(*) MASTER NOTES: Midway Fantasy All Stars

Five HQ analysts had a roundtable discussion of the midyear fantasy baseball awards on the edition of BaseballHQ Radio that came out on Friday. That’s July 10, 2015, if you’re reading this in the future while you try to figure out how many Arnolds there are, and which ones are on your side.

Now that we know which players are have been the best (and, in one case, the worst) of the season so far, it’s time to choose the full fantasy all-star team. And what better method than to just let me pick all the stars? In one stroke, I have vastly increased the efficiency of the process, while paying no attention to cumbersome and unwelcome elements, such as people telling me I’m wrong.

Actually, I did apply a method. This is not the usual all-star selection process, a weak and unjustified exercise where the players are chosen by reputation, team-based online hackathon, or reading the entrails of a ballpark bratwurst. Nosirree. This here is some serious analysis, and I’m proud to say it’s worth every penny you’re paying for it.

Here’s what I did. First, I compared every player’s auction value at the Tout Wars Mixed Auction dollar value (TW$) with his current 5x5 dollar value (YTD$), and calculated the player’s profit or Loss over his bid (P/L). To-date dollar value was determined by the BaseballHQ.com Custom Draft Guide, with On-Base Percentage (BHQCDGYTDwOBP).

But profit isn't the true harbinger of fantasy importance. You wouldn't want a team full of 23 players whose $9 per-player profit was created by being $10 producers at $1 salaries, would you? So I used an extra step I also use for calculating keeper value: I added the P/L back to the YTD performance to create a “Fantasy Value” (VAL).

Finally, I sorted each position from most VAL to least, and used those results to fill a full 23-player standard fantasy roster with a $175-$85 split.

You can disagree with the method, but in keeping with my method as noted above, I won’t pay any attention.

So how would this all-star squad fare if it were actually in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction league? As you’d expect, pretty well:

POS HITTER            TW$  YTD$  P/L  VAL    HR RBI  SB   OBP   R
=================================================================
 C  Vogt,Stephen      $ 3  $29  +$26  $55    13  53   0  .380  39
 C  Grandal,Yasmani   $ 8  $22  +$14  $36    13  34   0  .384  31
1B  Goldschmidt,Paul  $44  $56  +$12  $68    20  67  15  .466  58
3B  Machado,Manny     $12  $33  +$21  $54    18  47  13  .360  53
CO  Teixeira,Mark     $ 2  $24  +$22  $46    20  59   1  .356  37
2B  Kipnis,Jason      $22  $32  +$10  $42     6  36  10  .416  56
SS  Crawford,Brandon  $ 0  $19  +$19  $38    12  49   4  .339  39
SS  Peralta,Jhonny    $ 7  $18  +$11  $29    11  42   1  .352  36
OF  Harper,Bryce      $33  $49  +$16  $65    25  60   4  .471  58
OF  Pollock,A.J.      $ 9  $28  +$19  $47    10  38  18  .346  54
OF  Gardner,Brett     $14  $29  +$15  $44     9  39  15  .373  60
OF  Cain,Lorenzo      $ 3  $23  +$20  $43     6  36  15  .364  48
OF  Martinez,J.D.     $15  $28  +$13  $41    24  58   2  .344  52
DH  Rodriguez,Alex    $ 4  $25  +$21  $46    16  47   1  .390  45
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL                $176 $415 +$239 $654   203 665  99  .380 666

Any fantasy team that amasses $415 in performance on $176 in cost is going to be reckoned with. And indeed, if this offense were in Tout Mixed, it would be in first place across the board, with leads of

• 58 HR
• 138 RBI
• 17 SB
• 36 OBP points
• 129 Runs

After running the same method through pitchers, it became obvious that the best play was to punt Saves. In 5x5, closers aren't that valuable, especially since they tend to get bid up to non-bargain levels. Adding the three most valuable closers made this all-star team competitive in Saves with the current actual leaders, but at the cost of sliding down in all the other pitching categories, especially Wins and Ks.

By punting Saves, the pitchers dominated as much as the hitters:

PITCHER            TW$  YTD$  P/L  VAL    W   ERA   WHIP    K
=============================================================
Keuchel,Dallas     $ 1  $28  +$27  $55   11  2.14   0.99  110
Archer,Chris       $10  $27  +$17  $44    9  2.18   0.95  141
Scherzer,Max       $29  $33  +$ 4  $37    9  1.82   0.78  139
Greinke,Zack       $21  $27  +$ 6  $33    7  1.48   0.89   98
Burnett,A.J.       $ 1  $16  +$15  $31    7  1.99   1.21   94
Gray,Sonny         $15  $23  +$ 8  $31    9  2.09   0.99   97
Hammel,Jason       $ 3  $15  +$12  $27    5  2.89   0.95  104
Gallardo,Yovani    $ 0  $13  +$13  $26    7  2.56   1.14   72
Martinez,Carlos    $ 1  $13  +$12  $25    9  2.70   1.25  105
-------------------------------------------------------------
                   $81 $195 +$114 $309   73  2.18   1.01  960

The profits aren’t so big, but big enough. Even taking the “stick” in Saves, this pitching staff again sweeps the categories, and again by impressive margins:

• 13 Wins
• 0.48 ERA points
• 0.12 WHIP points
• 183 strikeouts

The all-star team total is 211 points, despite spending three dollars short of the $260 maximum.

Individual Results: Hitters

The top VAL catchers this season are Stephen Vogt of OAK and Yasmani Grandal of LA. Buster Posey has actually been the top raw producer among catchers, earning  $31. But his Tout owner paid $27 for those $31, gaining a modest profit of $4. I'd guess the same is true in most leagues. By contrast, Vogt and Grandal together cost $11, and have combined for $40 in profit. And by the way—they’re both ahead of Posey in OBP, and they're both only one behind him in HR.

Choosing Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt as the first base all-star was like choosing Serena Willams as the all-star tennis player. Goldschmidt was the easy unanimous choice by the BaseballHQ Radio Roundtable as the Most Outstanding Fantasy Player of the first half. And no wonder: Goldschmidt ’s YTD has been so ridonkulous that even though he cost $44 at auction (paid by me, and I say "HA!" to all those who said I made a mistake, not that I paid any attention), he’s still turned a profit, and is the top VAL in the game at $68.

It is somewhat common to hear that any owner wants his most expensive or first-round pick to at least return value. When that pick exceeds value, it’s really a huge benefit.

If Goldschmidt continues at his current pace, he’ll finish with about 40 HR, 130 RBI, 30 SB, a .470 (!) OBP and 115 Runs. I did a quick check, and you know how many seasons can match that across the board? None. The closest was in 1996, a 42/40 year by Barry Bonds with a .461 OBP.

Third base was another runaway, with BAL 3B Manny Machado easily taking the honors. Like Posey vs. the Catchers (coming this fall on AMC!), Machado is not the top producing 3B. Josh Donaldson is actually having a better raw year, at over YTD$30. But again, his Tout owner paid over $30 to get it, generating little profit or VAL.

Machado has generated $24 for his $12 auction price, and the resulting $12 profit led to a $36 VAL that is 50% higher than the runner-up, Kris Bryant of the Cubs. If he keeps up his pace, Machado will finish as a 35/25 guy with 100 RBI and Runs. And to think—it wasn’t all that long ago that we were wondering if that leg injury was going to keep Machado from reaching his potential. Note to self: Stop worrying.

Taking all the 1Bs and 3Bs not named Goldschmidt or Machado—which is all of them—we re-sorted the list to get a Corner Infielder. The pick was potential comeback player of the year Mark Teixeira of the Yankees, a $2 Tout Wars pick who has generated YTD$24 and $46 in VAL. This raises two questions. First, could another 40/100 season be in the cards for Teixeira? Second, how much will Tex go for at auction next year, when he will be 67 years old?

At 2B, going into this exercise, I thought Dee Gordon would be the pick. I lost out on him at $18 in the Tout auction, and I thought all those bags and a nifty .360 OBP would make him a cinch. But no. The all-star value at 2B is the Indians’ Jason Kipnis, who has 6 HR and 10 SB, and an OBP well north of .400. That's HUGE, considering how many PA he piles up. Over a full season, swapping a 700-PA .400 OBP player for a normal 600-PA/.335 guy costs a 9000-PA fantasy team five full points of aggregate OBP.

But aye, there's the rub, as they say at the Loch Ness Massage Studio. Plenty of fantasy analysts wonder if Kipnis’ great YTD will continue for fantasy owners. Their big issue is Hit Rate, or BABIP. Kipnis this year is sporting a Hit Rate around 40%, which is well above his career level and very fortunate indeed. Only three hitters in the free-agency era have had full seasons over 40% H%, and I'll go out on a limb and say Kipnis will not be remembered as the equal of Rod Carew or Manny Ramirez (although Jose Herhandez is in play). But there is a chance for a happy ending—Kipnis was at 35% h% just two years ago, so even if there is a regression, it might not be as sharp or deep as some owners fear. And Kipnis is drawing walks at his usual 11% rate, somewhat mitigating OBP downside risk.

Coming into the season, touts everywhere were cautioning that SS was going to be a very weak position in 2015. Everyone was generally right, although I personally spent $29 to capture the sure thing that was Ian Desmond. Like most, I wish I'd seen the $19 season coming from Giants’ SS Brandon Crawford, a Reserve-round pick in Tout, who has 12 HR and more than 40 RBI. BaseballHQ.com’s analysts think Crawford’s power spike is sustainable unless he improves on his FB%, which this year is down around 34%. If/when his HR/F drops back from the mid-teens to the usual 10-11% level, the HRs could dry up.

Our Middle Infielder is Jhonny Peralta of the Cards, who has put together a season whose main purpose seems to be to validate expert opinions that middle-infield production would be unusually paltry. ’Nuf said. Let’s just move on to the outfield.

The top OFs—Bryce Harper of the Nats, AJ Pollock of ARI, Brett Gardner of NYY, Lorenzo Cain of KC and JD Martinez of DET—range from a high-dollar pick to two single-digit guys, with a couple of mid-teens to round it out. Value came from all directions.

Harper, like Goldschmidt, made the all-star cut despite a sizable $33 price tag, by turning in YTD$49 production; add the $16 P/L to his YTD and his VAL of $65 is only a few bucks VAL shy of Goldschmidt's. Pollock, Gardner and Cain have all provided SB (they're all on pace to threaten 30 steals) and OBP. Martinez has been a more traditional power OF, and some analysts worry that his performance might not be sustainable, now that he doesn't get the advantages of having Miguel Cabrera in his lineup. How you react depends on how much you believe in lineup effects. Maybe you should consult a bratwurst.

And finally, since we already mentioned Barry Bonds, why not also include Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees? Once we had all the hitters, A-Rod topped the entire list of the also-rans with his excellent 2015 $46 VAL. If he still played SS, he'd have easily out-VALued Crawford. Say what you will about the other stuff his recent past, this would be a terrific season for a guy 15 years younger, especially the .390 OBP and 30-100 power pace. This year, which should end with Rodriguez passing Cap Anson for #8 all-time in Runs, further cements Rodriguez’ status as a Hall of Fame first-ballot cinch. Except for the other stuff in his recent past.

INDIVIDUAL RESULTS: Pitchers

As noted above, I made an executive decision to punt Saves and make this an All-Star(ter) team. The top overall VAL pitcher was HOU HP Dallas Keuchel, who went for a dollar (!) at Tout despite his fine 2014. That knocking sound you hear is 14 fantasy experts banging their heads on their desks.

Despite what is now a season-and-a-half of success, the experts still have concerns, starting with Keuchel’s league-average Dom. But a 64% GB% (second only to Brett Anderson among MLB starters) has had a huge effect on Keuchel's success. I still worry about a 24% H%, which looks highly lucky, even considering Keuchel’s GB propensity and the Astros’ excellent defense. All that said, if he's anywhere near his 2014 results at the end of 2015, he won't go for a buck next year. Set Keuchel’s 2015 auction over/under at $22.

Two top “name” starters, Max Scherzer of WAS and Zack Greinke of LA made the squad, as did two underpriced aces, Chris Archer of TAM and Sonny Gray of OAK. No further comment required, except to say Scherzer and Greinke make a decent case for willingness to invest in ace pitching. Although Clayton Kershaw owners will disagree. So far, anyway.

The other four all-star starters made top VAL scores because they produced double-digit YTD$ and Gain on auction bids were $3 or less and provided $57 in YTD$ on just $5 of TW$ salary:

• A.J. Burnett of PIT gets his Ks the old-fashioned way—by throwing a lot of innings at a pedestrian Dom. Warning here: Burnett’s ERA is a run-and-a-quarter under his xERA because of an 84% Strand Rate. Interestingly, Burnett has really cut his walks and his HBP.
• Jason Hammel of CHC has been piling up strikeouts and all but eliminated walks (1.6 bb/9 Ctl), leading to a WHIP under 1.0. Be warned that Hammel has in the past allowed too many HRs, and he goes into the break with a tender hamstring. If you asked me, I’d say Hammel is the least likely player to be on the end-of-season fantasy all-star team. Then again, if you ask me, Ian Desmond was worth $29.
• Yovani Gallardo of TEX is another cautionary note about lucky half-seasons. He has a 27% H% and 80% Strand, and his xERA is a run-and-a-quarter lower than his actual, indicating the possibility of a shift for the worse.
• Carlos Martínez of STL has taken owners on a roller-coaster ride. In four starts from May 3 to May 19, he went 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 3.0 Dom. He looked terrible and overmatched. Then in his next four starts, he went 2-0, with four PQS-DOM starts, a 1.80/0.92 line and a 9.0 Dom. Also, he throws a lot of pitches—almost 16 per inning—which keeps him from getting deep into games (5.9 IP/g) and cuts into Win opportunities on a high-win STL club. Martinez is tantalizing and could fun to ride the rest of the year, but you might need a strong stomach.

Of course picking fantasy all-stars is a massive exercise in hindsight. It would be awesome if we had the year-end stats when we did our auctions. Or if we could come back from the future like one or more of the Arnolds.

In the meantime, though, there might be a few lessons in this year’s half-year stars. But if there are, I’ll be jiggered if I can see them.

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