(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Heaney gets Strong Start nod for Friday

Daily Matchups

Brandon Kruse

Apr 16 2021 12:02am

(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Heaney gets Strong Start nod for Friday

Brandon Kruse

Apr 16 2021

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2021 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

Beginning-of-season note on our matchup tool: These scores do not use prior-year data for the first month of the season. This algorithm relies on projected data for now, and will incorporate in-season data immediately. There is one limitation with using projected data: the strikeout sub-component is running too low. That will wash out quickly as each SP makes their 2nd and 3rd start of the season. It may not even prove to be inaccurate, since SP tend to not pitch as deep into games early in the year, and typically don't get to peak velocity in their first few starts. But if you notice that the Strikeout sub-score is running negative for most pitchers, this will correct soon.

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Today's schedule overview: This will be the first Friday of the 2021 season with all 30 teams in action, though rain might have something to say about that for CHW at BOS and TOR at KC, plus there's a smaller chance of rain worth tracking for TAM at NYY. CLE will travel to CIN for the day's lone interleague matchup, while the Braves and Cubs have the day's only afternoon start.

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.5-0.9 range also favorable)

SP	Tm	Opp	RAT	K	ERA	WHIP	WIN	L5 PQS
Max Scherzer (R)	WAS	vARI	2.6	2.9	2.4	2.9	2.1	3 4
Jacob deGrom (R)	NYM	@COL	2.6	3.1	2.1	2.9	2.2	4 4
Andrew Heaney (L)	LAA	vMIN	1.4	1.8	1.3	1.5	1.0	0 4
Zach Eflin (R)	PHI	vSTL	1.3	1.7	1.3	1.9	0.3	4 0
Drew Smyly (L)	ATL	@CHC	0.8	1.6	0.5	1.2	-0.2	3 1
Walker Buehler (R)	LA	@SD	0.7	1.0	0.8	1.1	0.0	2 2
Frankie Montas (R)	OAK	vDET	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.6	0.6	0 2
Mike Minor (L)	KC	vTOR	0.6	0.8	0.9	0.9	-0.3	3 1

Don't let Andrew Heaney's (LHP, LAA) 7.00 ERA scare you off—it's the result of a 36% hit rate and 45% strand rate. His 3.54 xERA, 33% K%, and 15.3% SwK through two starts are career-best skills, and he's coming off of six shutout innings against the Blue Jays for a PQS-4. However, the Twins might present a tougher opponent, as they've been a Top 10 offense so far, with an even better OPS (.778) against lefties.

Mike Minor (LHP, KC) might be on shakier ground than he appears here, as he owns a 5.56 xERA through his first two starts, and his 11% BB% and 52% fly ball rate are at career-worst levels. On the positive side, the Blue Jays have been a middle-of-the-pack lineup in the early going, and have fared worse vs. LHP so far.

We cover and rank every start, every day to help you win your fantasy league in 2021. Take the title home with a subscription to BaseballHQ.com.

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.4 to 0.4)

SP	Tm	Opp	RAT	K	ERA	WHIP	WIN	L5 PQS
José Urquidy (R)	HOU	@SEA	0.4	0.8	0.4	1.4	-1.0	3 2
Anthony DeSclafani (R)	SF	@MIA	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.6	-0.4	2 3
Adrian Houser (R)	MIL	vPIT	0.3	0.1	0.9	-0.1	0.3	1 1
Mike Foltynewicz (R)	TEX	vBAL	0.3	0.7	0.3	0.3	-0.2	1 2
Yusei Kikuchi (L)	SEA	vHOU	0.3	0.9	0.5	0.4	-0.6	2 3
Michael King (R)	NYY	vTAM	0.3	-0.2	0.2	1.0	0.3
Jeff Hoffman (R)	CIN	vCLE	0.2	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.2	4 0
Nick Pivetta (R)	BOS	vCHW	0.1	0.9	0.1	-0.4	0.0	2 1
Steven Matz (L)	TOR	@KC	-0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	-1.0	5 1
Ryan Weathers (L)	SD	vLA	-0.2	-0.7	0.6	0.3	-0.8
Carlos Martínez (R)	STL	@PHI	-0.4	0.4	0.0	-0.6	-1.5	1 0

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, SF) merits consideration for Friday, as his early strikeout numbers are looking very good (25% K%, 15.0% SwK), and he's drawing a Marlins lineup that isn't very deep and owns a 71% contact rate through Wednesday's games. In addition, Marlins Park leans nicely pitcher-friendly.

Even though his ERA might be worse through his first two starts, skill-wise José Urquidy (RHP, HOU) is looking a lot more like the appealing 2019 version of himself after a COVID-19 diagnosis diminished his 2020 skills. He might benefit today from a matchup against a Mariners team that has been striking out a lot so far in April (69% contact rate).

Adrian Houser (RHP, MIL) has a 1.80 ERA through two starts, but that's been due largely to a 93% strand rate; his xERA is 4.20, and he has 6 walks to 7 strikeouts. Lefties have historically given him trouble (career .849 OPS vs. LHB, compared to .651 vs. RHB), and the Pirates can field a lineup with a lot of them.

Mike Foltynewicz's (RHP, TEX) velocity is back up to 94.0 mph, but his skills have not bounced back yet, as his xERA through two starts is 5.06. A 14% walk rate has been the issue, but a 67% FpK is a good sign that he can turn that around, and the Orioles' offense has been one of the worst in the league thus far. He might fare pretty well here.

It's still very early, but Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, SEA) seems to be showing some of the upside that was indicated by his 2020 skills (5.17 ERA, 3.93 xERA), and his 33% K% and 27% K-BB% have pushed into elite levels. The Astros have been one of the league's hottest lineups to start 2021, so this should be a good test of where Kikuchi is at.

Given his career 6.30 ERA and 5.22 xERA, and the fact that his last start was a PQS-0, it's probably best to view Jeff Hoffman's (RHP, CIN) successful first start of 2021 with a heavy dose of skepticism. Cleveland's offense has struggled a lot in the early going, but a lot of their problems can be traced to an unlucky 21% hit rate through Wednesday's games. (And getting no-hit certainly didn't help that.)

If the potential of 2018 Nick Pivetta (RHP, BOS) and his 3.53 xERA is still stuck in your head, note the trend of his xERAs since: 4.78, 5.16, and now 5.28 so far in 2021. The White Sox have a solid 0.54 Eye as a team through Wednesday, and have been averaging nearly 5 runs a game.

The problems that dogged Carlos Martínez (RHP, STL) in 2020—reductions in velocity, strikeouts, and SwK—have lingered into his early 2021 skills, so as tempting as it may be to roll the dice against a Phillies lineup that has struggled so far (.665 OPS, 0.25 Eye), his 4.92 xERA doesn't offer a lot of upside.

There are encouraging signs in the early skills of Steven Matz (LHP, TOR), including a 3.01 xERA, but the Royals have been mashing left-handers so far in 2021 (.846 OPS), and Matz's PQS scores (5,1) highlight some inconsistency between his first two starts.

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.5 and below)

SP	Tm	Opp	RAT	K	ERA	WHIP	WIN	L5 PQS
Jonathan Brubaker (R)	PIT	@MIL	-0.5	0.3	-0.3	-0.6	-1.4	3 2
Daniel Castano (L)	MIA	vSF	-0.5	-1.9	0.3	0.6	-0.9
Zachary Davies (R)	CHC	vATL	-0.5	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-1.2	2 1
Jorge López (R)	BAL	@TEX	-0.5	-0.2	-0.4	-0.5	-1.1	2 1
Dylan Cease (R)	CHW	@BOS	-0.8	0.3	-0.8	-1.5	-1.2	0 3
Michael Wacha (R)	TAM	@NYY	-0.9	0.2	-1.0	-1.4	-1.4	3
Taylor Widener (R)	ARI	@WAS	-1.2	0.6	-0.9	-1.4	-2.8	3 1
Lewis Thorpe (L)	MIN	@LAA	-1.3	-1.6	-0.9	-0.5	-2.1
José Ureña (R)	DET	@OAK	-1.3	-0.6	-1.0	-2.1	-1.7	1 2
Logan Allen (L)	CLE	@CIN	-1.3	-0.8	-1.3	-1.8	-1.2	0 3
Chi Chi González (R)	COL	vNYM	-2.0	-1.6	-1.5	-2.0	-2.9	2

Jonathan Brubaker (RHP, PIT) may sport a 1.93 ERA through his first two starts, but that's mostly due to a 91% strand rate. His 4.14 xERA, however, is right in line with his 2020 skills, and he was oft-cited as an underrated target by our own Stephen Nickrand this offseason. A matchup against the struggling Brewers lineup might be worth treating as more of a judgment call.

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

Overall SP Rating

SP by SP league percentile

League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75|
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22    +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30    +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30    +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34    +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55    +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So, if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding.