(*) NFBC: Early ADP results, 2015
Jan 27 2015
There's a toy in the fantasy baseball industry that allows owners to get to their final destination—which of course is Victory Lane—much, much easier. It's called ADPs, which is short for Average Draft Positions, and it's like GPS for fantasy owners. We all know where the finish line is, but ADPs find the right path to get us there.
And nobody has better ADPs than the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), the premiere high-stakes fantasy baseball contest in the industry. NFBC owners began drafting in mid-November and have already completed dozens of pay drafts. Those results have formed our ADPs, which show you all of the latest trends that you can expect to see on Draft Day.
Some of those trends might surprise you. Yes, Jose Altuve is going in the Top 10 in early NFBC drafts, so if you thought you could get him in the middle of the second round, think again. Same with Anthony Rendon, who is a Top 12 choice in NFBC drafts so far.
Of course, several players enter 2015 with question marks. Let's examine where those players are going in NFBC drafts so that you can set your GPS accordingly:
Clayton Kershaw (LHP, LA): He's being selected in the Top 5 in almost every NFBC draft, and he went 5th in the recent FSTA Industry League draft. His ADP in the NFBC is now 3, which is the highest for a starting pitcher in the NFBC's 12-year history. Why? Because Kershaw is head and shoulders above his peers. Remember, the league ERA last year was 3.73; Kershaw finished 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA despite missing some starts in April. You can build a winning fantasy team around this Cy Young winner.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL): Tulo's ADP in the NFBC is 15 and he went 18th in the FSTA draft. The injury-riddled veteran was an MVP candidate last year when he hit .340 with 21 homers and 52 RBIs in 91 games, but then his season ended in August with hip surgery. Fantasy owners are still lining up for his services, but beware the injury history. Also, if he would get traded out of Colorado, his value might take a hit, due to hitting .417-14-35 at home and only .257-7-17 on the road. He's a risky pick this high.
Robinson Canó (2B, SEA): The move to Seattle hurt Cano so much that he went from a Top 10 pick in 2013 to a current 26th overall in NFBC drafts. He's still the top second baseman to get, but his 2014 line of .314-14-82-10 was disappointing. Interestingly, he hit more homers at Safeco Field (9) last year than on the road (5). He's back on the field after breaking a toe in the Japan Series, but it's another reason why his value is falling this off-season.
Ryan Braun (OF, MIL): Braun battled a thumb injury for the second straight year and finally relented to a cryotherapy procedure this off-season and he says he's ready. He was horrible down the stretch, hitting only .226-8-29 after the All-Star break and only .266-19-81 overall. If healthy, he's still a Top 20 player, but fantasy owners are concerned about his health and no PEDs, which explains why he's going 25th in the NFBC drafts.
Bryce Harper (OF, WAS): He became an early second round pick last year because of his potential, but he failed all fantasy owners by playing in only 100 games and hitting just .273-13-32-2. He missed two months of the season with a torn ligament in his thumb. His ADP in the NFBC is 32, but we've seen him go in the second round—again, because owners still love his potential.
Prince Fielder (1B, TEX) and Joey Votto (1B, CIN): Both of these players were first round picks in 2014 and now Fielder is going 70th overall in the NFBC and Votto is going 76th. In the FSTA Draft, Fielder went 87th and Votto 88th. Fielder was limited to 42 games last year before having neck surgery, while Votto played in only 62 games due to a quad strain. NFBC owners don't trust either one, but at some point there seems to be value here. Signs point to about the 6th or 7th round.
Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM): He will be 18 months removed from Tommy John Surgery when Opening Day rolls around in April, but the Mets said they will still be careful with him and limit his innings in 2015. He was an elite pitcher in 2013 when he struck out 191 batters in 178 innings, but NFBC owners are hesitant with him as he's going 67th overall in NFBC drafts. At the FSTA draft, he went 99th overall.
Dee Gordon (2B, MIA) and Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN): Speed is hard to find this year, so these two guys are going right next to each other in the third round of NFBC drafts. Gordon led the majors with 64 stolen bases in 2014 and he qualifies at second base, so he's going earlier than Hamilton at 39th overall. Hamilton had 56 SBs last year, but he struggled down the stretch, hitting just .200-1-10 with 18 SBs after the All-Star break. Still, his ADP is 43 and he went 52nd at the FSTA Draft.
Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, NYY): Tanaka's ADP in the NFBC is 148.12 and he's the 48th pitcher going off the board, 34th SP overall. He missed most of the second half of last season with the elbow injury and he didn't have surgery to repair it. Is it completely healed or will we see more of the same this year? During his first 18 starts before the elbow injury, he was 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 135 Ks in 129.1 IP. He had two September starts after missing 10 weeks to rest the elbow and he was solid in his first outing but horrendous against the Red Sox in his second outing, giving up 7 earned runs in 1.2 IP. The Yankees chalked up that last performance to rust, but it's still concerning.
There are other question marks in this year’s draft, so check out the industry’s best GPS—the NFBC ADPs—to help you get to your final destination. Good luck everyone.
(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premiere high-stakes contest. The grand prize in the NFBC Main Event this year is $125,000. Check out all of their contests at nfbc.stats.com and contact Greg at gambrosius@stats.com for more information.)
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