(*) ROTISSERIE: 2020 NL-LABR recap

Rotisserie

Doug Dennis

Mar 6 2020 1:04am

(*) ROTISSERIE: 2020 NL-LABR recap

Doug Dennis

Mar 6 2020

Going into this NL-LABR auction, I had three major thoughts in mind. First, the $30 pitching staff that had worked very well a few years back had not worked at all for the past two years. Second, the majority of owners in this league employ a stars-and-scrubs approach, and there would likely be better hunting in the middle rounds of the auction that at the beginning and the end. Third, Dave Potts noted at First Pitch Arizona this past fall that younger players are most often over-hyped and overbought, and that the boring, steady players often come at a discount. That last point stuck with me all winter.

With these guideposts, I decided I would try to employ a more balanced approach, with $65 allocated to pitching and $195 to bats, that I would try to spread the money across the bats in the $15-20 range as much as I could, and that I would not leave myself scrambling for innings the way I did in 2019. I create a pretty standard cheat sheet for this auction, using a blend of BaseballHQ.com projections, Steamer projections, ADPs, and information taken from other parts of the BaseballHQ.com and Fangraphs.com websites. In addition, I looked at players hyped by other writers in this league to keep in the back of my mind as the auction went on.

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One hour into the auction, I did not have a single player. That was unintentional and very difficult to do, but players were still going at dollar values above the prices on my cheat sheet, and there remained plenty of targets within my range. But it certainly did feel as though my margins for error were getting smaller and smaller—the pressure was building, XM radio was actively questioning whether I was even awake, and next to me, Grey Albright, Chief Razzer of Razzball.com was tremendously worried. "Get a player, dude, before it's too late!" he said about 100 times.

When I got my first player, Yadier Molina (C, STL) for $8, I did a victory lap around the room, er, bar. Yes, we held our auction in a conference room at a hotel that had been turned into a bar/viewing area. I did a victory lap of that. I had a single player, and it was the ancient Yadier Molina. This cannot be what Dave Potts had in mind, right?

At the break, the XM radio crew brought me in for the annual, "What the hell are you doing??" interview. Maybe I deserved it. But I stuck to the plan and more or less got the team I thought I might get:

DougD (bat)       AB  R   HR RBI  SB  BA  V   pd
============     === === === === === === === ===
Contreras        490  67  28  75   3 268 $15 $17
Y.Molina         448  51  14  64   6 271 $11  $8
Hosmer           597  71  19  85   2 260 $12 $16
Longoria         505  64  22  75   2 260 $12  $8
Votto            528  82  17  65   5 281 $17 $13
McMahon          560  70  25  85   4 262 $14 $12
C.Seager         465  74  19  78   1 278 $14 $21
Gregorius        515  77  19  85   5 279 $18 $17
J.McNeil         572  93  22  79   8 304 $26 $24
B.Reynolds       557  89  19  75   5 295 $22 $17
Braun            471  74  23  76  14 278 $21 $13
Winker           418  57  17  53   1 289 $13  $7
A.Dickerson      378  57  15  52   3 269 $10  $5
T.Edman          482  68  21  45  19 272 $19 $17
=================================================
total           6986 994 280 992  79 276 $222 $195(+27)

DougD (pit)       W Sv   IP   K   ERA WHIP  V   pd 
============     == ==  ===  === ==== ==== === ===
Price            11  0  145  166 3.48 1.16 $17 $15
Hendricks        11  0  189  160 3.33 1.13 $21 $15
L.Weaver         13  0  160  158 3.60 1.24 $15 $10
K.H.Kim           7  2  131  116 3.85 1.38  $4  $3
M.Kelly           9  0  123  112 4.17 1.35  $3  $2
T.Mahle           7  0  131  119 4.05 1.34  $3  $2
A.Miller          4  4   51   68 3.88 1.31  $2  $1
W.Harris          3  6   65   70 3.18 1.09  $8  $2
A.Bradley         4 36   73   76 3.08 1.26 $19 $15
=================================================
total            69 48 1068 1045 3.64 1.25 $91 $65(+26)

The names are not exciting. But if these players produce these numbers, this team will be in contention. The next day at the panel for all of the NL-LABR participants, Rick Wolf commented that this team is preseason projected to win. I will tell you that the preseason projection winner is rarely the in-season actual production winner. So there is work to be done. For one thing, steals went at a high premium and I was forced to choose either to give up some ground in that category, or abandon the strategy and pay a bit more for steals and lose in another area. This league allows trades, though, so there is not as much importance to coming out of the auction with a balanced team. This has worked well for me in the past with a $30 pitching staff, and it seems that I will be looking for steals when that category stratifies, as it always seems to do.

I will also be looking for a closer. This is not unusual for me; I bought one closer last year and ended up with four at one point. Just the nature of this particular league. I was happy with the innings total purchased. That is unusual for me. I typically go for ratios with pitching and tried to do that again. I don't think this is a winning staff, but I do think it is a playable pitching staff that can improve in this format.

Overall, and despite the preseason projections, I have many worries. I am well aware of Fangraphs.com Jeff Zimmermann's aging curves. I am well aware of the injury histories here. And I am well aware of how hard it is to replace position players in this league. I bought some position flexibility to help me: Tommy Edman (3B, STL), Jeff McNeil (OF, NYM), and Ryan McMahon (2B, COL) can allow me move players around as needed.

My reserve selections were Jaylin Davis (OF, SF), Lane Thomas (OF, STL), Jimmy Nelson (RHP, LA), Alex Young (RHP, ARI), Carlos Estévez (RHP, COL), and my last reserve pick was Corey Knebel (RHP, MIL). You never know.

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