This article first appeared in the July 17 issue of USA TODAY SportsWeekly.

The most interesting and the most chaotic part of every baseball season is the trade deadline. And Major League Baseball has thrown a new wrinkle into the mix this year with the elimination of waiver trades in August.

That means MLB teams need to make a final decision about their status as a postseason contender – and whether or not their roster is playoff-caliber – by July 31.

With a couple of weeks remaining, the wheeling and dealing hasn’t quite kicked into high gear. That’s understandable, especially when the only guarantee for snagging a wild-card berth is one winner-take-all playoff game.

Fantasy owners, meanwhile, are waiting for MLB general managers to make moves before they start making theirs.

Admittedly, this time of year is a much bigger deal in keeper or single-league fantasy formats because it marks a major decision point for in-season strategy.

For AL- and NL-only owners, the trade deadline can be a bit like spinning the wheel of fortune. Those with the top waiver priority or the highest free agent budget can hit the jackpot if a top player changes leagues.

Remember how CC Sabathia dominated in 2008 when he was traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee, going 11-2 in 17 starts with a 1.65 ERA? Or when Manny Ramirez was dealt later that same season from the Red Sox to the Dodgers – and proceeded to hit .396 with 17 homers and 53 RBI in 53 games?

Two years ago, J.D. Martinez made a similar impact (.302, 29 HRs, 65 RBI in 62 games) after joining the Arizona Diamondbacks and catapulted many fantasy teams toward a title. Last season, Manny Machado and Brad Hand became potential game-changers after they switched leagues.

Even role players can turn out to be the missing piece in a championship puzzle. Edwin Jackson and Eduardo Núñez will forever have a place in my heart for providing just enough help in a couple of key categories after changing leagues to lead me to league titles in Tout Wars and LABR.

When it comes to managing a free agent acquisition budget (FAAB), I’ve always advocated being aggressive in mixed leagues, but I’m much more conservative in single-league formats. Having the resources to pounce on those difference-making crossover players at the trade deadline is the primary reason.

As the trade deadline approaches, fantasy GMs go through a similar self-evaluation process as their major league counterparts.

This is especially true in keeper leagues, where any moves made to help a team win this season must take into consideration the impact they have on the team’s ability to compete in the future.

A simple way to frame the decision-making process is what I call the traffic light test. Which color best describes your roster as your league’s trade deadline approaches?

Red light: The team simply isn’t good enough to contend for a title, even with one or more major additions.

We’ve all had seasons when nothing seems to go right. Drafting José Ramírez or Chris Sale in the first round or paying top dollar for Giancarlo Stanton might have looked like the proper move at the time, but injuries or subpar performances have all but torpedoed the team’s chances.

In cases like these, the sooner the red light flashes, the greater the opportunity to build for next season. Unfortunately, many fantasy owners are all too quick to bail on a bad season, which can lead to the bane of keeper leagues’ existence: the dump trade.

The best teams will always take advantage of the worst teams in late-season trades as long as there are enticing prospects and future draft picks to acquire. Limits on minor league rosters or in-season salary caps can help mitigate the damage.

Green light: The team is poised to compete for a championship and might only need minor tweaks to shore up any weaknesses.

But making even a small trade at the deadline requires having something of value to give up in return. One often-overlooked quality of championship-caliber teams is they have assets that can be traded – prospects, cheap keepers or draft picks – without hurting their chances of short-term success.

That’s why it’s important, even when playing for this season, to keep an eye on the future.

Yellow light: The team is on the edge of contention but could be a factor by acquiring an impact player or two.

This is where most fantasy teams likely fall as the trade deadline approaches. The decision to go all-in now or build for the future can be a paralyzing one.

Major league teams within striking distance in the wild-card race are likely going through the same calculations fantasy owners are. The odds might not be in their favor individually, but so many things can still happen, especially with so much time left in the regular season.

Taking the first bold step can sometimes deter others from making moves of their own.

One final thing to keep in mind: Flags fly forever.

There’s always a chance that prospect you’ve stashed away isn’t going to be an impact player in the majors. That coveted first-round farm pick next year might never pan out. People tend to favor minimizing risk over taking calculated gambles, even when the reward is substantial.

Don’t be a slave to the traffic light. If there’s opportunity to make a blockbuster trade that could result in a fantasy title, a yellow light doesn’t have to mean slow down. It can just as easily be a sign it’s time to put the pedal to the metal.