(*) PT TOMORROW: AL East—Less-than-Hardy welcome for Alvarez?
Mar 13 2016
In Playing Time Today, Matt Dodge recently offered a comprehensive rundown of what the addition of Pedro Álvarez (DH, BAL) means in the near term for the Orioles playing time allocations. At least one other potential impact deserves mention, however.
As noted in local press reports after the signing, Baltimore has not told Alvarez he can leave his glove at home. Alvarez, of course, hasn’t been a particularly positive contributor in the field, with a negative defensive WAR as a third baseman in 2014 and as a first baseman in 2015.
Still, the possibility exists that Alvarez could see significant time at third base in 2016, particularly for a team that has shown some degree of indifference to defense with its apparent decision to tolerate either Mark Trumbo (RF, BAL) or Chris Davis (1B, BAL) as a regular presence in right field.
As noted in the 2016 Baseball Forecaster, shortstop J.J. Hardy (SS, BAL) played all of 2015 with a torn labrum in left shoulder, which he chose to rehabilitate rather than treat with surgery. If the injury flares back up, it could lead to a scenario in which Alvarez is needed to play 3B regularly, with Manny Machado (3B, BAL) moving over to shortstop.
Might that scenario unfold, even in the absence of a debilitating injury to Hardy? After all, as the Forecaster also noted, Hardy’s power skills have been in a nosedive for the past two seasons, as has his xBA. While Hardy is a three-time Gold Glove winner, his defense also slipped in 2015, perhaps in part due to the injury.
Any sort of benching of Hardy would be a hard pill for the Orioles to swallow, given that they owe him $26.5 million over the next two seasons. That contract will likely buy Hardy at least some leeway to show that his rehab has been successful and a rebound is possible. But at some point, the conclusion that the team would be better off without Hardy in the lineup may become inescapable.
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Given the fact that he reported to camp this spring in less-than-ideal shape, Pablo Sandoval (3B, BOS) may have to get off to a strong start this season with both the bat and glove to prevent a mutiny among the Fenway faithful.
The first year of Sandoval’s five-year, $95-million contract was a disappointing one: A relatively empty .245 BA that was only marginally the result of a 27% hit rate. Sandoval has shown little life this spring, collecting just his second hit in 16 AB March 12. He has also committed a pair of errors.
While manager John Farrell may not cave to public pressure to bench Sandoval, Travis Shaw (1B, BOS) is trying to apply some pressure of his own. Through March 12, Shaw was 10-for-19 with 2 HR, and five of his six spring appearances have come at third base. That may simply be due to his relative inexperience at the position—he’s played first base nearly four times as much—but it is hard not to read it as the team exploring alternatives to Sandoval, or at least sending him a message.
As noted in the Baseball Forecaster, Shaw would have 25-HR upside if he can find regular playing time. As things stand now, he is set to back up not only Sandoval but Hanley Ramírez (1B, BOS), while perhaps seeing some time in LF as well. If Shaw continues to hit, the team will have to find playing time for him, and right now, 3B looks like as good a spot as any.
The New York Yankees are expected to welcome Brett Gardner (OF, NYY) back to the field this week. Gardner has been taking things slow this spring as he has been dealing with lingering soreness from a bone bruise in his wrist, which he suffered during his team’s Wild Card playoff game against Houston the previous fall.
While the Yankees have expressed confidence about Gardner’s Opening Day availability, the fact that he is still dealing with the residual effects of the injury more than five months after he suffered it should give drafters at least a moment’s pause.
What shouldn’t be a concern, as Facts/Flukes analyst Derrick Boyd pointed out earlier this offseason, is Gardner’s skill set. With health, Gardner should produce 15+ HR and 20+ SB, but in Gardner’s case, that’s hardly a given.
If Gardner does miss time, it would be another route by which Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) could acquire playing time to fulfill the breakout potential recently described by Batters Buyers Guide columnist Stephen Nickrand.
While the Rays say they plan to be patient as new shortstop Brad Miller (SS, TAM) works through his throwing issues, the problem recently prompted Tampa Bay Times beat writer Marc Topkin to muse about who may be next in line, if his struggles become too much to bear.
Last year, former top prospect Tim Beckham (SS, TAM) saw his first significant major league action, but a 66% contact rate suggested he may not be fit for a full-time role, particularly given his struggles against right-handed pitching.
Likewise, some time in Triple-A would seem to be in order for Nick Franklin (2B, TAM) after a dreadful 101 AB in the majors last season (.158/.213/.307).
Topkin indicated that the team is intrigued with utility man Taylor Motter (OF, TAM), who has collected seven hits (2 2B, HR) in 19 AB while splitting time between short and outfield this spring. The 2011 17th-round pick may not make the Opening Day roster but could be among the first players summoned when a need arises due to injury or otherwise. At AAA-Durham in 2015, Motter posted a .292/.366/.471 line with 14 HR and 8 SB in 558 plate appearances.
Topkin even floated the idea of the team jumping top prospect Daniel Robertson (SS, TAM) to the majors, even though he only has about 300 AB at Double-A to his credit (.274/.363/.415).
But obviously, Plan A is Miller, and there at least has been nothing wrong with his bat this spring, as he was 6-for-14 with a pair of doubles through March 12.
Don’t look now, but Michael Saunders (OF, TOR) appears healthy. In his first 20 AB, the oft-injured Sanders has seven hits, four for extra bases (3 HR, 2B).
Given his struggles to stay on the field the past two years, it is easy to forget about Saunders’ display of above-average power in 2012 and 2013, which yielded 31 HR in 913 AB.
Saunders and his hard-earned “F” health grade are not for the faint of heart. Chances are, the brakes will be put on his once-promising running game in the hopes of avoiding a recurrence of the knee woes that cost him nearly all of 2015. Still, Saunders seems intent on taking his place in the Blue Jays powerful lineup, which produced 127 more runs than the next highest scoring team in the majors last year.
If Saunders’ health holds, he should help ensure that Dalton Pompey (OF, TOR) begins 2015 in Triple-A. Pompey is off to a bit of a slower start in spring training, with just three hits in first 17 AB, though two have gone for extra bases (2B, HR).
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