(*) NFBC: The Next Yu?
Jan 6 2014
Masahiro Tanaka is the great unknown in fantasy drafts this year, and people are staking their fortunes on the big right-hander before ever seeing him pitch. Everyone seems to expecting him to become 2014’s version of Yu Darvish or the next Jose Fernandez. One look at his stats from the Japan Pacific League and you can’t blame anyone for picking Tanaka sight unseen.
That being said, the price is definitely reaching unprecedented heights. Before it was certain that Tanaka would be posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball club to MLB teams, Tanaka was going in the 13th to 15th rounds of early NFBC drafts. But in late December, when a $20 million posting fee was agreed upon, everything changed with Tanaka.
Before even knowing which MLB team he would sign with, Tanaka’s fantasy value began to soar. Forget about that early season ADP of 185 in the NFBC. In the last week of NFBC drafts, Tanaka has gone numbers 93, 84, 89, 84 and 84. He’s a sixth-round pick in our 15-team drafts with the potential to rise slightly higher if he lands in a pitching-friendly ballpark like Safeco Field or with a top team like the Yankees.
Even when Yu Darvish arrived on the scene in 2012 he didn’t create as much buzz as Tanaka is now. Darvish never went in the 6th round in 2012 and he was more of a Top-125 pick than a Top-100 pick. And their paths from Japan were similar—Darvish pitched seven seasons in the Japan League and went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA his last season in Nippon Ham, with 276 strikeouts in 232 innings. As a rookie with the Rangers, he went 16-9 with a 3.90 ERA, striking out 221 batters in 191.1 IP.
Tanaka won’t strike out as many MLB hitters as Darvish, but he could have the same type of immediate success in the majors. In seven seasons in the Japan Pacific League, Tanaka went 99-35 with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.108 WHIP. He struck out 1,238 batters in 1,315 innings, while finishing with 53 complete games and 18 shutouts. His 2013 numbers are almost too good to be true as he went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA, 0.943 WHIP and 183 strikeouts in 212 IP. Those are big-boy numbers.
The potential for another Jose Fernandez-type of rookie season has fantasy owners all giddy as Draft Day approaches. The NFBC holds new drafts daily, so it’s fun to watch his value increase with each passing day. To see him go from 185 to 84 in December proves that if you want this 25-year-old, you can’t wait around for him anymore. He’s now going as a Top 20 starting pitcher and is being selected between proven talents like Aníbal Sánchez and Matt Cain. That’s pretty amazing.
We’ll soon find out if Tanaka has the stuff to merit this newfound love. My feeling is that once people find out where he’s playing and get a chance to see him pitch this spring that his value will continue to stay high. He’s probably not going to rise much further—he’s already in a territory where we have proven starters—but don’t plan on waiting on him if you like what you see on paper. NFBC owners have shown in our pay drafts that they will pay big-time for his services, even without laying eyes on him.
Next week I’ll be in Las Vegas for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) conference and drafting in the 13-team FSTA Industry League. It’s a great time to compete with other industry writers (including this site’s own Ron Shandler), especially when you are drafting in January before everyone’s cheat sheets are published.
Thankfully, I have dozens of NFBC results to scan over before heading into this draft. But one thing I’ve learned through the years is that NFBC owners will jump on starting pitchers well before industry writers do. I can almost guarantee that I can wait and still get starting pitchers at good values at the FSTA draft and don’t be surprised if magazine rankings also have SPs lower than they may go in your leagues. It’s hard for industry writers to adjust to our changing game.
This week I competed in a 14-team Rotoworld.com magazine draft and my point was proven. Here were the top SPs drafted and their draft spots compared to NFBC’s ADPs for each of these pitchers:
Player RW draft NFBC ADP =================== ======== ======== Clayton Kershaw 13th 5 Yu Darvish 29th 15 Stephen Strasburg 42nd 34 Adam Wainwright 45th 31 Max Scherzer 46th 26 Justin Verlander 52nd 43 Jose Fernandez 53rd 29 Chris Sale 62nd 50 Cole Hamels 78th 63 David Price 79th 53
I’m not saying that the NFBC owners are wilder for pitching than industry writers are, or that industry writers aren’t lured in by the change in pitching stats. But high-stakes players are definitely jumping on the starting pitchers much earlier these days and I think you’ll find industry cheat sheets still are very much offense-oriented. If you’re in a draft like that, don’t be afraid to zig when others are zagging because you may find values like Fernandez and Price like the ones above that are just too good to resist.
If you’re looking for some later-round pitching bargains, here are a few to consider: Johnny Cueto (ADP of 191 after an injury-riddled season), Taijuan Walker (220), Chris Archer (231), Alex Wood (280) and Martín Pérez (339). Don’t be surprised if rookies Mark Appel, Jarred Cosart, James Paxton and Jameson Taillon also make positive impressions in 2014.
Pitching is becoming more important every year in fantasy baseball, so take my advice and adjust to those changes when preparing your draft lists. By doing that, you won’t be caught off-guard when you see earlier-than-expected runs on starting pitchers this year.
(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premiere season-long fantasy baseball contest. Check out the NFBC at nfbc.stats.com and find the contest that fits your style of play. You can also follow Greg on Twitter @GregAmbrosius)
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