(*) NFBC: Player moves and early 2014 draft results
Dec 16 2013
Impact of Player Movement
There’s little doubt that Robinson Canó was the biggest winner of this baseball’s off-season as he signed a guaranteed 10-year, $240 million deal with the Seattle Mariners. He went from one coast to the other and from the elite franchise with the most World Series titles to a franchise that has never even made it to a World Series. It was the biggest move so far this off-season.
But while the move was good for Cano, it wasn’t so good for his value in fantasy baseball. The game’s best second baseman hit .314 last year with 27 homers, 107 RBIs, 7 SB and 81 runs. Over the last seven seasons with the New York Yankees, Cano has averaged .309-25-97-5 and 94 runs per year. He has been a first-round fantasy pick every year since 2010 and this year appeared to be no different as he was going in the Top 6 overall in early NFBC drafts.
But everything changed once he signed with Seattle. The move from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Field will inevitably hurt his offensive totals and playing on a Mariners’ team that finished 22nd in the league in scoring will also hurt his offensive production. This move west has not been good for Cano’s fantasy value, as NFBC owners picked him 9th, 13th and 20th in the three drafts held after he signed. Could Cano fall out of the first round in this year’s fantasy drafts? And are fantasy owners over-reacting to this move to Seattle? We’ll find out soon enough.
But not every player has seen their fantasy value fall with the big bucks. Jacoby Ellsbury went from Boston to the Yankees with a 7-year, $153 million deal and it only helped his fantasy stature. The short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium can only help his power numbers and with better health he should top last year’s 52 stolen bases. He was going 12th to 15th in NFBC drafts before this signing, but in three of our last four NFBC Draft Champions drafts he’s gone 6th overall. That’s a nice step up.
Prince Fielder is also receiving a nice bump since his trade from Detroit. He’s going from a tough hitter’s park in Comerica Park to a friendly hitters’ park in Arlington and fantasy owners love the move. He was going 29th to 32nd in NFBC drafts before the trade, but in our last four NFBC drafts he’s gone 18th, 18th, 16th and 11th. He could easily be a Top-15 pick by March.
The Yankees lost another star to free agency this off-season when Curtis Granderson signed with the Mets for four years and $60 million. Again, leaving Yankee Stadium for a place like Citi Field won’t help his offensive production and fantasy owners certainly realize that. In the NFBC early drafts, Granderson went from an ADP of 70 to being picked as low as 141st overall. Look for Granderson to settle into the 125 range, but it’s a big drop-off from where he would have been.
At the top
So who are the top guys going in NFBC drafts this year? Mike Trout is going No. 1 in the majority of our drafts, followed by Miguel Cabrera. Nobody else is being picked in the Top 2, although Paul Goldschmidt is a solid No. 3, followed by Andrew McCutchen. Clayton Kershaw is going 5th, which is the highest I can remember a pitcher going since we started the NFBC in 2004.
The biggest Wild Card in the first round is Ryan Braun, who was suspended for 65 games in 2013 for PED use. Fantasy owners aren’t sure what to expect from Braun in 2014, but they aren’t leaving his skill set just yet. He was going 13th to 15th in earlier NFBC drafts, but recently we’ve seen him go 11th, 7th, 6th and 7th. I think he will be a Top-10 pick when the big money NFBC drafts roll around in March.
A complete look at the first round ADPs in our early NFBC Draft Champions Leagues:
1. Mike Trout
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Chris Davis
7. Ryan Braun
8. Jacoby Ellsbury
9. Hanley Ramírez
10. Adam Jones
11. Carlos Gonzalez
12. Robinson Canó
13. Troy Tulowitzki
14. Joey Votto
15. Bryce Harper
It’s interesting to note that nine of these players were consensus first round picks last year, too: Trout, Cabrera, McCutchen, Kershaw, Braun, CarGo, Cano, Tulowitzki and Votto. Even Harper found his way into the Top 15 by late March, so the turnover is less than expected.
We’ve also seen Yu Darvish picked in the first round recently, going as high as 7th overall twice. Also reaching the Top 15 in NFBC drafts were Fielder, Jason Kipnis and Evan Longoria.
One of the more interesting players to watch this off-season is Albert Pujols, who has been a first round fantasy pick every year since 2002. However, last year’s injury-riddled season has him dropping to the third and even fourth round this year. Pujols has gone anywhere from 31st overall to 52nd overall in NFBC drafts, usually going around pick 44. He could be great value at that spot.
Matt Kemp is also falling into the third round and we’ve seen him go anywhere from 36th to 59th. Billy Hamilton is another interesting name to watch as he’s gone anywhere from number 74 to 102. He’s probably the biggest wild card of Draft Day because he has the potential to steal 70+ bases if he can become the Reds’ regular center fielder and hit for good average, but nothing is guaranteed with this prospect.
It should be a fun drafting season and I’ll guide you along the way with weekly columns on the latest trends and analysis from NFBC drafts. Good luck in all of your off-season preparations and let’s turn every draft into a winning team. We can do that with early preparation and a thorough understanding of the player pool. Good luck.
(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premiere season-long fantasy baseball contest. Check out the NFBC at nfbc.stats.com and find the contest that fits your style of play. You can also follow Greg on Twitter @GregAmbrosius)
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