(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Hamels receives top rating Friday

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2016 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, wildcards, or strong sits and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP at the bottom of the column.

Note that as of Opening Day 2016, the Matchup Scores are now being driven from the new PQS scoring system. That change has had a significant effect on the traditional range of scores, some of which is addressed in a subsequent PQS column.

Using the new PQS system, scores are centered around 0.0 (league average). Ratings of 1.00 or better constitute a strong start; ratings between -0.99 and +0.99 are in the "wild card: range; ratings of  -1.00 or worse are strong sits.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you maximize your SP utilization.

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Today's schedule overview: All 30 teams play tonight, with first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. The Mariners host the Brewers in the sole interleague matchup. The forecast looks clear overall, with thunderstorm potentially impacting MIN @ KC and WAS @ ATL.

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• Strong Starts

Lg     SP                            Tm      H/A     Opp     Rating     Last 5 PQS
==     =========================     ===     ===     ===     ======     ==========
A      Cole Hamels (L)               TEX      A      TAM     1.12        2 4 4 2 3

 

• Wildcards

Lg     SP                            Tm      H/A     Opp     Rating     Last 5 PQS
==     =========================     ===     ===     ===     ======     ==========
N      Johnny Cueto (R)              SF       H      NYM      0.93       3 1 4 2 3
N      Zack Greinke (R)              ARI      A      SD       0.67       4 0 1 3 1
A      Michael Fulmer (R)            DET      H      BOS      0.58       0 3 3 5 5
A      Matt Andriese (R)             TAM      H      TEX      0.19       1 2 3 2 2
A      Masahiro Tanaka (R)           NYY      A      LAA      0.14       2 0 2 3 4
N      Tanner Roark (R)              WAS      A      ATL      0.12       1 3 3 4 3
N      Tyler Anderson (L)            COL      H      CHC      0.06       3 3 4 3 1
N      Gerrit Cole (R)               PIT      H      MIA      0.04       3 5 1 3 2
A      Wade LeBlanc (L)              SEA      H      MIL      0.01       0 3 3 0 3
A      Rick Porcello (R)             BOS      A      DET      0.01       5 4 4 5 3
N      Jarred Cosart (R)             SD       H      ARI     -0.10       1 3 2 2 2
N      Julio Teheran (R)             ATL      H      WAS     -0.18       3 0 5 2 2
A      Edinson Vólquez (R)           KC       H      MIN     -0.27       1 1 0 1 2
N      Adam Wainwright (R)           STL      A      PHI     -0.51       3 2 2 1 0
A      Trevor Bauer (R)              CLE      H      TOR     -0.75       1 1 1 3 1
A      José Berríos (R)              MIN      A      KC      -0.80       2 0 4 1 1
A      James Shields (R)             CHW      H      OAK     -0.93       1 4 1 0 0
A      Wade Miley (L)                BAL      H      HOU     -0.94       1 5 2 1 0
N      Tom Koehler (R)               MIA      A      PIT     -0.95       4 4 4 4 2
N      Adam Morgan (L)               PHI      H      STL     -0.98       3 2 2 1 1
A      Collin McHugh (R)             HOU      A      BAL     -0.99       2 1 2 4 3

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Michael Fulmer (RHP, DET) is coming off of back-to-back PQS-5 starts against two AL playoff contenders (Rangers, Mariners). Fulmer has a steep challenge tonight, as he faces the Red Sox, the highest scoring offense in MLB. Fulmer’s 2.25 ERA on the season is benefiting from some favorable H% and S% luck, but his skills have been excellent over the past month, earning him a 3.18 xERA.

Matt Andriese (RHP, TAM) is making his fourth start since returning to the rotation from the bullpen tonight against Texas. Andriese has a 3.4 Cmd and 3.71 ERA in 11 MLB starts this year. He has thrown 76 pitches in each of his last two starts, but could work a little deeper tonight with these two efforts under his belt. Andriese hasn’t exceeded 5 IP since his first rotation stint in May and June. The Rangers are 4th in the AL in scoring.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, NYY) is averaging a 3.1 PQS score and 2.52 ERA in road starts this year. Tanaka, who hasn’t walked a batter since July, has a 33/17 DOM/DIS split this year. The Angels strike out in just 17% of PA, so the Yankees righty isn’t a great bet to match his season-high 8 K that he’s posted in both of his last two starts.

Rick Porcello (RHP, BOS) has posted PQS-DOM outings in four of his last five starts entering tonight’s contest against the Tigers in Detroit. He will be facing his former team for the second time since being traded before the 2015 season. Porcello has a 3.70 ERA on the road this year. The Tigers rank 7th in the majors in home OPS.

Wade LeBlanc (LHP, SEA) has a 4.68 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) for the Mariners. LeBlanc is giving up 2.3 hr/9 as hitters are feasting on his 86 mph average fastball velocity to the tune of a .242 ISO against his four-seam, cutter, and sinker (per BrooksBaseball). LeBlanc has a good matchup in the Brewers, who have the 27th best road OPS in baseball at .683.

Edinson Vólquez (RHP, KC) is making his fourth start of the season against the Twins. He is averaging a 3.0 PQS and has a 3.40 xERA against them over 18 IP. Volquez has a 40% DIS% on the year and just a 41 BPV over his past six starts. While Volquez has a 4.04 ERA at home, the Twins lead the AL in road OPS.

Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) has a home start against the Blue Jays. Bauer has a 26/47 DOM/DIS split on the year and has thrown four PQS-DIS starts in his last five outings. During this stretch, Bauer’s had a 5.5 Ctl that serves as a reminder of his poor Ctl in 2015—he had the highest Ctl among all qualified starting pitchers last year. The Blue Jays have been a league-average offense on the road by both OPS and runs scored.

José Berríos (RHP, MIN) has had a tough go in the majors this year, posting 9.32 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. While the long-term future is still bright for the Twins hurler, his skills profile in the majors this year—4.5 Ctl, 2.1 Cmd, 31% GB%, 4.90 xERA, 61 BPV—indicates he has plenty of work to do to live up to his prospect potential and strong minor league results. Berrios has been killed by the longball this year, giving up 2.3 hr/9. The Royals could offer some relief in this department as they have the fewest HR in the AL.

James Shields (RHP, CHW) has 1.0 Cmd and 7.34 ERA in 13 starts since joining the White Sox. Shields has been particularly prone to home runs at U.S. Cellular Field, giving up 3.0 hr/9 there. He’s averaging a 1.2 PQS score for the South Siders heading into tonight’s home start against the A’s.

Wade Miley (LHP, BAL) will make his fourth start as an Oriole tonight vs. Houston. Miley has an ugly 9/41 DOM/DIS split on the year and is averaging a 1.8 PQS score over his past five starts.

Collin McHugh (RHP, HOU) has a road start against a powerful Baltimore offense that has the day’s lowest (i.e. strongest) Opp Team Rating at 1.67. The Orioles lead the majors in HR and will look to continue their onslaught in the friendly confines of Camden Yards.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Johnny Cueto (RHP, SF) just misses out on Strong Starts designation today, but make no mistake—the Giants hurler is an excellent option at home against the Mets. Cueto has taken well to AT&T Park, posting a 2.74 ERA and averaging a PQS score of 3.5 there in first season with San Francisco. He faces a Mets lineup that has the worst OPS in the NL since the All-Star Break.

Zack Greinke (RHP, ARI) looks to bounce back from the shellacking he received at the hands of the Red Sox last Sunday in his start tonight in San Diego. Greinke posted a PQS-3 two starts ago in what was his first start back from a month-long DL stint due to an oblique injury. The Padres are a weak offense, especially in Petco Park where they have the 26th best home OPS in MLB.

Tanner Roark (RHP, WAS) faces the Braves, who are last in MLB in scoring, in a road start in Turner Field. Roark has given up 1 ER against the Braves in his two starts against them this season.

Tyler Anderson (COL, LHP) has a 3.04 ERA in 7 starts this year in Coors Field. He’s done so while running a 33% H% in Coors, which is close to the 34% H% that is the average of all Rockies pitchers at home in 2016. He has faced some strong offenses during this strong run at home including the Blue Jays and Rangers, and will face another tough test in tonight in the Cubs, who are second in the NL in scoring.

Gerrit Cole (RHP, PIT) takes on the Marlins to kick off a crucial series for two teams chasing the NL Wild Card. Cole has a 2.94 ERA at home in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. The Marlins have the 4th best road OPS in the NL.

Jarred Cosart (RHP, SD) makes his fourth start as a Padre tonight at home against Arizona. Cosart has made seven MLB starts in total this season and has a thrown 34 IP with 21 K and 24 BB. The extreme groundballer has only given up 1 HR, but his weak skills have lead him to a 5.03 ERA so far that is in line with his 5.13 xERA. Cosart is safely avoided against a Diamondbacks lineup that has an above-average OPS in road games.

Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) is expected to return from the DL tonight and start against the Nationals. Teheran last started July 30. He has a solid 48/19 DOM/DIS split, but has displayed weak skills vs. LHB this season, as noted in this week’s Starting Pitcher Buyers Guide. So while Teheran is a decent option on today’s slate, Nationals LHB Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper could make good targets today in DFS.

Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) draws the Phillies in a road start. Wainwright has rounded into form after a rough April in which he had a 7.16 ERA, posting a 3.95 xERA since the start of July. The Phillies have the second lowest OPS in the NL, besting only the Braves.

Tom Koehler (RHP, MIA) is coming of his strongest five start stretch of the season, during which he has posted a 1.36 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and an average PQS score of 3.6. Koehler looks to continue his solid run on the road against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the third-best home OPS in the NL, despite playing their home games in pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Adam Morgan (RHP, PHI) left his outing last Sunday with a forearm contusion after being struck by a line drive, but is expected to make his scheduled start tonight against St. Louis. Morgan’s 4.84 xERA is nearly two runs lower than his 6.62 actual ERA. This could make him usable in some matchups, but not tonight against the Cardinals and their MLB-leading .795 OPS on the road.

 

• Strong Sits

Lg     SP                            Tm      H/A     Opp     Rating     Last 5 PQS
==     =========================     ===     ===     ===     ======     ==========
N      Kyle Hendricks (R)            CHC      A      COL     -1.01       4 2 4 3 4
A      Kendall Graveman (R)          OAK      A      CHW     -1.01       3 2 1 4 0
A      Jered Weaver (R)              LAA      H      NYY     -1.06       0 1 1 0 0
N      Bud Norris (R)                LA       A      CIN     -1.21       1 3 2 5 2
A      Francisco Liriano (L)         TOR      A      CLE     -1.32       4 0 1 1 0
N      Timothy Adleman (R)           CIN      H      LA      -1.69       3 1 1 1
N      Wily Peralta (R)              MIL      A      SEA     -2.14       1 0 1 3 4
N      Seth Lugo (R)                 NYM      A      SF      (**)      

(**) - first start/default rating

Kyle Hendricks (RHP, CHC) is in the midst of a strong run in which he’s thrown 35 K against 6 BB over his last five starts. Hendricks takes the mound in Coors Field tonight against the Rockies, who have the day’s second lowest Opp Team Rating thanks to their strong offense in the thin air.

Seth Lugo (RHP, NYM) makes his first start of the year, taking Steven Matz's rotation spot tonight in San Francisco. Lugo has been working out of the Mets' bullpen for the last six weeks, and isn't stretched out enough to go deep into the game. He's just the first link in a bullpen-heavy night for the Mets.
 

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