FANALYTICS: The ever-volatile first round

We trumpet the research every March: "Since 2004, our success rate in projecting which players will earn first-round value is only 36%."

This is discouraging; one would think the very best players would be the most projectable. But every year, we're only able to nail little more than five of the projected top 15 players.

This year's first round would seem to be yielding one of the poorer ROIs. After all, 15 of the the ADP top 20 have spent time on the disabled list and another two have underperformed. But context is everything, and the declining offensive landscape has made even the most outwardly disappointing performances a bit better than they may seem.

At present, just four players from the pre-season top 15 are earning first round...

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