AL Central matchup. Nolasco has a 6.8 Cmd on the year, but his 58% FpK and his 34% ball% suggest his 1.2 Ctl is likely to regress towards his career average of 2.1. Nolasco tossed a PQS-4 in his start against the Indians on April 26.

Luis Severino (RHP, NYY) has an ugly 6.12 ERA and 67% DIS% in 2016 as he heads into his Friday night start in the Bronx against the White Sox. The righty's Dom and SwK have shown modest declines relative to his 11 MLB starts in 2015, but Severino's biggest nemesis has been the longball. He has given up five homers across his last two starts and has a 1.9 hr/9 despite his low 25% fly ball rate. This is Severino's second career start against the White Sox; he posted a PQS-2 against them last season.

Steven Wright (RHP, BOS) has had a stellar start to 2016, throwing PQS-DOM starts in four of his first six starts. The knuckleballer looks to continue his run of success in Fenway Park. While Wright's BPV of 75 so far is unremarkable, his FpK is strong at 63%. He shutout the Astros over 6.2 innings earlier this year on his way to a PQS-4 outing.

Nathan Karns (RHP, SEA) matches up against the Angels in a home start at Safeco Field. The Angels are sporting the lowest OPS in the AL. Karns' average fastball velocity is up 1.2 mph relative to last year and his SwK has increased by two percentage points, both of which support the 9.9 Dom he's posted thus far in 2016.

Josh Tomlin (RHP, CLE) is a perfect 5-0 through his first five starts and looks to make it a perfect 6-0 in tonight's showdown against the Twins. Only Clayton Kershaw has a better Ctl rate that Tomlin. Of course, Tomlin requires this pinpoint control to remain a viable option given his 5.9 Dom and 1.4 career hr/9. The Twins bats have been ice cold the last two weeks, as they sport the lowest OPS in the AL during this time period.

Martín Pérez (LHP, TEX) faces the Blue Jays at home in Texas. Perez's 24% H% has allowed him to dance around the high volume of free passes he's issued this season. Perez has walked at least two batters in each of his starts on the way to a 5.0 Ctl. The Blue Jays' 9.8 BB% is 2nd in the AL.

Nicholas Tropeano (RHP, LAA) has thrown 83% PQS-DEC starts this season and has an away start in Seattle. Tropeano has displayed a promising 14% SwK and 10.2 Dom, but his 4.8 Ctl has prevented him from completing six innings in any of his starts this year. A 62% FpK does hint at the prospect for Tropeano to improve his Ctl. He tossed a PQS-3 in his lone start agains thte Mariners this season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Junior Guerra (RHP, MIL) makes the third major league start of his career against the Padres at home. The 30-year-old journeyman has thrown two PQS-DEC starts since receiving the call from AAA-Colorado Springs. His favorable matchup rating of 0.89 reflects these starts and a Padres offense that is in the bottom third of the NL by Runs Scored this season. Last season, Guerra had an MLEs of a 4.80 ERA and 58 BPV in 83 IP in the high minors; however, he did post the highest Dom in the Triple-A International League among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, suggesting he could be a serviceable back-end starter.

Gio González (LHP, WAS) takes on the Marlins in a home start at Nationals Park. Gonzalez has ridden a 26% hit rate and 81 S% to a 2.19 ERA in the early going. But, his xERA, SwK, velocity, and Dom would all be his worst marks of the past five seasons, were the season to end today. He dominated weak offenses in his first four starts (Atlanta, Minnesota, and Philadelphia twice) before tossing a PQS-2 against the Royals and PQS-0 against the Cubs and only striking out three batters total in these two starts.

Michael Wacha (RHP, STL) opposes the Dodgers on the road. Wacha has yet to throw a PQS-DIS this season. Wacha's career road ERA of 3.84 is over a run higher than his 2.61 ERA in home starts.

Jeff Samardzija (RHP, SF) has a road start against the NL West rival Diamondbacks. Samardzija's Dom has returned to his career-average mark of 8.2 early on in 2016 after he posted only a 6.9 Dom during 2015. The Diamondbacks are fifth in the NL in OPS. The righty's posted four consecutive PQS+ (i.e. PQS>3) starts.

Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM) starts for the Mets in Coors Field tonight. Harvey. has yet to throw a PQS-DOM outing after posting a 55% PQS-DOM rate last season. His velocity is down and Ctl has risen to 2.9 from the 1.6 and 1.8 marks he posted during 2013 and 2015. Given Harvey's rough start to the season and the effects of thin air in Denver, leaving him on your bench could be a smart play in daily transactions leagues.

Jeremy Hellickson (RHP, PHI) takes the bump in a start at home against the Reds. Hellickson had a 132 BPV in April, which was the tenth best mark among NL starters. He's been victimized by a 22% hr/f, leading to a 4.91 ERA that has masked his skills improvement. Hellickson threw a PQS-DOM against Cincinnati in his season opener.

Jason Hammel (RHP, CHC) brings a 4-0 record into an afternoon contest against the Pirates. Hammel has averaged a PQS-2 against the Pirates dating back to the beginning of 2015. He's enjoyed a career 3.34 ERA in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.

Andrew Cashner (RHP, SD) faces the Brewers on the road. Cashner posted a 4.74 ERA on the road in 2015 and he's throw PQS-DIS starts in three of his seven starts this season. Cashner left his start on Sunday due to a hamstring cramp and is questionable for tonight's start.

Ross Stripling (RHP, LA) is averaging a PQS score of 2.5 through his first six MLB starts. This will be his first career start against the Cardinals as he opposes his college teammate at Texas A&M, Michael Wacha. With a 3.77 xERA, Stripling is playable in the right matchup. The Cardinals, who are second in Runs Scored in the NL behind only the Cubs, are not such a matchup.

Strong Sits and default rankings 

League  SP                   Own Team  Opp Team  Opp SP                Rating
======  ===================  ========  ========  ===================   =======
NL      Tom Koehler            MIA       @WAS    Gio González            -1.10
NL      Francisco Liriano      PIT       @CHC    Jason Hammel            -1.25
NL      Jonathan Gray         @COL        NYM    Matt Harvey             -1.50
NL      Shelby Miller         @ARI        SF     Jeff Samardzija         -2.11
AL      R.A. Dickey            TOR       @TEX    Martín Pérez            -2.33
AL      Justin Verlander       DET       @BAL    Chris Tillman           -2.36
AL      Lance McCullers        HOU       @BOS    Steven Wright            (**)

(**) - default rating

Shelby Miller (RHP, ARI) has yet to throw a PQS+ start this season and has a 6.06 xERA. Miller has more walks than strikeouts and is a must-sit until he can regain his control and show signs of a turnaround.

Justin Verlander (RHP, DET) has been inconsistent in 2016, as evidenced by his 43 DOM% and 29 DIS%. On the road, he's been consistently shaky, with a PQS log of 2-2-0. Tonight he faces an Orioles offense that has an .803 OPS at home this season and leads the AL in homers through Wednesday.

Lance McCulllers (RHP, HOU) is making his season debut against the Red Sox. He has spent the early part of the season recovering from a shoulder injury. McCullers tossed 64 pitches in his latest rehab start for AAA-Fresno, so he may face a limited pitch count in his first outing back. McCullers posted a 3.22 ERA in 22 starts for Houston during his rookie campaign last season.