(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Happy Opening Day!

Daily Matchups

Ray Murphy

Mar 28 2019 1:02am

(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Happy Opening Day!

Ray Murphy

Mar 28 2019

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

One note on our matchup tool: These scores do not use prior-year data for the first month of the season. This algorithm relies on projected data for now, and will incorporate in-season data immediately. There is one limitation with using projected data: the strikeout sub-component is running too low. That will wash out quickly as each SP makes their 2nd and 3rd start of the season. It may not even prove to be inaccurate, since SP tend to not pitch as deep into games early in the year, and typically don't get to peak velocity in April. But if you notice that the Strikeout sub-score is running negative for most pitchers, this will correct soon.

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Today’s schedule overview: Happy Opening Day! For the second straight year, MLB gifts us a full 15-game Opening Day schedule. There are a couple of early afternoon games, followed by the bulk of the slate slotted at 4pm, and a single night game (BOS @ SEA). The Cubs add the DH as they visit Texas. Somewhat remarkably, the day looks relatively benign in terms of weather.

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable):

SP	Tm	Opp	RAT	K	ERA	WHIP	WIN	L5 PQS
Chris Sale	BOS	@SEA	2.36	0.92	3.12	3.00	2.38	0
Max Scherzer	WAS	vNYM	1.00	0.39	1.89	2.00	-0.28	0
Corey Kluber	CLE	@MIN	0.91	-0.43	1.64	1.55	0.88	0
Aaron Nola	PHI	vATL	0.90	-0.47	1.62	1.07	1.38	0
Justin Verlander	HOU	@TAM	0.86	0.16	1.58	1.81	-0.12	0
Jacob deGrom	NYM	@WAS	0.76	-0.20	1.91	1.56	-0.22	0
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	vBAL	0.70	-0.76	1.14	0.93	1.50	0

No real surprises in the ace tier, as these names figure to make regular appearances at the top of our ratings:

Sale's clear top rating is diminished only by lingering questions about his pitch count for today
Tanaka slips into this elite company thanks to his favorable matchup vs. the Orioles.

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Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50):

SP	Tm	Opp	RAT	K	ERA	WHIP	WIN	L5 PQS
Hyun-Jin Ryu	LA	vARI	0.44	-0.73	1.44	1.09	-0.06	0
Blake Snell	TAM	vHOU	0.39	-0.21	1.44	0.71	-0.38	0
Luis Castillo	CIN	vPIT	0.27	-0.85	1.19	0.61	0.12	0
Zack Greinke	ARI	@LA	0.22	-0.84	1.24	0.93	-0.44	0
Madison Bumgarner	SF	@SD	0.05	-1.08	0.59	0.27	0.42	0
Miles Mikolas	STL	@MIL	-0.05	-1.40	0.47	0.46	0.28	0
Jameson Taillon	PIT	@CIN	-0.12	-1.05	0.76	0.43	-0.62	0
Marcus Stroman	TOR	vDET	-0.15	-1.70	0.84	-0.43	0.71	0
Trevor Cahill	LAA	@OAK	-0.27	-1.20	0.74	-0.78	0.18	0
Mike Fiers	OAK	vLAA	-0.50	-1.43	0.20	-0.10	-0.68	0
José Berríos	MIN	vCLE	-0.50	-0.96	0.32	0.03	-1.38	0

Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP,LA) takes the opening assignment for the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. Ryu was sharp this spring (0 BB/12 K in 15 IP) and posted a 3.75 ERA against the D'Backs last year (12 IP).

Blake Snell (LHP, TAM) opens his Cy Young defense with a tough matchup against the Astros. The Houston lineup is somewhat retooled this year, but also healthier today than perhaps at any point a year ago. And that 2018 version was very rough on lefties (.803 OPS).

Luis Castillo (RHP, CIN) toes the mound first for the re-tooled Reds as they face off against Pittsburgh. Castillo started very slowly last year before finishing with a second-half flourish, so his struggles this spring (12 ER in 8.2 IP) are perhaps a little tougher to discount than someone else's struggles might be.

Zack Greinke (RHP, ARI) takes the mound at home against the Dodgers, a team who he fared well against in 2018 (4 GS, 3-1, 3.86 ERA, 156 BPV). One reason for his success vs. his former team might be that the Dodgers can use their "team pretzel" concept to get a lot of LH bats in the lineup against him, but Greinke has exhibited only minimal platoon splits for his career... and last year actually showed a reverse split in terms of oOPS.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, SD) had an odd but not terribly unusual spring, by Cactus League standards: he allowed 19 ER in 20 IP, but with 2 BB/20 K along the way. Many eyes will be on the radar guns in this one, looking for an indication on Bumgarner's velocity trajectory when the bright lights are on. Pitching in Petco Park today sounds like it should help, but the cracks in Bumgarner's skills have shown predominantly against RHP, and the Padres can get very right-handed.

Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) is a great demonstrator of the value of the sub-score components of our Matchups algorithm. His extremely low strikeout rating drags down his overall rating, which would otherwise lean to the positive side for this matchup at Milwaukee.

Marcus Stroman (RHP, TOR) had a strong spring (1 BB, 13 K in 12 IP) as he looks to rebound from an injury-plagued 2018 season. As with Mikolas above, the sub-scores tell a story here: it's no surprise that the normally strikeout-stingy Stroman is a poor play for K's, but the ratio ratings reflect the more positive outlook that you would expect when facing the Tigers.

Trevor Cahill (RHP, LAA) gets the ball for his new team, the Angels, as they travel to face his old team, the Athletics. A year ago, Cahill was terrific out of the gate for the A's (2.77 ERA in 1st half) before fading (4.55 in 2nd half). Between that split and the ever-present health questions, if you own Cahill, start him now rather than waiting for better matchups later.

Mike Fiers (RHP, OAK) opposes the Angels and Cahill, which is somewhat appropriate since he and Cahill were opposite sides of the same coin in Oakland a year ago: Fiers was mediocre in the first half of 2018 (4.09 ERA, 82 BPV), before finishing the season very strong (3.09 ERA, 110 BPV in 2nd half).

José Berríos (RHP, MIN) makes an unusual lower-tier appearance today, just barely avoiding the Weak starts group. This is somewhat surprising, and may be in part due to the projected strength of the opposing Indians lineup being overstated, due to the absence of Francisco Lindor. The matchup with Corey Kluber is also tamping down the Win rating. Berrios started 2018 strong (6 BB/36 K, 148 BPV in April), and had a seemingly routine March, so don't let this rating push you off this start. He's a (near-)ace, and you always start your aces.

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below):

SP	Tm	Opp	RAT	K	ERA	WHIP	WIN	L5 PQS
Jon Lester	CHC	@TEX	-0.52	-1.38	-0.10	-0.52	-0.08	0
Carlos Rodón	CHW	@KC	-0.61	-1.35	0.02	-0.83	-0.28	0
Kyle Freeland	COL	@MIA	-0.62	-1.73	0.12	-0.78	-0.09	0
Mike Minor	TEX	vCHC	-0.67	-1.45	-0.34	-0.48	-0.42	0
José Ureña	MIA	vCOL	-0.80	-1.85	-0.10	-0.84	-0.41	0
Jhoulys Chacín	MIL	vSTL	-0.82	-1.48	-0.23	-0.80	-0.78	0
Eric Lauer	SD	vSF	-0.83	-1.45	-0.28	-0.68	-0.92	0
Brad Keller	KC	vCHW	-0.85	-2.04	0.07	-1.22	-0.22	0
Jordan Zimmermann	DET	@TOR	-0.89	-1.72	-0.42	-0.22	-1.21	0
Marco Gonzales	SEA	vBOS	-0.98	-1.44	0.29	0.12	-2.88	0
Julio Teheran	ATL	@PHI	-1.04	-1.17	-0.41	-0.69	-1.88	0
Andrew Cashner	BAL	@NYY	-1.79	-2.15	-1.28	-1.73	-2.00	0

Jon Lester (LHP, CHC) draws a matchup that is perhaps decent on its surface, at Texas (at least before the summer heat sets in). But as we will likely be reminding you all season, this is no longer vintage Lester. Furthermore, he allowed 18 ER in 17 IP this spring, so he isn't exactly primed for this opening assignment.

Carlos Rodón (LHP, CHW) matches up with the Royals, a team that will be a likely target for streaming pitchers (or DFS play) this season. There is merit to that strategy, but even last year Rodon failed to show the requisite skills (for instance, 1.5 Cmd in the second half) to get us interested today. He needs to show something before he can be trusted, even in an objectively appealing matchup.

Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL) is in a similar situation against the Marlins today. Freeland had the opposite of helium (insert heavier-than-air gas reference here) this spring, as his ADP dropped seemingly week-over-week as people discounted his 2018 ERA more and more heavily. And yet, the Marlins lineup figures to be an anemic one, which should make today's start more appealing than this score indicates.

Eric Lauer (LHP, SD) faces the Giants at home, yet another matchup that has some on-paper appeal. A look at the subscores reveals that Lauer's strikeout potential is primarily pushing this start into the bottom tier; in terms of ratio outlook it's a middle-tier matchup, which makes logical sense.

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.