(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Back from the All-Star break, Carrasco a top choice

Daily Matchups

Sam Grant

Jul 14 2016 11:02pm

(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Back from the All-Star break, Carrasco a top choice

Sam Grant

Jul 14 2016

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2016 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, wildcards, or strong sits and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP at the bottom of the column.

Note that as of Opening Day 2016, the Matchup Scores are now being driven from the new PQS scoring system. That change has had a significant effect on the traditional range of scores, some of which is addressed in a subsequent PQS column.

Using the new PQS system, scores are centered around 0.0 (league average). Ratings of 1.00 or better constitute a strong start; ratings between -0.99 and +0.99 are in the "wild card: range; ratings of -1.00 or worse are strong sits.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you maximize your SP utilization.

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Today's schedule overview: The All-Star break is over and all 30 teams play today. The Cubs host the Rangers in an afternoon game in Wrigley starting at 2:20 PM ET. This is the only interleague game on the slate today. The remaining 14 games begin at 7:05 ET. COL @ ATL has the possibility of a thunderstorm, but otherwise weather should not be a major factor.

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Strong Starts

Lg     SP                            Tm      H/A     Opp     Rating     Last 5 PQS
==     =========================     ===     ===     ===     ======     ==========
N      Lucas Harrell (R)             ATL      H      COL     1.44       4 4
N      Stephen Strasburg (R)         WAS      H      PIT     1.18       4 0 4 4 4
A      Carlos Carrasco (R)           CLE      A      MIN     1.12       3 5 4 3 0

Lucas Harrell (RHP, ATL) appears in the Strong Starts section after throwing PQS-4 outings in both of his 2016 MLB starts. Harrell is a 31-year-old journeyman who last pitched in the majors in 2014 for the Astros and was released by the Tigers this May after a handful of minor league starts. He had a 5.1 Ctl in the minors before his callup. Over 415 career MLB innings, he has a 4.66 ERA. With this weak track record, Harrell needs a few more good major league starts before he is relevant fantasy consideration.

In the hunt? Let BaseballHQ.com help you snag the title. Unlock all of our insights like these for the rest of the season: Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com.

Wildcards

Lg     SP                            Tm      H/A     Opp     Rating     Last 5 PQS
==     =========================     ===     ===     ===     ======     ==========
A      Justin Verlander (R)          DET      H      KC       0.87       3 4 1 5 2
N      Kyle Hendricks (R)            CHC      H      TEX      0.50       0 2 2 2 2
A      Steven Wright (R)             BOS      A      NYY      0.43       3 4 0 0 2
A      James Paxton (L)              SEA      H      HOU      0.31       2 3 3 1 3
N      Madison Bumgarner (L)         SF       A      SD       0.29       4 4 2 4 5
N      Anthony DeSclafani (R)        CIN      H      MIL      0.22       1 4 5 5 2
N      Jorge De La Rosa (L)          COL      A      ATL      0.17       2 1 2 3 3
N      Jeremy Hellickson (R)         PHI      H      NYM      0.00       1 4 3 4 2
A      Ervin Santana (R)             MIN      H      CLE     -0.09       0 3 1 4 5
N      Bartolo Colón (R)             NYM      A      PHI     -0.23       4 2 2 2 0
N      Jaime García (L)              STL      H      MIA     -0.33       1 5 2 3 2
A      Chris Archer (R)              TAM      H      BAL     -0.37       2 1 2 4 0
A      Daniel Mengden (R)            OAK      H      TOR     -0.37       4 2 4 2 2
N      Wei-Yin Chen (L)              MIA      A      STL     -0.41       2 1 4 1 4
A      Doug Fister (R)               HOU      A      SEA     -0.51       4 4 3 0 3
A      Héctor Santiago (L)           LAA      H      CHW     -0.56       3 2 1 2 4 
A      Marcus Stroman (R)            TOR      A      OAK     -0.56       4 1 0 5 4
A      Miguel González (R)           CHW      A      LAA     -0.70       1 4 0 2 4
N      Patrick Corbin (L)            ARI      H      LA      -0.76       2 2 0 2 0 
N      Matt Garza (R)                MIL      A      CIN     -0.78       3 2 1 2 0
A      Michael Pineda (R)            NYY      H      BOS     -0.81       3 2 3 3 3
A      Yovani Gallardo (R)           BAL      A      TAM     -0.86       1 0 2 1 1
A      Ian Kennedy (R)               KC       A      DET     -0.91       4 0 4 1 3

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Justin Verlander (RHP, DET) has a 61 PQS-DOM% this year and he's posted his highest Dom since 2009. He has struggled with home runs, surrendering 1.2 hr/9, a consequence of an increasingly fly-ball heavy approach.

Steven Wright (RHP, BOS) has been one of the first-half surprises, and has a good rating for tonight's tilt against NYY. Just know that his ERA sits approximately one-and-half runs lower than his xERA. But in his only 2016 appearance against New York, he did fire a complete-game PQS-4.

James Paxton (LHP, SEA) increased his average fastball velocity by 3 mph this year and seen his SwK rise from 7% in 2015 to 12%. Paxton's hard luck 40% H% has led to a 1.59 WHIP despite an improved 2.6 Ctl since his recall to the majors in June. He faces an Astros lineup that has the worst OPS vs. LHP among AL teams, making him a fine selection today.

Ervin Santana (RHP, MIN) opens up his second half at home against the Indians. He has thrown back-to-back PQS-DOMs, including a complete game shutout in his most recent outing on July 6. Santana didn't have a great first half on the whole, posting a 4.40 xERA along with below-average Dom, FpK, and SwK. The Indians have the 13th best OPS on the road among AL clubs.

Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) had a tough first half, posting a 4-12 record with a 4.66 ERA. Archer's had a high 34 H% and 18% hr/f, but has also had a rise in Ctl to 3.9 and given up the highest percentage of hard-hit balls (35%) of any season in his career. Archer has a challenge in the Orioles, who lead MLB in home runs. The Rays ace has one good start (a six-inning, 10-K shutout) and one dud (4 HR in 5 IP) against Baltimore this year, both back in April.

Daniel Mengden (RHP, OAK) makes his 7th career start and first against TOR, who have scored the second-most runs in the AL. TOR has also taken the most walks in the AL; Mengden's Ctl is 3.8 so far. Expect lots of baserunners in this one.

Doug Fister (RHP, HOU) has a 3.01 ERA since the calendar turned to May, but his 5.9 Dom and 2.2 Cmd during the period don't support this strong run. Fister has a 6.40 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this year. The Mariners have the fourth highest OPS in the AL.

Héctor Santiago (LHP, LAA) has a 44 DIS% this year and his 55% FpK that ranks sixth worst among qualified starters. His control problems have a hindrance lately as he's walked four batters in each of his past three starts. Santiago is facing the White Sox, who are 14th in the AL in scoring on the road.

Marcus Stroman (RHP, TOR) is looking for his third consecutive PQS-DOM start tonight in Oakland. Stroman has yet to post a double-digit strikeout game and has a low 6.4 Dom this year. His 9% SwK suggests more strikeouts could be in the offing, though. The A's have the worst home OPS in the AL.

Miguel González (RHP, CHW) faces the Angels tonight on the road. Gonzalez has a drastic home/road split this year (3.43 ERA on the road vs. 5.86 ERA at home) that is mostly the result of a 59 percentage point better H% in road starts. While U.S. Cellular Field is a hitter's park, its effect is not that drastic. His already mediocre skills are worse on the road: he has just a 1.6 Cmd away from home this year. Gonzalez gets to face an Angels offense that is 10th in the AL in OPS.

Michael Pineda (RHP, NYY) takes the mound against the high-powered Red Sox offense at home. He's faced the Red Sox twice this year, posting a PQS-1 in both outings. Pineda has given up 2.1 hr/9 in HR-friendly Yankee Stadium this year, after giving up 1.6 hr/9 there last year. Through 17 starts, Pineda has yet to toss a PQS-DOMinant outing. While he had tough luck over the first half of the season and is a candidate for positive regression in the second half, he's not a strong option tonight.

Yovani Gallardo (RHP, BAL) has yet to earn a PQS score greater than two in nine 2016 starts. He has a -1 BPV and a 5.82 ERA that is supported by his 5.60 xERA. The Rays have just a .689 OPS (14th best in the AL) at home, but Gallardo has done nothing this year to suggest he is a viable fantasy option in any matchup.

Ian Kennedy (RHP, KC) has been victimized by the longball this year, even more than his high 48% fly ball rate would suggest, as he's yielded a 16% hr/f. Kennedy has a 5.14 ERA on the road this year, where he has given up 17 of his 21 home runs allowed.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Kyle Hendricks (RHP, CHC) has a 2.55 career ERA at home as he opens up the second half this afternoon against the Rangers. He is only averaging a 1.6 PQS score over his last five starts with a 76 BPV. Hendricks trails only Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw in FpK among qualified starters.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, SF) has a tough matchup against the Padres, whose .810 OPS vs. southpaws this season is fifth best in the majors. Bumgarner is averaging a 4.3 PQS score against the Padres over his last seven starts against the club dating back to 2015. He has a stellar 68% DOM% this year, including PQS-DOM outings in five of his last six starts.

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, CIN) has looked good over his last four starts after not starting his season until June due to injury. DeSclafani, who had BPVs north of 140 in both August and September 2015, was wild in his first two starts, walking three while striking out just two in both outings. He's thrown PQS-DOMs in three of his last four starts, two of which were on the road against Washington and Texas. DeSclafani is in a good spot tonight against the Brewers, who have the third worst OPS on the road in the NL.

Jorge De La Rosa (LHP, COL) has an excellent matchup tonight, pitching on the road against the Braves. De la Rosa has been battered on the road this year: opponents have a triple slash line of .343/.409/.564 in 30.1 IP away from Coors. Interestingly, his career ERA has been nearly half a run higher away from Coors (4.61 compared to 4.18 in Denver). The Braves have the most favorable Opp Team Rating today, yet de la Rosa's Matchup Rating is barely positive. He's not a safe bet for a good start even against the worst offense of the first half.

Bartolo Colón (RHP, NYM) takes on a weak Phillies offense. His pinpoint control is still intact, but with his ERA/xERA gap (3.28/4.11) sub-6 Dom, there are likely better choices available. Colon has a PQS-2 and PQS-3 in two starts vs. PHI this season.

Jeremy Hellickson (RHP, PHI) is seen by many as a likely trade candidate, but his declining Dom should concern MLB and fantasy GMs alike. Hellickson looked like a new man early in the season, posting a 9.2 Dom across April and May. Since then, he has a 6.0 Dom with an accompanying drop in SwK. Without above-average punch-out ability, Hellickson allows too many baserunners to have much success given his slight fly ball tilt—even during his good seasons, his hr/9 has always been at 1.0 or above.

Jaime García (LHP, STL) has a home start against the Marlins, who have the 5th best road OPS in baseball. Garcia, as covered in Facts/Flukes earlier this week, has seen his walk rate rise this year, which has resulted in an increased ERA and WHIP. Garcia has a reverse platoon split over his career, which will benefit him against a Marlins lineup loaded with right-handers.

Wei-Yin Chen (LHP, MIA) gets the call against the Cardinals, who were second in the NL in scoring in the first half. Chen has struggled with homers, particularly on the road where he has a 1.74 hr/9. Chen has decent peripherals this year, but Marlins Park's spacious outfield has insulated him from a worst overall line. Busch Stadium is a good place to pitch, but the Cardinals present a big challenge for the southpaw tonight.

Patrick Corbin LHP, ARI) has struggled in his second year back from TJS. He's posted a -11 BPV and surrendered home runs at a career high clip of 1.5 hr/9 despite increasing his ground ball tilt. He hasn't shown recent signs of figuring it out, with a 5.4 Ctl and 6.2 Dom over his past six starts. While he's flashed signs of the potential he showed in 2013 before his UCL tear with a 28 DOM%, his 39 DIS% speaks to his inconsistency this year.

Matt Garza (RHP, MIL) has been unimpressive in five 2016 starts after starting his season on the DL with a lat injury. He has a 46 BPV, which is actually an improvement over his poor 43 BPV last year. He had three starts against the Reds last year, averaging a 1.0 PQS score with a 7.80 ERA.

Strong Sits

Lg     SP                            Tm      H/A     Opp     Rating     Last 5 PQS
==     =========================     ===     ===     ===     ======     ==========
N      Bud Norris (R)                LA       A      ARI     -1.34       4 3 5 4 1
N      Andrew Cashner (R)            SD       H      SF      -1.68       3 0 2 2 0
A      Martín Pérez (L)              TEX      A      CHC     -1.69       2 0 0 2 0
N      Francisco Liriano (L)         PIT      A      WAS     -1.76       1 2 2 1 2

(**) - default rating

Bud Norris (RHP, LA) had an ugly start to the year, but in his seven starts since rejoining the Braves rotation on June 4, he has a 2.23 ERA that is supported by a 9.4 Dom, 54 GB%, and 2.45 Ctl. A thousand innings of mediocrity should rightly cast doubt on one good month, but Norris has altered his pitch mix during this run. Norris has recently featured a cutter and ditched his changeup. A away start in Arizona is not a great spot for Norris.