FANALYTICS: One Month—The search for prognosticating equilibrium

As much as forecasting performance is important in playing fantasy baseball, it all comes down to the two core elements: skill and playing time.

In a perfect world, those with greater skill would receive more playing time, but for the most part, projecting each of these elements is a completely separate process. We forecast skill by looking for trends and indicators that point to growth or decline. Playing time is a jigsaw puzzle where we attempt to fit roles into each MLB team's overall plan. And then we integrate both elements into a statistical forecast.

The challenge, as discussed last week, is that we have greater accuracy projecting skill over a longer time horizon, but greater accuracy projecting playing time over a shorter...

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