(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Play Ball!

Daily Matchups

Brian Brickley

Jul 18 2013 11:02pm

(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Play Ball!

Brian Brickley

Jul 18 2013

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2013 Daily Matchups column seeks to highlight the outliers or notable matchups on BaseballHQ.com's Starting Pitcher Report (also available as an 8-day scan). For more information on how to leverage the report, see our research article from 2012.

Today's schedule overview: Everyone is in action as the second half begins. Pitchers are rested with all teams off the last four days. All of games take place in the evening, and there is one interleague game between the Braves and White Sox.

Best SP choices

Felix Doubront (LHP, BOS) has a 1.91 ERA over his last five starts and has thrown four PQS-5s in the process. He has been outstanding against the Yankees over the last two seasons, as all five of his starts against them have been PQS-DOM. The Yankees do not hit left-handed pitching well (.235 BA and .649 OPS).

John Danks (LHP, CHW) missed all of April and a significant part of May, yet has returned with seven PQS-DOM starts out of ten this season. He is just 2-6, but owns a great 5.6 Cmd and 106 BPV. An excellent 1.1 Ctl has come out of nowhere, as his previous career best was 2.4 in 2011. He takes on the Braves at home today in an interleague matchup. He has a decent 2.67 matchup ranking, with the Braves having only a .238 BA when facing left-handed pitching.

Worst SP choices

Mike Pelfrey (RHP, MIN) has only two PQS-DOM efforts in 16 starts this season, one of which came against the opposing Indians earlier this season. His 0.16 matchup rating is not terrible, but it is the lowest of the day. He has a 5.55 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 83 innings this season. His 4.86 xERA indicates that his struggles are no fluke. The Indians have hit well on the road, where they are fourth in MLB in both runs scored and OPS.

Jason Marquis (RHP, SD) is likely still fooling a few with his 9-4 record and 3.77 ERA. He has not been fooling opposing batters lately, as he has 14 K and 17 BB over his last four starts. In his career versus the Cardinals, he is 6-2, yet only has a 1.0 Cmd in 51 IP. The Cardinals will provide a tough test for Marquis in this one, as they have a .290 BA and .794 OPS in July, both of which are NL best.

Risk/reward SP choices

Wei-Yin Chen (LHP, BAL) is set to make his second start back after missing two months with an oblique injury. He faces the Rangers, the same team he faced in his first start back. In that one, he held them to just three hits and three walks in seven innings of work. It will be difficult to duplicate that effort, as Rangers Ballpark is extremely hitter friendly (+22% runs scored).

Bud Norris (RHP, HOU) has been pitching incredibly well since June 1, as seven of his eight starts in that time have been PQS-DOM. He is the ideal pitcher to start at home and sit when on the road. Luckily for Norris owners, he gets the Mariners at home to start the second half. In 11 home starts this season, he has a 2.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 71.1 IP. His numbers on the road are not so hot, where he has a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 42.2 IP. Don't be afraid to stream him here, especially in daily games where he can likely be rostered on the cheap.

Ricky Nolasco (RHP, LA) will be making his third start for his new team, but will be pitching in familiar surroundings. This start will be the eighth he has made at Nationals Park, where he is 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 42.2 IP. Earlier this season, he made two starts against the Nationals, both resulting in PQS-4s. He has pitched better on the road so far this season, putting up a 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 10 starts.